No. Here is the trend in initial claims:
Posted on 04/11/2013 7:02:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
There were 346,000 first-time claims for unemployment benefits, down 42,000 from the week before, the Employment and Training Administration reports.
Meanwhile, the "4-week moving average" of claims was 358,000, up by 3,000 from the previous week's 355,000. That measure smooths out some of the volatility in the numbers.
After recent reports that were disappointing, including last week's news that employers added only 88,000 jobs to their payrolls in March, Thursday's data on jobless claims were a positive switch.
Bloomberg News says the decline in claims was more than forecast and could be a sign that some things that tend to cause unusual swings in data — including holidays such as Easter — have worked their way through the numbers.
"The spike in claims was temporary," Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, tells Bloomberg. "Claims will continue to come down. Things are getting better."
CONTINUING THE JOB NUMBERS:
There were 346,000 first-time claims for unemployment benefits, down 42,000 from the week before, the Employment and Training Administration reports.
Meanwhile, the “4-week moving average” of claims was 358,000, up by 3,000 from the previous week’s 355,000. That measure smooths out some of the volatility in the numbers.
After recent reports that were disappointing, including last week’s news that employers added only 88,000 jobs to their payrolls in March, Thursday’s data on jobless claims were a positive switch.
LOL!
Yep, everything’s coming up roses.
With all this “unexpectedly down 40,000...” week after week, tell me that the weekly claims as of 6 months ago must of been running in the 800,000 range. Am I right?
It’s really strange how the DemocRATS’ “Fun With Numbers” math works.
Yup. Basically it boils down to 42 thousand quit looking thus they are no longer unemployed. Sound logic from the bureau of labor statistics. I got laid off almost 2 years ago and I’m not looking, ergo, I am not unemployed either.
people have stopped applying for unemployment, and started applying for disability.
Well, except for that 4-week moving average that they only note when it happens to go the other way when the weekly looks bad.
Hey NPR, Do some math for me would ya. I just can’t understand it. /s
90 Million Americans out of work and given up on looking for work and The Prestitutes tell me unemployment is a tad bit over 7%, how can that be?
Notice that they keep revising jobless claims for the previous week UPWARDS.
It was reported as 385,000 last week. Now they revised it to 388,000.
I’ve yet to see a DOWNWARD revision. It’s been always an upward revision for the longest time I can remember.
That’s what they call “sharply”??? ROTFL
I really can’t follow these numbers anymore. Last week’s number is revised up so this weeks numbers are more positive but when this weeks numbers get revised up then this week’s numbers will be negative down from last week’s revised number.
The market doesn’t care. It will sweep up and through 15,000 like it’s butter. We should see 16,000 afterwards in short order.
RE: We should see 16,000 afterwards in short order.
Hey, sounds like the last days of the year 2007 and then....
That’s why th 4 week moving average is best. It uses three weeks of revised and current week estimate.
Well because of the way they play with the numbers the jobless rate has to fall, when you take into account all of the people whose benefits have run out! When you decide to ignore such a large segment of the workforce it can only help to improve your numbers.
Analysis from IHS:
U.S. Economy - Data Commentary
Initial Claims (W)
Initial unemployment insurance claims slid by 42,000, to 346,000, in the week ended 6 April. The four-week moving average climbed by 3,000, to 358,000.
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped by 42,000, to 346,000, in the week ended 6 April. On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, claims rose by 37,025, to 353,973.
The week ended 30 March included the Good Friday holiday. Since Easter falls on a different week each year, it is difficult for the government to seasonally adjust figures surrounding this holiday. As a result, seasonally adjusted claims swung upward in the week ended 30 March, and adjusted sharply downward in the week ended 6 April.
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure of unemployment claims, rose to 358,000. The four-week moving averages throughout the month of March and beginning of April are noticeably higher than the averages during the first two months of the year. However, the average is still decidedly lower than it was in 2012.
Continuing benefits programs reported 12,000 fewer claimants in the week ended 30 March, bringing the total down to 3.08 million. Regular benefits typically last for a period of 26 weeks; claimants are required to check in weekly to provide updates on their job search to receive compensation.
Emergency unemployment compensation (EUC), which immediately follows the exhaustion of regular benefits, was provided to 1.84 million people in the week ended 23 March—an increase of 37,929. Extended benefits were available in Alaska during this week, where they were provided to 434 people. According to the March employment report, 39.6% of unemployed Americans have been out of work for over 26 weeks, a slight downward adjustment from 40.2% in February.
In March, the mean period of unemployment was 37.1 weeks, up from 36.9 in January.
This drop in unemployment claims was in line with expectations, despite an uptick in the four-week moving average, which smoothes out volatility in weekly jobless claims. In the past four weeks, weekly unemployment claims have trended a shade higher than the norm in the first two months of the year. Throughout the majority of the first quarter, the four-week moving average of claims has hovered around the low 350,000s. The last time, that the four-week moving average held at such a low level with such consistency was in the first quarter of 2008.
The elevated average includes the week of 30 March and the week of 6 April, in which the Easter-related seasonal adjustment caused a sharp spike in the data, followed by a steep downward correction. Once these weeks are no longer captured in the average, the underlying trend will be isolated.
In the week ended 30 March, four states reported large drops in claims. Six states reported a large increase in claims, citing layoffs in a variety of industries (including construction and food service) as the reason. In the unemployment claims report, a large week-on-week change in claims is defined as a change of more than 1,000. According to the Challenger Job-Cut report, the construction and food service sectors have seen very high rates of turnover in recent months. While these industries do see very high rates of separation, they see even higher hiring rates.
The unemployment rate dropped to 7.6% in March, but it was due to discouraged workers ceasing to look for work. Thus far in 2013, firings have been at a sustainably lower level than they were in 2012. A decline in firings signals greater stability in the labor market, which is a good sign but does not in itself constitute a recovery. To achieve that goal, companies will have to pick up the pace of hiring as well. February’s encouraging jobs number (up 236,000) was followed up by a lackluster March report. In March, employers added a meager 88,000 jobs, far below expectations. This slowdown in hiring, when considered alongside the relatively higher levels of weekly unemployment claims of the past few weeks, raises some concerns about the next employment report. The labor-force participation rate is also a source of concern: it has fallen to a new cyclical low, at 63.3%. We anticipate that April payroll employment will come in between 125,000 and 150,000.
No. Here is the trend in initial claims:
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.