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To: Teacher317
Peak oil is based on the liquid recovery kind not the solid mining type which by the way requires far more energy to extract than the former, hence the need for higher prices. Because of the this, peak oil attributed to Hubbard, really means end of cheap oil. Second peak oil is based on known production curve not supply in the ground though the size of the supply in the ground will usually dictate higher flow rates. All oil fields will at some point have a peak flow rate and then fall off. Technology in essence has allowed us to keep the daily production rates from dropping off in the more mature fields but it comes at a draw back. When the production starts to fall off it will do so at a steep rate as opposed to a gentle one. Also what many don't seem to understand that out of the 4,000+ traditional oil field out there, only about 125 of them produce about 40% of the oil(12 of them produce something like 14% of the daily production). If these numbers don't scare you, then you and anyone else do not understand the magnitude of the problem when these fields start to go into decline which some have.

It's a nice little logic game, but the Peak Oil idea fails to hint at the potential fact that we may not yet have discovered even 0.001% of what exists at this moment.

Potential is not reality. If you where correct about the level of discoveries to be made then we wouldn't be drilling for natural gas or going after the more expensive forms of oil. Your reasoning and logic abilities have right there failed. The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of the drilling holes both on land and in the sea come up dry. Further still not all those that are drilled and show some promise are extractable at current cost or even future cost do to technical problems, logistics, and just plain geology(i.e. what size the field has been determined to be). If things where as you say, then we would be hitting black gold on each drill far more than we are, but that is not happening. Those are the facts.

Also, just assuming that you are correct in your assertion, then that would mean that the vast majority of oil deposits are in many, many places, but at the same time they are far smaller pockets, most likely deeper than most we have found to date. Non of which bodes well given the logistical challenges, the cost in drilling that many more holes for far smaller pockets of oil, the cost associated with deeper wells not to mention the technological problems associated with them. All this means the price of oil would have to be far higher to even begin planning and developing technology to extract. I submit that the price will be to high to develop at any cost(save a technological miracle), since our modern civilization is based on cheap energy to survive and given the size of the population at large.

Also, as far as minerals are concerned we have found most of the large deposits. The cheapest to produce, also usually the largest deposits, go into production first since the commodity market can be rather fickle at times. It is as you say, that there are a lot of minerals in the ground and a lot of potential wealth, but like we are finding with oil the newer discoveries are smaller in size and typically more costly to produce due to far lower concentrations per ton of ore.

Finally, reserves is an accounting game. We see how wall street plays it, the oil companies do the same thing especialy since most of them are government owned. Even the private/public companies don't like to talk about the long term prospects since its not good for the future or their stock price. Peak in the liquid oil category has peaked in 2005, the difference so far has been made up with the more unconventional stuff but how long with that go on when the major fields go into decline. It is at that point when real growth stops, and things start to go in reverse and that includes the good manners of the human race which already are on the precipice do to the mismanagement of the command and control economies that have been created by our would be overlords and our apathy toward the cancer of leftist thought that has permeated every corner and foundation of our civilization. Given that, I think it far more likely to see everything unravel due to this than due to the ceiling called peak oil.
40 posted on 04/14/2013 2:51:28 PM PDT by DarkWaters ("Deception is a state of mind --- and the mind of the state" --- James Jesus Angleton)
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To: DarkWaters

[the solid mining type which by the way requires far more energy to extract than the former]

And a lot more H20 - in places where Whiskey is for drinking, and water is for fightin’ over.


47 posted on 04/14/2013 4:25:21 PM PDT by TArcher ("TO SECURE THESE RIGHTS, governments are instituted among men" -- Does that still work?)
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