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The Case for Overkill
Foreign Policy ^ | JUNE 19, 2013 | MATTHEW KROENIG

Posted on 06/19/2013 10:22:38 PM PDT by nickcarraway

On Wednesday, President Obama gave a speech at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, calling for the United States and Russia to reduce the size of their deployed nuclear arsenals by one-third to around 1,000 strategic warheads. The call for further cuts has been greeted with enthusiasm in many quarters, but these proposed nuclear reductions could potentially be highly damaging to U.S. interests.

In his speech, the president argued that such cuts would be consistent with the goal of maintaining "a strong and credible strategic deterrent," but this argument rests on a contested theory about how nuclear deterrence works. The Obama administration, and many scholars and experts, believe that a secure, second-strike capability is sufficient for deterrence and that anything more is "overkill." Therefore, they believe that nuclear warheads in excess of a "minimum deterrent" threshold can be cut with very little loss to our national security.

However, there are those who argue that maintaining a nuclear advantage over one's opponents enhances deterrence. As Paul Nitze argued during the Cold War, it is of "the utmost importance that the West maintain a sufficient margin of superior capability.... The greater the margin (and the more clearly the Communists understand that we have a margin), the less likely it is that nuclear war will ever occur."

For decades, this debate was largely theoretical -- neither camp marshaled systematic evidence in support of its views -- but, recently, I methodically reviewed the relationship between the size of a country's nuclear arsenal and its ability to achieve its national security objectives. I found strong evidence that, when it comes to nuclear deterrence, more is better.

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 06/19/2013 10:22:38 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
Obama's Wrong: America Does Need Thousands of Nukes.)

That is all that needs to be said.

2 posted on 06/19/2013 10:27:58 PM PDT by svcw (If you are dead when your heart stops, why aren't you alive when it starts.)
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To: nickcarraway

Dumb question - Can our King unilaterally denuke us?


3 posted on 06/19/2013 10:32:44 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: nickcarraway

Back off a notch or two as your enemy stumbles to keep up- but first make damn sure there are really stumbling...

Unilateral disarmament is a fools ploy for peace.

We didn’t work so hard for so long to hand it all away...

FUBO


4 posted on 06/19/2013 10:34:31 PM PDT by One Name (Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor's edge and no man can sit astride it.)
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To: nickcarraway

Communist Goals (1963) Congressional Record—Appendix, pp. A34-A35 January 10, 1963

# 1. U.S. acceptance of coexistence as the only alternative to atomic war.

# 2. U.S. willingness to capitulate in preference to engaging in atomic war.

# 3. Develop the illusion that total disarmament [by] the United States would be a demonstration of moral strength.

http://rense.com/general32/americ.htm

I KNEW we’d get there, folks...#s 1, 2 and 3 in the Communist Goals. Crack out the champagne (but, only if YOU made it yourself, because Capitalism sucks, right Barry?)


5 posted on 06/19/2013 10:36:16 PM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
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To: nickcarraway

Send a couple hundred of them to the middle east and convert it into a glass parkinglot!!!


6 posted on 06/19/2013 10:37:01 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: Cheerio

He can drone and nuke us.


7 posted on 06/19/2013 10:41:33 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway
Jeffrey Allen Jones
8 posted on 06/20/2013 12:10:04 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: nickcarraway

This is all part of Barry’s super flexibility strategy that he told Vlad about last year.


9 posted on 06/20/2013 2:54:51 AM PDT by Artie (We are surrounded by MORONS)
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To: Cheerio

“Dumb question - Can our King unilaterally denuke us?”

Here’s my understanding of how this works. The President has absolute power over the military. If the President orders all military bases worldwide to hand their arms over to (fill-in-blank) and surrender to (fill-in-blank) the soldiers would be required to do so. (Yes, that’s absurd.) So, if the President orders the nuclear arsenal torn down and destroyed by Thursday, it would be done.

People would argue that these orders wouldn’t be followed. Perhaps, perhaps not. But remember the orders won’t be as ludicrous as I’ve posited.

There may be a saving grace called the bureaucratic slow- roll. That’s where everybody says, “Yes, Sir!” and then do nothing. They then run out the clock on whoever is giving them ridiculous orders. (But, I wouldn’t count on it, as Obama has had 5 years to put supporters in place.)


10 posted on 06/20/2013 3:36:21 AM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: Gen.Blather
Zippy has reduced the nuclear arsenal gradually over his presidency. The trend is clear. He will get as close to zeroing-out our nuclear arsenal as he can.

At the same time, he will release as much top secret information as he can.

Three more years to go. Three long years.

11 posted on 06/20/2013 3:51:10 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas ( Isaiah 22:22, Matthew 16:19, Revelation 3:7)
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To: nickcarraway

Very odd notions.

That 1500 nukes somehow means much greater security is just about as odd as the notion that 1000 nukes means a much reduced chance of them being used.


12 posted on 06/20/2013 3:58:04 AM PDT by Sherman Logan
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

“Zippy has reduced the nuclear arsenal gradually over his presidency.”

The Left was very upset that President Reagan substantially reduced the arsenal. Reagan retired, I want to say 20,000 (couldn’t find the exact no, but if memory serves...) nukes. The Left wanted to do the reduction and it annoyed them to give Reagan credit. But what Reagan did was pull out bombs made for bombers which no longer existed. They were huge by today’s standards and were either lower yield or dirty. These bombs were the equivalent of having a blunderbuss resting beside your M-16.

There was a huge reduction in costs associated with getting rid of these things as we no longer needed the security or storage space. Reagan gave money to the Soviets so they could do the same and we watched as each side tore apart and disposed of its obsolete bombs.

Presumably, this left America with a smaller but very capable nuclear deterrent. It had the added benefit of costing less.


13 posted on 06/20/2013 4:02:15 AM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas
The senate ratified the new START Treaty during the lame duck session 2010. That required 67 votes but they got well over 80.

I can't recall the details of exactly how many but that reduced warheads and missiles.

It also had a lot of money to maintain and update the residual arsenal . There is a substantial cost to maintaining these weapons.

14 posted on 06/20/2013 9:04:45 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: Gen.Blather
Many forgot or never knew that Reagan wanted to reduce the nukes.

Reagan used the term SALT 3 to build upon Nixon and Carter but SALT 3 became START and didn't pass until GHW Bush.

Then the New START was ratified in 2010.

15 posted on 06/20/2013 9:08:53 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: Ben Ficklin

Reagan also wanted a Strategic Defense Initiative. To me, that makes all the difference in the world.


16 posted on 06/20/2013 11:59:45 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: nickcarraway

Actually, with Bozo in the WHite Hut we don’t need any nukes. The Commies have won...


17 posted on 06/20/2013 11:05:58 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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