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2016 forecast: Rubio, Bush, Ryan have chance to win over 40% of Latino vote
Latino Decision ^ | 07/07/2013 | by Matt Barreto

Posted on 07/07/2013 7:38:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

While the 2016 presidential election is a full three years away many of the high profile Republican contenders are enmeshed in the immigration reform debate, and if Republicans demonstrate strong leadership on passing comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship possible candidates such as Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan could get strong support from Latino voters. However if Rubio, Bush or Ryan distance themselves from the immigration bill and House Republicans defeat the measure none of the GOP candidates stands to improve on the historic Romney 2012 defeat among Latinos. [Full poll results here]

A new poll from Latino Decisions, on behalf of America’s Voice found Latino presidential voters are paying very close attention to the immigration debates in Washington D.C. and are evaluating the candidates by their words and actions on immigration reform. Half of the respondents were read a prompt about Rubio working to pass immigration reform:

“Currently the U.S. Congress is debating a comprehensive immigration reform bill that would provide a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in the United States. Republican Marco Rubio played a key role in helping to pass this bill and with Rubio’s leadership undocumented immigrants receive legal status and a path to citizenship.”

Respondents were then asked how likely they would be to vote for Rubio in the 2016 presidential election. 54% of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for Rubio, including 50% of Latinos who voted for Obama in 2012, 46% of Latino Independents, and 55% of Latino voters age 18-34. However, absent any prompting about Rubio working to ensure a final bill is passed, he failed to even reach the 30% support mark among Latinos.

rubio2016

Likewise, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush stands to gain if he leans in on the immigration debate and convinces fellow Republicans to pass the bill with a path to citizenship. When respondents were read a prompt about Bush’s support for the immigration bill with a path to citizenship 47% of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for Bush in 2016, including 42% of those who just cast a ballot for Obama in 2012.

bush2016

Finally, we asked Latino voters how they would evaluate former Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan as a presidential contender in 2016. In recent weeks, Ryan has become an outspoken support of immigration reform efforts, and could emerge as a critical actor in getting a bill out of the House. We asked what effect it would have on Latino 2016 presidential voting, if Paul Ryan were to play a key role in getting immigration reform with a path to citizenship to pass the House. Overall, 44% of Latino voters say they would be likely to vote for Ryan in 2016, including 47% of Independents and 40% of Latino Obama voters. Even Ryan, who was part of the 2012 self-deport ticket, has an opportunity to rebuild his image and standing among Latinos by support immigration reform.

ryan2016

 

How much support do the GOP contenders need?

In 2012 Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 4.96 million votes, and according to Latino Decisions analysis of the election returns and Latino voting data, Latinos provided Obama with a 5.8 million vote margin. If the Republicans could have won 40% of the Latino vote in 2012 that would have erased 3.6 million net votes – or 72% of the 4.96 million they lost by. Republican don’t need to win the Latino vote outright, they just need to stop losing it so badly. Although Latinos are not the only demographic that Republicans need to improve their showing with, they represent the single largest bloc of voters who are movable. An estimated 11.2 million Latinos cast a ballot in 2012 according to the Census, and more than 12.5 million are likely to cast a vote in 2016, further increasing the share of all voters who are Latino, nationally and in key states. In 2004, George W. Bush won around 40% of the Latino vote and was able to carry states with large and growing Latino electorates like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia — all states that Obama won in 2008 and again in 2012. The polling data today suggests Rubio most of all, but Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan as well, can equal or eclipse the 40% mark among Latinos if they provide leadership on immigration reform to get a bill signed into law. However they remain far from the 40% mark right now.

The 2016 election if Immigration Reform does not pass

As we have pointed out in polling data before, Republicans will not get any credit for getting a bill through half of the Congress. Latino voters expect to see the GOP successfully move immigration reform and send a true compromise bill to the President. When asked who they would support if the 2016 presidential election were today, no more than 28% supported Rubio, no more than 25% supported Ryan, and no more than 30% supported Bush. On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is the runaway favorite among Latinos, and would take anywhere from 66% to 74% of the Latino vote if the election were today. Vice President Joe Biden does not fare as well as Clinton though he still commands 30 to 40 point leads over Republican rivals. Thus, Republicans need some momentum with Latino voters and Latino voters seem to say that passing a comprehensive immigration reform bill is the way forward.

Latino Vote in 2016 (as of July 1, 2013)

2016vote

 

About the poll: Latino Decisions interviewed 1,200 Latino presidential voters from June 20-29, 2013. All respondents were Latinos who had voted in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Respondents were interviewed by landline, cell phone, and online, in either English (61%) or Spanish (39%) at the discretion of the respondent. The poll carries an overall margin of error of +/- 2.8% on the full sample, and a margin of error of +/- 4.0% on split samples of n=600. Full toplines of the entire poll are posted here.

 



TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016gopprimary; amnesty; bush; destroyus; latino; latinovote; nwo; rubio; ryan
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1 posted on 07/07/2013 7:38:56 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Spare me.

Yes, legal Latinos want job competition from millions of amnestied illegals.


2 posted on 07/07/2013 7:41:03 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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To: SeekAndFind

wha a joke


3 posted on 07/07/2013 7:42:30 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: SeekAndFind
Any of the three would đrive the country further into the Hole. Jeb is the Republican Designated Nominee. Speculation on anyone else is futile.
4 posted on 07/07/2013 7:42:38 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE http://steshaw.org/econohttp://www.fee.org/library/det)
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To: SeekAndFind
A study about Rubio appeared a few days ago - he would receive 1% more of the Hispanic vote than Romeny got.

Democrats are the party of white liberal elites and poor blacks and hispanics who prop them up.

We need to STOP wasting our time going after black and Hispanic votes... and shore up our base.

5 posted on 07/07/2013 7:43:14 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

And lose 80% of their base.


6 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:11 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: SeekAndFind

7 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:23 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Praise to the Lord the Almighty the King of Creation)
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To: SeekAndFind

And lose 65% of the Conservative vote.


8 posted on 07/07/2013 7:44:42 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: GOPJ
We need to STOP wasting our time going after black and Hispanic votes... and shore up our base.

We need to stop pandering to demographic groups, stand squarely for conservatism...thus, retaining our base and attracting a few more points from every demographic that is responsive to a conservative message.

The GOP doesn't need to "win" the Hispanic vote...or the black vote...they just need to increase their percentage from 30 to 33% and from 8 to 10%, respectively, to win the general election.

9 posted on 07/07/2013 7:50:19 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: okie01

Lucy would you hold the football for me?


10 posted on 07/07/2013 7:53:50 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: SeekAndFind

Propaganda. It will never happen..


11 posted on 07/07/2013 7:54:23 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Skip impeachment and move straight to deportation..)
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To: SeekAndFind
One suspects that the Democrat thumb was measurably on the scale for this alleged "poll".

Mister Rubio (and his RINO comrades) will be jobless after the 2016 primary. That is the "poll" I'm waiting for.

.

12 posted on 07/07/2013 7:58:50 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never...except to convictions of honour and good sense. W. Churchill)
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To: headstamp 2
Spare me. Yes, legal Latinos want job competition from millions of amnestied illegals.

Good point. Lots of established legal Latinos lived here with respect and acceptance from all of us... then liberal elites wanted a cheap servant class to keep farm prices down and gardeners and nannies to take care of them... Dreadful.

13 posted on 07/07/2013 8:00:12 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

LOL!

What a joke. What a fraud. Who did this spin job? This rope-a-dope? Soros? LaRaza?

Kick the illegals out of the country and seal the border.


14 posted on 07/07/2013 8:03:05 PM PDT by isthisnickcool (NO MORE IRS!)
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To: SeekAndFind

No!

GOP establishment we did it your way, the last two times around the track.

Now we do things our way.


15 posted on 07/07/2013 8:05:12 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: SeekAndFind

If we don’t give amnesty to 20+ million illegals and allow tens of millions of their relatives to come in thru chain migration, we are dead as a party. /s


16 posted on 07/07/2013 8:07:04 PM PDT by umgud (2A can't survive dem majorities)
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To: headstamp 2

I second that “spare me”. Other polls show that Latinos won’t vote for Republicans even if this fiasco does pass. We’ve heard this same line for decades re the black vote, and they always turn out for the ‘rats. The only way the GOP might peel a few votes off, is by promising even more gibmes than the ‘rats already do, and that wouldn’t be easy, though they could kill what remains of the conservative base by raising their taxes even more to pay for the bribes.


17 posted on 07/07/2013 8:10:28 PM PDT by mrsmel (One Who Can See)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rubio could get 100% of the “Latino” vote in a Spanish speaking country.

Maybe he should move there. That’s obviously the people he cares about.


18 posted on 07/07/2013 8:10:34 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: okie01
We need to stop pandering to demographic groups, stand squarely for conservatism...thus, retaining our base and attracting a few more points from every demographic that is responsive to a conservative message.

I agree.

19 posted on 07/07/2013 8:13:26 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

That vote won’t make up for the lost conservative vote!!!

I for one won’t vote for those jerks!


20 posted on 07/07/2013 8:13:41 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: SeekAndFind
Rubio, Bush, Ryan have chance to win over 40% of Latino vote

Can that offset the loss of conservative voters who stay home?

21 posted on 07/07/2013 8:16:15 PM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: Fiji Hill

If conservatives stay home again, we get another 4 years of Democrats and a permanent majority of liberals for the Supreme Court.


22 posted on 07/07/2013 8:17:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Seaplaner
One suspects that the Democrat thumb was measurably on the scale for this alleged "poll".

I read a poll yesterday - said DEMOCRATS could pull in possibly 40% of the 'right-to-life' and evangelical Christian vote if they spent more time and money trying to get that vote...

Also that democrats could easily get 50% of the white middle-class NRA vote if they'd relaxed their position on the Second Amendment...

23 posted on 07/07/2013 8:18:03 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind
 photo bullshit.jpg
24 posted on 07/07/2013 8:22:19 PM PDT by 2111USMC (Aim Small Miss Small)
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To: SeekAndFind
An estimated 11.2 million Latinos cast a ballot in 2012 according to the Census

Bollocks. Not even close. According to census website Table 2(pdf) it was 8.4%
25 posted on 07/07/2013 8:27:37 PM PDT by caveat emptor (!)
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To: SeekAndFind

If Rubio/Ryan/Bush win, America loses.


26 posted on 07/07/2013 8:27:57 PM PDT by exist
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To: SeekAndFind
If conservatives stay home again, we get another 4 years of Democrats and a permanent majority of liberals for the Supreme Court.

Democrats run the most liberal guy they can fine - then they turn to the Republicans and in soft sweet tones say, "here's some advice - run a moderate so you don't offend people'.

And our stupid GOP leaders believe them.

Well, it won't just be 'some of us' staying home if the GOP runs a 'moderate' again, it'll be millions of us...

And NO I don't care - because if we do 'the stupid' again we'll get another liberal anyhow. Might as well stay home and let them have it. And they can take our House and Senate Republicans with them.

If Gays or Blacks had the IRS targeting them for two years, dems would have stepped in to defend them. When the IRS targeted conservatives our elected blowhards didn't do squat.

That's what we owe them. Not squat. Nothing.

27 posted on 07/07/2013 8:28:42 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

Of course...what they do not tell you...is if any of the Amnesty Liberals lose 2% more of the conservative voting base by supporting Illegal Alien Amnesty...they will still lose elections with 40% of Hispanic vote

This Hispanic Voter Myth is total BS.


28 posted on 07/07/2013 8:29:05 PM PDT by SeminoleCounty (Don't Blame Me For La Raza Rubio....I Voted For Alex Snitker)
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To: SeekAndFind; Liz
If conservatives stay home again, we get another 4 years of Democrats and a permanent majority of liberals for the Supreme Court.

Democrats run the most liberal guy they can find - then they turn to the Republicans and in soft sweet tones say, "here's some advice - run a moderate so you don't offend people'.

And our stupid GOP leaders believe them.

Well, it won't just be 'some of us' staying home if the GOP runs a 'moderate' again, it'll be millions of us...

And NO I don't care - because if we do 'the stupid' again we'll get another liberal anyhow. Might as well stay home and let them have it. And they can take our House and Senate Republicans with them.

If Gays or Blacks had the IRS targeting them for two years, dems would have stepped in to defend them. When the IRS targeted conservatives our elected blowhards didn't do squat.

That's what we owe them. Not squat. Nothing.

29 posted on 07/07/2013 8:29:57 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: SeekAndFind

Republican primaries are always decided by latino voters.


30 posted on 07/07/2013 8:29:57 PM PDT by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: morphing libertarian
Lucy would you hold the football for me?

So, in your view, it is hopeless? Conservatism is done for? Dead? Finis?

31 posted on 07/07/2013 8:30:15 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hogwash propaganda


32 posted on 07/07/2013 8:33:18 PM PDT by Moorings
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To: SeekAndFind

Only in anglaise do fat, slim, and none mean the same thing.


33 posted on 07/07/2013 8:34:23 PM PDT by printhead (Standard & Poor - Poor is the new standard.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Oh! Look! Pie charts!

This MUST be true!

34 posted on 07/07/2013 8:36:13 PM PDT by Washi (PUSH BACK! Encourage your legislators to introduce pro-second amendment legislation.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh puhleeze. Never ... gonna ... happen.


35 posted on 07/07/2013 8:37:07 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: SeekAndFind

Third party time. At least it will give me the satisfaction of seeing Rubio, Ryan, etc. thrown out of office for good!


36 posted on 07/07/2013 8:37:42 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: okie01

In my view if you think the GOP will represent us, you’re hopeless.

It’s time to make them the third party.

I don’t have the energy to organize, but I have some money to put into it.


37 posted on 07/07/2013 8:41:22 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: SeekAndFind
GOD, HASN'T THE INESTIMABLE, prescient ANNIE COULTER DEBUNKED THIS BULLS##T SO MANY TIMES ONLY A TARD COULD WRITE THIS STUFF WITH A STRAIGHT FACE?

(HELL IN HER LAST COLUMN WHICH YOU FELLOW FREEPERS SHOULD READ EVERY SINGLE WEEK IT COMES OUT) ..PRINCESS ANN REPORTS...

'We keep hearing insistent claims that if Republicans don't pass amnesty yesterday it will be the end of the party. Can I see the math on that? I can see why bringing in 30 million new Democratic voters would be good for the Democrats, but how does it help Republicans? Maybe conservatives shouldn't blindly trust the calculations of the guy who graduated fifth from the bottom of his class at the U.S. Naval Academy. If I were a Democrat, I would have tried to sneak this bill past Republicans by proposing amnesty only after reaching some easily rigged benchmarks. But, apparently, Chuck Schumer knows elected Republicans better than I do. Step One: Everyone's amnestied. Step Two: After they're amnestied, they can bring in all their relatives. If Hispanics voted 50.1 percent for Democrats, amnesty would be a bad deal for Republicans. But, in fact, they vote 70 percent to 80 percent for Democrats. How did it become an urgent priority for Republicans to bring in 30 million new voters, 80 percent of whom will vote Democratic? Democrats want 30 million new voters and they will say anything to get there: -- It's a crisis! Illegal immigrants are "living in the shadows"! That's not a "crisis." At most -- and this is highly dubious -- it's a crisis for the illegal immigrants. But evidently, "living in the shadows" is at least better than living in Guadalajara. Otherwise, there's an easy solution. We're told, "You don't know what it's like to live in the shadows!" Yes, you're right, and that proves it's not a crisis. Sorry to sound legalistic, illegal aliens, but you broke the law and -- look me in the eye -- you know you broke the law. You hid in the backs of trucks, traveled across remote desert locations, ran from U.S. agents and stole American IDs. It's supposed to be uncomfortable to break the law. We aren't required to grant amnesty to people just because they've put themselves in the awkward position of being here illegally. (Or because the Democrats need 30 million new voters.)


38 posted on 07/07/2013 8:41:53 PM PDT by jimsin
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To: All

40 Percent LMAO.

And if we agree to more free stuff...we can get another 40 percent.

Of course we will be Democrats...but hey, we can win.

This article is a fermented soup bowl of excrement.


39 posted on 07/07/2013 8:43:08 PM PDT by rbmillerjr (We have No Opposition to Obam a's Socialist Agenda:)
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To: SeekAndFind

What makes you think that Rubio, Ryan or Bush will appoint conservatives to the Supreme Court? Warren, Brennan, Blackmun, Souter and Roberts were appointed by Republicans.


40 posted on 07/07/2013 8:44:07 PM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: jimsin; sickoflibs; Liz; SandRat
Step One: Everyone's amnestied.

Step Two: After they're amnestied, they can bring in all their relatives.

If Hispanics voted 50.1 percent for Democrats, amnesty would be a bad deal for Republicans. But, in fact, they vote 70 percent to 80 percent for Democrats.

How did it become an urgent priority for Republicans to bring in 30 million new voters, 80 percent of whom will vote Democratic? Democrats want 30 million new voters and they will say anything to get there: --

It's a crisis! Illegal immigrants are "living in the shadows"!

That's not a "crisis." At most -- and this is highly dubious -- it's a crisis for the illegal immigrants. But evidently, "living in the shadows" is at least better than living in Guadalajara. Otherwise, there's an easy solution. - Ann Coulter...

Immigration reform? Gimme a break....

41 posted on 07/07/2013 8:49:01 PM PDT by GOPJ (In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is a dangerous extremist.. Greenfield)
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To: morphing libertarian
In my view if you think the GOP will represent us, you’re hopeless.

It’s time to make them the third party.

Which spells doom.

There might be a better way. The problem, as I see it, is contained totally within the national party -- the so-called GOPe. I.e., Washington.

The state parties, on the other hand, remain suitably conservative...and effective! We're not losing state elections, we're winning them. It's the national party that is the problem.

Is it not time for several key state parties (Texas, for one) to declare their independence from the national party?

42 posted on 07/07/2013 8:51:30 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: Fiji Hill

RE: What makes you think that Rubio, Ryan or Bush will appoint conservatives to the Supreme Court?

Gut feeling that’s all. I cannot speak about Jeb Bush, but other than the issue of immigration, Rubio and Ryan ON MOST OTHER ISSUES are quite conservative.

Alito was nominated by Bush Jr. ( albeit after the brouhaha over his initial nomination of Harriet Miers ).

Clarence Thomas was nominated by Bush Sr.

And of course, Scalia was nominated by Mr. Amnesty -— Ronald Reagan himself.


43 posted on 07/07/2013 8:52:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The poll is skewed Democrat relative to the 2012 Exit Poll. It also shows approval ratings in the high 70s for Obama and Hillary. Our potential for support from this group isn’t high, but is maybe a bit higher than this poll indicates.

The small number of Latino votes we get is not going to change much by the Republicans mimicking Democrats. The small number will increase over time, in the normal course of this immigrant group assimilating into the US and climbing up the socio-economic ladder.

By sticking to our principles, we will eventually get a good percentage of these votes. Well, unless the Democrats succeed with these people the way they have succeeded with blacks, in putting them into permanent welfare dependency.

In the meanwhile, we need to appeal to whites, to get them to vote in the same percentage as blacks, and to get a few more percents of all demographic groups. Not by changing our message, but by taking our message to more people.


44 posted on 07/07/2013 8:58:54 PM PDT by Redmen4ever
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To: SeekAndFind

Yuk. Ugh. Bleh. Etc;


45 posted on 07/07/2013 8:59:48 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Both parties are trying to elect a new PEOPLE.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Looks like TRAIL BALLOON BULL$HIT to me.


46 posted on 07/07/2013 9:19:43 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: GeronL
what a joke

Very TRUE.

It is TIME for a THIRD PARTY no matter what anybody says.

47 posted on 07/07/2013 9:21:29 PM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: SeekAndFind

Another blatantly obvious push for amnesty. These people are traitors and someday I hope they are held properly accountable.


48 posted on 07/07/2013 9:48:41 PM PDT by Pox (Good Night. I expect more respect tomorrow.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Rubio, Bush, Ryan have chance to win over 40% of Latino Republocrat vote

There, I fixed it.

The three RINOS -- Rubio, Bush, and Ryan -- don't have support of conservative "Latinos" People of Hispanic background who vote Republican are Conservatives. People who vote based on their membership in some ethnic group vote Demonrat. They don't mix.

49 posted on 07/07/2013 10:27:43 PM PDT by womanvet (Amnesty for aliens? Do the Roswell critters get to vote?)
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To: SeekAndFind
Spite their nose for the sake of Illegal Amnesty.

What they are doing only helps the Democrats, Ask yourself Why they would do this!

50 posted on 07/07/2013 10:34:18 PM PDT by MaxMax (If you're not pissed off, you're not paying attention)
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