1. Landrieu has won her three previous Senate races with 52% of the vote each time.
2. Louisiana has the highest percentage of black voters of any state in the union.
They overwhelmingly vote Democrat, especially when Obama was atop the ticket.
Unlike other red state at-risk Democrats, Landrieu has not run away from Obama, indeed, she has openly embraced him and his policies..stressed her support, her vote for Obamacare. She believes that if she gets 95% of the black vote, plus the remaining elements of the Democrat coalition of the pro-choice, environmental, teachers, unions, she can eke out another win. And she has name recognition.
She will have NO trouble raising funds...and the DSC will give her all the support and $$ she asks for.
The question then becomes is has LA become more conservative..have more whites defected from the Democrat party..to beat her..or, does her victory formula let her pull out another win?
If the latter, then maybe running Guillory IS the way to take her out. He'll hold the GOP vote, and if he can peel off 10-15% of the black vote..he wins..
Besides, I'm not sure if any of the GOP congressional delegation will give up a safe seat to take her on..
LA is 32.4% black, which is 5% below the black percentage in MS. In an 2014 election year in which the only races are the U.S. Senate race and six U.S. House races (five in safely Republican districts and one in a safely Democrat, black-majority district), I doubt that blacks will constitute more than 30% of the electorate. If Landrieu gets 95% of the black vote, she would need over 32% of the white vote in order to get 50%; Obama got maybe 15% of the white vote in LA in 2012. So it’s an uphill battle for Landrieu.
Congressman Cassidy is running for the Senate; if Guillory or Landry jump in then it will likely result in a December runoff (which is how Landrieu beat Terrell in 2002). So I hope that Guillory runs for Lt. Gov., and that either Kandry or Cassidy forgo the Senate race.