This story assumes that Guillory won’t run for Congress to concentrate on a Lt. Gov. run in 2015: http://thehayride.com/2013/08/rodney-alexander-calls-it-quits-wont-run-in-2014/
Pundits all seem to be repeating that Guillory doesn’t have a “base” in the LA-05. But the CD is 33% black, and the special election will be a jungle primary with a top-two runoff if no one gets 50%+1, so I could see Guillory finishing second in the first round and beating Riser in the runoff by getting almost all of the black vote and 35%-40% of the white vote.
Ain’t happening. Marcus Hunter (Louisiana House 17, D, Monroe) has announced. That will peel off most of the black vote and prevent any “moderate” white Democrat from challenging Riser. Additionally, the election is already set for 10/19, with qualifying 8/14-8/16 (next week).
Riser is the only person able to hit the ground running.
Representative Marcus L. Hunter
Democrat District 17 - See more at: http://house.louisiana.gov/h_reps/members.asp?ID=17#sthash.l69AtvMi.dpuf