It looks like Oswald indeed fired the shots, and I’m fine with that. I think where we get into the gray zone is how & why Oswald was so connected to American intelligence, and for what reasons ? What was a CIA agent doing standing right behind Oswald in line when he was getting his bus ticket to Mexico City ?
The whole Mexico City episode is full of red flags. When he defected to Russia, Oswald wasn’t shooting in the dark. He knew exactly who to go to get a passport, and everything went like clockwork.
In Mexico City, he does pretty much the opposite. Nobody knows he is coming, he has no bona fides, and he gets nowhere. Oswald would have known, from previous experience, what he needed to do to get the passport, but he did not do it.
So I don’t think he went there to get a passport at all. I think he went there to get documented by the operatives monitoring the embassies, to establish the story that he was in contact with the Soviets. That mission he did accomplish.
Heck, we don’t even know with any certainty if Oswald visited the embassies in Mexico City, like we have been told. The only photo evidence we have is obviously not him, and we have the FBI director on record telling the President it was not Oswald on the recording surveillance tapes too. Lots of funny business with the CIA operation monitoring those embassies and what information they provided to the FBI about Oswald too.