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I do not think anyone in the world believes that we would not win a conventional confrontation with any other power in the world. We could beat Russia, China, and anyone else for that matter.

That is really not the issue.

The issue is about how much pain we can tolerate. Say we fire 100 cruise missiles and a dozen make it in. Then what? Do we send in B1’s and B2’s? Do we send in the carrier based planes? And how many of those can we afford to lose. While we can defeat most ground to air systems, we are not “perfect.”

If we fire from the ships, what are the chances of retaliation from the Syrian or Russian Navies? A full scale attack on our ships (massive missile launches at once) could overwhelm our defenses. What if we lose a destroyer. Not the fleet. But if one missile hits a destroyer, what happens.

Again, such an attack would result in the devastation of the Syrian navy. And their air force will have already been destroyed.

What we forget is the Arab mindset. The arab mindset is not about winning wars. It is about taking on the big enemies. All they need to do is give us a bloody nose (a la Beruit.) We get a bloody nose and we retreat—no question about it.

It is pretty clear that American people are not hungry for another attempt at occupying a middle eastern country. That would be suicide based on the lack of political will we have for fighting that kind of a war.

And finally, the big question is this:

With our intervention, if successful, Assad will be finished. He knows this. We know this. And his generals know this. My question is at what point does he get taken out by his own military? And, if the military knows the rebels will kill them after a coup, then does it make sense to go down trying a massive, all out attack on Israel?

I don’t think the Generals would allow that to happen, knowing it would mean the end of Syria’s existence as a state. It would also mean a greater attack from Iran.

What no one is talking about is an attack by Syria in the other direction. Anyone with half a brain knows that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are behind this whole thing. What are the chanced that Syria and Iran respond with a massive attack on them. They do not have the “iron dome” that Israel has. Our Patriots are not going to stop a massive fusillade of missiles. That could knock out oil production in the Gulf for years.

This is the scenario that believe is the outcome. Russia wins (they become the largest oil exporter, AND the gas line through Syria becomes moot.) Syria wins because Assad stays in power (a little longer). And we are caught looking in the other directions.

And, from a personal point of view, the House of Saud gets their asses handed to them. And that always makes me happy.