Posted on 09/09/2013 6:42:25 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Originally, I planned to include this in the post about the CNN poll, but it deserves a stand-alone post for its insight into the assumptions of the White House strategic plan to deal with Syria. Ben Rhodes, the deputy national-security adviser to Barack Obama and a public face on the push for military strikes against Bashar al-Assad,tells CNN this morning that military strikes on Assad wont lead to any retaliation at all, because its not in Assads interest to answer back for an act of war:
Ben Rhodes, White House Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communication & Speechwriting, appeared on New Day to talk to Anchor Chris Cuomo about the administrations case for military action in light of new CNN/ORC poll that shows a majority of Americans are against military action whether or not Congress approves the resolution. Rhodes also confirmed that there is no doubt that Assad is responsible for the use of chemical weapons, and said that the President of Syria has no interest to retaliate, as the United States is prepared for any contingency.
Its simply not in anybodys interest to invite further strikes from the United States by doing anything, Rhodes said. Were going to make it very clear; were prepared for any contingency. Our military can handle whatever comes at us. But the fact of the matter is, we dont think its in the interest of Assad or any of his allies in the region to test the resolve of the United States by doing something after we take this strike.
Of course, thats what the White House hopes, and its the central conceit behind John Kerrys repeated exhortations that the US isnt declaring war on Syria. Its not that bombing a country that hasnt attacked us or threatened our interests isnt an act of war, which of course it is. Its that the Obama administration is just betting that Assad takes his lumps rather than risk a bigger American intervention.
That is a very large assumption, however, and Rhodes own argument undermines it. Syria has a close relationship with Hezbollah, a terrorist network that is certainly capable of attacking American interests in the region without getting Assads hands too dirty, and with Iran, which is building nuclear weapons for just such a fight. Iran has already been caught planning a retaliation against our embassy in Baghdad, and thats hardly the only target they can reach.
Furthermore, Assad seems to have regained the momentum in the civil war, or at least blunted that of the rebels, who have grown more divided and disorganized by all accounts. The biggest threat to Assads survival at the moment is Western intervention, which removes any deterrence from retaliating after military strikes that are strong enough to damage his ability to control the country. Here again, the lesson of Libya comes into play as a cautionary tale for dictators that dont respond to outside attack. Assad has no intention of meeting the same fate as Moammar Qaddafi, even if the US seems to want the same end result a failed state. At that point, its very much in Assads interest to widen the war so as to bring Russia and perhaps China into the conflict, and probably Israel and Iran, too, which a larger American intervention would almost certainly do.
The White House might win this bet, but its much more of a gamble than Rhodes, Kerry, and the Obama administration are admitting. And clearly, its a gamble on which most Americans dont want to double down.
He is very much aware they can shoot back, sabotage, suicide bomb and take over grade schools full of children.
That's why he fast-tracked them here...
Channeling Trayvon?
Video: Assad promises everything in response to attack
fyi
If this doesn’t work Kerry says he’ll throw his Sec. of State commission over the White House fence.
Video is Interview of NSC Adviser Ben Rhoades (sp?)....
Nothing is ever Forgotten on this Forum!
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