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Where are the Jobs? Who Has Them? Who's Likely to Get Them?
Townhall.com ^ | September 14, 2013 | Mike Shedlock

Posted on 09/14/2013 4:20:43 AM PDT by Kaslin

Inquiring minds who notice the alleged drop in the unemployment are asking "Where the hell are the jobs?"

It's a good question. And I have details, by demographic age group, from reader Tim Wallace.

click on any chart for sharper image 

Change in Number of Jobs Since 2007



Civilian Non-Institutional Population by Age Group



Work Force by Age Group



Number Employed by Age Group



Percent of Population Group in Work Force



Percentage in Age Group Employed



Tim Wallace writes ... 

 Hello Mish

In the 16-19 age group, the population has shrunk by 239,000, while the number of jobs in this age group has shrunk by 1,415,000! 

In the 20-24 age group, the population has grown by 1,625,000 while the number of jobs has shrunk by 362,000. So, for the under 25 age group we have 1,777,000 less jobs with 1,386,000 more people.

In the 25 to 54 age group that everyone focuses on, we see a loss in population of 1,382,000 people since August of 2007, but an even greater loss in jobs - 5,940,000!

Since we know that the population has grown by over 13,000,000 since 2007 yet we have 1.8 million less jobs since then, what does this tell us? 

Jobs were lost in every age bracket but the 55+ group, with 16-19 dropping 22.6%, 20-24 falling 2.6%, 25-54 going down 5.9% and 55+ going up 22.7%.

The second graph shows the Civilian Non-institutional Population by age - note the basic flat lines on all but 55+. The graph shows the Work Force by age - note once again only 55+ goes up.

The fourth graph shows the number employed by age group. Note that it's only the 55+ age group that has done anything in the current "Recovery". The other groups are all down from 2007, with 16-19 devastated. Just go in Walmart and McDonald's and you will see it first hand - senior citizen workers abound.

The fifth graph shows the percentage of an age group that is also in the work force. Note the plunges in every age group except 55+. 

The last graph shows the percentage of the age group employed. It follows the exact trend of the fifth, as it must.

So, if you are in sales and marketing you should be focusing your products on the 55+ age group, they are the ones earning the cash. Forget the teenagers, they are contributing little, and their parents are sliding fast! The millennials aged 20-24 hope those 55+ will retire but the trends do not look promising.

As typical with my charts, data is not adjusted for seasonality. Instead, I compare the same month every year to prior years. 

Tim
Structural Demographics Poor

Flashback May 22, 2008: In Demographics Of Jobless Claims I wrote ... 
 Structural demographic effects imply that prospects in the full-time labor market will be poor for those over age 50-55 and workers under age 30. 

Teen and college-age employment could suffer a great deal from (1) a dramatic slowdown in discretionary spending and (2) part-time Boomer reentrants into the low-paying service sector; workers who will be competing with younger workers.

Ironically, older part-time workers remaining in or reentering the labor force will be cheaper to hire in many cases than younger workers. The reason is Boomers 65 and older will be covered by Medicare (as long as it lasts) and will not require as many benefits as will younger workers, especially those with families. 

In effect, Boomers will be competing with their children and grandchildren for jobs that in many cases do not pay living wages.
So, where are the jobs?

They went exactly where I said they would: Boomers now compete with their children and grandchildren for jobs that do not pay living wages.

I certainly did not envision the "Obamacare effect" in 2008, but the trend was already set in stone due to rising health-care costs and the age 65 kick-in of Medicare.

Obamacare enhanced the trend I had already expected.

Who is to Blame?

Don't blame corporations or minimum wage laws. Blame the Fed, central bankers, fractional reserve lending, and Congressional silliness including Obamacare.

For further discussion, please see ...

Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions

Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else)

Near-Record 20% of Americans Struggle to Afford Food and Basic Necessities; Who's to Blame?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS:
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1 posted on 09/14/2013 4:20:43 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

I’ll sum it up. Since Obama has taken office there are more people and a whole lot less jobs yet the numbnut left still worships him. His economic policies have been a complete disaster.


2 posted on 09/14/2013 4:37:35 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: jsanders2001

Not just his economic policies. Everything is a disaster since that arrogant pos took office


3 posted on 09/14/2013 4:39:42 AM PDT by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: Kaslin

The jobs are in Texas, or North Dakota, and are all in spite of Obama’s policy and the left. And fracking has saved our economic future if we are allowed to save it.


4 posted on 09/14/2013 4:54:05 AM PDT by King_Corey (www.kingcorey.com -- OpenCarry.org -- http://defcad.org/)
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To: Kaslin
"Where the hell are the jobs?"

Bathhouse Barry is just continuing the Globalist Agenda of American de-industrialization that has been going on for a long time.

5 posted on 09/14/2013 4:55:30 AM PDT by Count of Monte Fisto (The foundation of modern society is the denial of reality.)
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To: Kaslin

Anyone unemployed needs to move to North Dakota if they are serious about needing a job. Subway starts out at 16 dollars a hour. They have 3percent unemployment. Huge opportunities there.


6 posted on 09/14/2013 5:06:48 AM PDT by napscoordinator ( Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the Country!)
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To: Kaslin

Boomers and seniors in “living wage jobs” who might be retired today if not for the economic downturn are still working. Those positions are not opening up for younger adults.

This may change as those older workers are eligible for SS and Medicare. But with all the downsizing and the cost of Obamacare on businesses, those jobs may be just phased out altogether.

Those unemployed young adults still love Obama and blame greedy Republicans for their plight.


7 posted on 09/14/2013 5:20:19 AM PDT by randita
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To: Kaslin

Dallas
http://www.indeed.com/jobs?l=76004&rq=1&fromage=last

Fort Worth
http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=&l=76134

Des Moines
http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=&l=50309


8 posted on 09/14/2013 5:26:20 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (I aim to raise a million plus for Gov. Palin. What'll you do?.)
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To: randita

Normally, it is more desirable to have a fresh, young perky face providing service, but methinks those are harder to find. In many cases, the 55+ may be better looking since too many younger people are overweight or festooned with tatoos and piercings—or insist on being Goth. Then there is their command of the English language, which is often poor or punctuated with obscenities.

Lastly, employers know they will get a better days work out of the 55+ crowd than the 16-35 crowd. As old and run down as they may appear, at least they show up on time and have a work ethic.


9 posted on 09/14/2013 5:46:52 AM PDT by rbg81
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To: Kaslin

Thank you - this lays out well what is actually going on out there.

I thank God (and their hard work!) that my 20 something daughters are beating the odds, so it can be done: Oldest (26) is married, has one 4 month old, and is employed as an emergency room nurse; 2nd oldest (just turned 24 in July) just accepted a position at a well known mid town Manhattan law firm as an entry level associate attorney (firm was founded in 1916). She just took the bar over the summer and graduated from a 23rd ranked law school, in top 10%,was on law review and published. This is an extremely tough job market, as most know, and our family had no previous connections for her to network. The 21 year old daughter is a senior at Pace in Manhattan going for her acting BFA and is earning all of her own living expenses with a DJ job, has a modeling agent and gets an occasional modeling gig from it, and a part time modeling type position at Abercrombie & Fitch.

Just saying that it can be done but the work is hard to come by for young adults in these age groups; all of this has been very hard to accomplish.


10 posted on 09/14/2013 7:10:34 AM PDT by stonehouse01 (Equal rights for unborn women)
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To: Count of Monte Fisto

I agree 100%.

America has for far too long, ignored American jobs.

We have sent American jobs overseas for an entire generation. Both parties, and non-stop.

One generation ago, America was on top of the world.

Now we have a strong new challenger. Communist. Government run, with no real foreign ownership (yes pay attention, no real foreign ownership)

China.

We have sent far too much American business, to China (where China owns them)

Stop it.

Bring back American jobs now.


11 posted on 09/14/2013 7:16:53 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

You want to bring back unionized manual labor jobs performed by brain dead Democrats? Yikes.


12 posted on 09/14/2013 8:07:06 AM PDT by Henry Hnyellar
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To: Henry Hnyellar

I want to bring back American jobs.

Period.

AMERICAN JOBS.


13 posted on 09/14/2013 8:08:08 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

American jobs.

Absolutely!

There are no tax incentives to keep the jobs here. Plus Obamacare is going to be responsible for the loss of a lot more jobs.

The middle class is being destroyed.


14 posted on 09/14/2013 8:41:32 AM PDT by FR_addict
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To: randita

“This may change as those older workers are eligible for SS and Medicare.”

As long as we have inflation (unreported but very real) don’t expect many people to rely on Social Security for their retirement. In fact, don’t expect many people to be retiring at all; I work with many who can’t.


15 posted on 09/14/2013 12:11:12 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: rbg81

“Lastly, employers know they will get a better days work out of the 55+ crowd than the 16-35 crowd. As old and run down as they may appear, at least they show up on time and have a work ethic.”

Absolutely; I’ve hired many of the 50+ crowd, and they are much better workers. Too many younger workers have less basic skills (including English - even the American ones) and really don’t want to work (and I say this as one much closer in age to them than the 55+ crowd).


16 posted on 09/14/2013 12:17:40 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: FR_addict

“The middle class is being destroyed.”

This has been going on for decades; the only differences in the past 10 years are the pace of the jobs exodus and the realization that NO JOB IS SAFE. The latter is the most disconcerting, especially for people who invested a lot of time and money in their education/training.

Obama is just the worst possible solution (though the Repubs had no answers either, which is how Obama got elected).


17 posted on 09/14/2013 12:21:15 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Kaslin
I heard a caller on Hannity's radio show on Friday say that we needed Obamacare because the people can't afford their health care anymore because the jobs aren't there for them to earn a living.

So the liberal approach is to first wreck something with their policies, then instead of fixing what they wrecked they need to prop up the people impacted by the wreck by wrecking the next thing, and so on and on.

So the solution is not to fix the job problem that is causing people to not have the incomes to pay for medical costs. The solution is to revamp the medical industry to change how medical costs are paid for in an era of reduced jobs.

What will be next?

-PJ

18 posted on 09/14/2013 12:24:30 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: Kaslin

Why should people work when they can make more money on welfare? If they do want a job, are they qualified for anything? Do they have strange haircolor, stupid clothes with pants bagging to their knees or a bad attitude? Face pierced up and visible tattoos?


19 posted on 09/14/2013 4:45:21 PM PDT by tuffydoodle (Shut up voices, or I'll poke you with a Q-Tip again.)
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To: rbg81

Lastly, employers know they will get a better days work out of the 55+ crowd than the 16-35 crowd. As old and run down as they may appear, at least they show up on time and have a work ethic.

______________________

My 18 year old has a job where he works a 15 hour day rigging. Everyday. He is there at 6 am until the job is done.

My 21 year old is back temporarily from Nicaragua and is working every shift she can get, 6 to 8 a week.

My 15 year old is still in school and taking 8 credits this year.

There are lots of motivated kids out there. We have a local McDs that hires only motivated kids and boy does that store shine. We have lots of motivated kids in our area lookingfor work and working.


20 posted on 09/14/2013 5:03:21 PM PDT by Chickensoup (...We didn't love freedom enough... Solzhenitsyn.)
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