I won’t say dishonest, but surely shown a pile of doo. I looked at the website palmer referenced and it was clear to me when they were misrepresenting. But they were sophisticated in their scientific presentation, so regular people could look at it and believe. Not know, but believe.
Ask a really good prognosticator if they have 40 years of info, what kind of predictive value could you put on it? 5 years? 7 years? 100 years?
Models don’t generally predict outside their database. And they usually aren’t better than a 1/4 of the time frame. 40 years of date...maybe 10 years of projection.
And mixing of data by accuracy...LOL. Can you predict with a tenth of a degree accuracy, when your data is by the 1/2 degree, or 1/5 degree? Your worst data, determines your accuracy. Much of the non satellite data is horridly gathered, and in dispute on collection methodology. Is surface data collection on land a representative sample enough to predict retention of heat content on the Earth as a whole? A clue, the oceans are the biggest heat sink on the Earth and good luck figuring out their heat content with a 1 degree accuracy (that would include all depths).
The models don’t work predictively. They really never have. That is the replicable part of science and the scientific method. But to put climate “science” in a box...climate is the weather over time. If you cannot predict the weather at a particular time...logical conclusions are a tough mistress...eh Laz?
DK
Science of Doom is quite technical. But there are a few facts that are hard to dispute. The first is that CO2 molecules absorb energy. It is obvious that a small amount is enough because the mean free path of a photon is supposed to be 25 meters. The IR that is absorbed is released in all directions, but roughly half up and half down. WIth the average 25 meters in mind, he atmosphere can be thought of as many layers with CO2 (and water vapor as well) absorbing and releasing heat.
There are a couple easy experiments to verify heat trapping and release. The one I like is to measure temperature (or look at the weather service readings) on partly cloudy but calm nights. If the clouds are patchy and a patch of clouds moves over the station the temperature stops dropping and can even increase.
One way to think about it is a space blanket that reflects IR (not quite the same as absorbing and reemitting, but close enough. Tie the space blanket up in some trees and sit under it. It is not stopping heat loss by stopping convection like a regular blanket wrapped tight, or a sleeping bag. Rather, it is reflecting heat back to you.
The CO2 in the atmosphere does that. You have probably seen the absorption spectra of CO2 and other gases. Since those vary, there are some frequencies that CO2 absorbs and reemits that other gases do not.
The flip side of all this discusson is that water vapor does a lot more absorbing and reemitting and is highly variable due to weather. So the weather mostly dictates how much of the sun's heat is trapped each night and over longer time intervals.
I agree that surface temperatures are badly polluted with urban areas being the prime collection sites. I only refer to satellite measurements for that reason. I also agree that models can't predict anything. Models can't be verified because they don't model weather properly and in many cases do not model it at all.
So how are we supposed to know the effects of adding CO2? I have argued for many years on several forums that the warming in the 90s can't be attributed to CO2, but have argued that part of it was. Even including the late 90;s the warming has been modest, about 0.1C per decade and slowing. There are no bad consequences to that kind of warming and it is in fact good. We will have lower heating bills (we spend twice as much as on cooling). We will have better growing conditions (CO2) and longer seasons. We will have lower death rates because death rates are always highest in winter.
I would rather not argue about this subject at all, but I also want to argue from the best coherence of scientific facts that I can gather. Simple things like warming from clouds at night and the absorption bands of CO2 due to the modes in which CO2 can vibrate that O2 and N2 cannot. There's no good alternative explanations for things like that although I keep reading all the alternatives that I come across.