You make some valid observations. First history showed republicans in a much better place in 96 than now. Polling shows that this is a loser. A shutdown will only magnify this.
To say that he has won already is a poor reading in my opinion. I have said this several times tonight but once again if you lose a coup attempt which this is the survivors will end you. Should Senator Cruz fail to defund Obamacare the establishment will end him. You do not whip the house as a junior senator. It is unprecedented. Since he is he better win or the other members will make it there life’s work to screw him.
On your first point, polling, this far out from a mid-term election, isn’t particularly important. If there were to be a shutdown, how that shutdown is handled is much more important than anything else. Not saying it is a guaranteed winner, just that we don’t know anything for certain. Yet the GOPe is trying to convince you that they do know for certain. They are either lying or wrong.
On your second point, this isn’t a coup attempt. “They” have no ability to take down Cruz. This isn’t some banana republic in Africa (yet?). No matter how this pans out (assuming he doesn’t do anything stupid, which would be very much out of character), he now has one of the safest seats in the Senate. More importantly, he has a fierce, knowledgeable following among those that know that we have to stop playing defense, and start playing offense. He has emerged as a leader that people will follow. As an aside, that is one thing that the GOPe doesn’t understand, and the Democrats do. If you are continually on the offensive, you only need to win a handful of times to come out ahead. But if you are always on the defense, you have to win just about every time.
More to the point, how exactly will the GOPe “end him”. He is beyond there arrows at this point. Right now, virtually every one of the GOPe (in the Senate) is in serious danger of being primaried. Even should they hold out in the primary, they are so weakened that any decent challenger would beat them in the general (with the except of a few, in very republican states). It seems to me that he is much closer to ending them, than they are to ending him.
I will grant that whipping the house as a junior senator is somewhat unprecedented. But maybe someone should have done this long ago? Either way, he is in a very safe seat (almost unbeatable, really), is a natural leader and will have a dedicated following, both at the grassroots level, and within Washington, and there is not a thing that the GOPe can do about it. I stand by my contention that he has already won.
I know that the parallel can be made to Palin. But there was one important distinction. As much as I admire Palin, she was vulnerable because she comes across as flighty (her way of speaking really rubs some people the wrong way, and a lot of people just saw her as stupid). This is by no means an insult to her, she is one of the most courageous politicians this country has seen. But the Democrats and GOPe could spin her as stupid (and other things), and her manner of speech hurt her. They will have a much more difficult time spinning Cruz, who has no such vulnerability.