Are you saying just no increase whatsoever, never? And just see where the chips fall? Really?
You know what I would do if I was House GOP leadership? I’d pass a 4-part debt limit increase immediately, call it the 5/4/3/2 plan:
1. +500B effective 10/01/13
2. +400B effective 10/01/14
3. +300B effective 10/01/15
4. +200B extra, effective 07/01/14 if Administration OK’s Keystone XL prior to 11/01/13 and does not subsequently obstruct.
We have to stay ahead of the markets, if there is going to be a panic let it be while the issue is being fumbled in the Senate, not in the House.
We’re not going to win the Debt Ceiling fight and the sooner we get it out of our hands and into their’s the better. Come up with something that’s both 1) reasonable, and 2) something The Demagogues won’t like, and force them to deal with it. Then we get much better coverage and messaging. It’s too fair an offer for The Demagogues to reject:
1) If the Senate says no, then the market will convulse and it will be The Demagogue’s fault.
2) If gets passed, Obama should be able to keep the Debt increase under $700B, but not likely $500B, so he has no choice but to approve Keystone; but if he rejects KXL, he’ll look bad if he can’t make a $500B increase in credit line last 12 months. And even worse for saying “No” to good public policy like Keystone.
Business/Markets will like the 500/400/300/200 plan because it pushes the issue out another 12 months; Conservatives ought to like it because it embeds a slowing growth of debt. And both will like it because it takes another shot at Keystone, which is a very good issue for us. To moderates it will look reasonable and responsible. And it will drive The Demagogues crazy!
Keystone is a very popular idea, and (almost) everyone accepts that some kind of short term debt limit increase is necessary. For any sane person it is a win-win to offer both to Obama; it will be easy to crush him if he says no. There is no Grand Bargain with this guy - he will just string us along because he thinks we will take the blame. It is all political with him. It is only political with him.
We have to pass some kind of debt ceiling deal before the market pukes and has like a 500 or 1000 point drop. That will be our fault, we’ll fold like a cheap suit like we did with TARP, and it will be embarrassing.
I think you’re onto something here. I would suggest however building in some more conditions like you did in the 200B part. That is, attach a couple more conditions to each of the 5/4/3 increases. The 500B, for example, should have some type of curb on Obamacare. Then add other desirable economic concessions to the remaining two parts.
The old plan with Reagan was 3 dollars in cuts for every 1 dollar in increase. But Reagan never got the cuts. The idea is still good but we gotta have more cuts than increases or we’ll never get the titanic turned around. Iceberg!
Sharing your ideas with some friends but won’t include your FR nick