I think it is not secession but expulsion that is the issue.
I would be less surprised to to see the Blue States try and expel the Red ones. In fact I work with some very left wing fools who are fond of making the argument for expulsion. Interestingly enough they get the Constitutional issue involved. Since the Civil War it is illegal for States to secede but there is no prohibition against expulsion.
The argument they make goes like this
Many Red States (Texas for example) receive more in Federal money than they pay in. If they expel Texas and the other red States then there is actually more Federal money for liberal programs.
The problem is the way they figure the amount of Federal money. It includes things like expenditures on military bases, military payroll and the purchase of things like fighter planes that are made in Ft. Worth. These are not generally items that are considered a subsidy in any sense except liberal math.
It also includes payments to various welfare recipients which should the then Republic of Texas cease to pay would happily move legally or otherwise to a Blues State and the Republic of Texas might be glad to see them go. Texas might even facilitate the immigration process.
I tried pointing this out to a couple of leftist but they didn’t understand
Expulsion would be the best thing to happen to Texas. Free from the EPA, Texas would be the #1 producer of fossil fuels in the world within two years.