Replies

I hate to find myself agreeing with Nate Silver, but he is mostly right. The negative consequences will be minimal. In 95-96, the shutdown occurred at the worst possible time for Republicans: the massive victory in 94 meant that there were a disproportionate number of vulnerable freshman Republicans, many in deep blue districts; it was a presidential election, where Republicans tend to not fare as well; Bob Dole vs. Bill Clinton; the economy was doing well, which greatly helped Clinton. And, most importantly, the shutdown lacked focus -- it was a distant budget battle, not something that affected people directly. In fact, it was such an unfocused shutdown, that many people genuinely believed that the shutdown occurred because Newt had to sit at the back of the plane.

In other words, it was a perfect storm, working against the Republicans. And still ... a small number of lost house seats, and pickups in the senate. Hardly the end of the world. In fact, it is reasonable to conclude that the shutdown may have helped the Republicans since, given all of the factors working against them, they did remarkably well.

But he is not completely right. The shutdown, if it does not result in a cave, will have a dramatic effect on Republican turnout. Quite simply, if the Republicans cave, they will get slaughtered in 2014 (just as they would have if the house and Cruz had not acted). Conservatives, who make up the most volatile voting block in the Republican party, will sit home. And all of the dreams of retaking the senate will disappear. However, if the Republicans hold the line, conservatives will show up in force. Maybe not enough to win the Senate, but certainly enough to stave off disaster.

And if Democrats start becoming apathetic, which is a distinct possibility, it could easily be another 94/2010.

Assuming the Republicans don't cave, that is.

I would agree with your analysis.

The senate is within reach if Karl Rove’s goon squad don’t try to ruin everything just to spite us. We now have about an hour’s worth of footage of Queen Mary making sweet love to Obamacare on the senate floor.

I agree I didn’t buy into Nate Silvers analytics. Figured he was a hack for the NYTimes....but he’s nailed it two elections in a row. I bought in to Fox news’s and Drudges guys....but Nate has the hot hand.