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Time to take bets on Frexit and the French franc?
Daily Telegraph ^ | 14 October, 2013 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 10/14/2013 8:29:13 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy

We have a minor earthquake in France. A party committed to withdrawal from the euro, the restoration of French franc, and the complete destruction of monetary union has just defeated the establishment in the Brignoles run-off election.

It is threatening Frexit as well, which rather alters the political chemistry of Britain's EU referendum.

Marine Le Pen's Front National won 54pc of the vote. It was a bad defeat for the Gaulliste UMP, a party at risk of disintegration unless it can find a leader in short order.

President Hollande's Socialists were knocked out in the first round, due to mass defection to the Front National by the working-class Socialist base. The Socialists thought the Front worked to their advantage by splitting the Right. They have at last woken up to the enormous political danger.

The Front National is now the most popular party in France with 24pc according to a new Ifop poll. Both the two great governing parties of the post-War era have fallen behind for the first time ever. The Gaullistes (UMP) are at 22pc, and the Socialists at 21pc.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: eu; euro; evanspritchard; france; frontnational
A replay of the 1930s in France. Then the Laval government tried deflationary policies to keep France in the Gold Standard. Eventually the governmetn fell and the Gold Standard with it, but not until France was totally devastated.
1 posted on 10/14/2013 8:29:13 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy
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To: Olog-hai; SAJ; Hardraade

PING!


2 posted on 10/14/2013 8:36:18 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: ScaniaBoy

When Marine LePen begins winning seats in the north along the Belgian border she’ll have my attention. FN’s base has long been Marseilles and the surrounding area. Brignoles appears to be about 30 minutes by car from Marseilles.

LePen runs on three issues: law & order, immigration and economic (and cultural— this is France after all)protectionism. Watch to see if she promises to increase the protectionism in an effort to attract left wing voters in the north.


3 posted on 10/14/2013 9:21:33 AM PDT by ameribbean expat
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To: ScaniaBoy
D o NOT look for spec plays on the (putative new) French franc.

Do not do it.

Even should France leave EMU (there's no lawful way to do this, btw), the "new" franc will be shudderingly unstable...its existence will be completely dependent on how much support it will get from its trading partners. In the case of EU, that support will be sharply diminished. China will support French trade, also likely Japan and Singapore. The US will still buy Bic pens and some fashions, but the US tacitly supports EU, and certainly will support EU in preference to a newly (in the currency sense) 'independent' France.

It will/would be a dog's dinner and there are MUCH better Forex plays.

Good trading to you!

4 posted on 10/14/2013 9:26:19 AM PDT by SAJ
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To: ScaniaBoy
Her four sticking points on EU membership are withdrawal from the currency, the restoration of French border control, the primacy of French law, and what she calls "economic patriotism", the power for France to pursue "intelligent protectionism" and safeguard its social model. "I cannot imagine running economic policy without full control over our own money," she said.

Can't fault her for that.

5 posted on 10/14/2013 9:38:49 AM PDT by Zuben Elgenubi
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To: ScaniaBoy
I don't wish to get into a debate about whether or not the Front National has genuinely purged its anti-Semites, or whether its immigration and culture policies must inevitably lead to a drastic showdown with France's 5m-plus Muslims. This is a finance blog.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been a good reporter for nearly 20 years. He was the first international author to bring Bill Clinton to task for some of his illegality, esp lying under oath.

6 posted on 10/14/2013 9:41:25 AM PDT by Zuben Elgenubi
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To: SAJ

What’s “lawful” about the European Union? Study that entity closer.

There have been reports of Germany printing new Deutsche marks.


7 posted on 10/14/2013 9:45:07 AM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: SAJ

Thanks for the advice!

No, I wouldn’t play on the new French Franc. However, I may place a bet that FN will win the French elections to the european parliament next spring.

BTW what you point out here (...the US tacitly supports EU) is important and part of the crony-capitalism that I hope one day to see Palin/Cruz/Lee et co shoot down.


8 posted on 10/14/2013 9:48:52 AM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: Olog-hai
M'FRiend, Germany can do ANYthing it wants: without dispute, Germany IS the EMU -- minus Germany, the Euro does not exist.

The correlate to this is that no other EMU member is allowed to point any fingers whatever at Germany. Euro or no, EU or no, Germany is in the catbird seat. The Germans can cut almost every EMU (or EU) nation off at the knees, should they for some reason want to do so.

Sorry, mate. The situation of Germany is not analogous to that of France.

9 posted on 10/14/2013 11:00:14 AM PDT by SAJ
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To: SAJ
While I agree that France leaving the EMU on its own is not a winning proposition for France I have to wonder, will that act embolden other dissatisfied members of the EMU to leave? Is France banking on starting a chain reaction?
10 posted on 10/14/2013 11:36:48 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: SAJ
I didn’t compare Germany to France, though. Nevertheless, with Germany keeping its home currency alive, something is definitely afoot. Not to mention that the more powerful the EU member state is, the more it gets to flout the rules.

I know about Germany leading the EU, albeit unofficially. And nowadays we have people like Walter Russell Mead calling for that country “to lead a Holy Roman Empire in Europe” . . . if he really knew what he was saying, I think he might have to walk that one back.
11 posted on 10/14/2013 12:20:13 PM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: FlipWilson

If one major player goes, the exit doors will be jammed straightaway. My guess, oddly, is that Italy would follow France — not Greece or Cyprus or Ireland. The Italians have chafed enormously under the EMU playbook.


12 posted on 10/14/2013 1:10:59 PM PDT by SAJ
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To: Olog-hai
Not a bad analogy, really. The Holy Roman Empire wasn't holy, or Roman, or an empire. Some points of similarity here.

;^)

13 posted on 10/14/2013 1:13:09 PM PDT by SAJ
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