Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Monmouth, Ocean and Cape May Counties are probably in the win column for Lonegan (Sussex, Warren and Hunterdon definately are).
Essex, Hudson, Camden, Passaic & Mercer are likely wins for Booker. Unfortunately they have the largest populations.
Bergen, Union, Middlesex, Burlington, Gloucester, Atlantic, Salem and Cumberland are unknowns. They conceivably could go either way depending on turnout and other factors.
I would lean Middlesex, Atlantic, Salem and Cumberland toward Booker based on the urban votes in those counties outnumbering the rural votes. Union County is a mix of suburban and urban and trends democrat but has elected Republicans in the not so distant past.
Bergen, Union, Burlington, Atlantic and Middlesex have large populations. Cumberland and Salem not so much.
If Newark has a low turnout for Booker then it could be an interesting night.
Thanks for your assessment...It’d be great to see Lonegan pull this out.