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Poll: Grimes Edging McConnell in Kentucky
RCP ^ | October 17, 2013 | Scott Conroy

Posted on 10/19/2013 12:26:14 PM PDT by nickcarraway

Voters in the Bluegrass State aren't pleased with the state of affairs in Washington, and they appear to be taking it out on Mitch McConnell.

The Senate minority leader narrowly trails Kentucky's Democratic secretary of state, Alison Lundergan Grimes, in his 2014 re-election bid, according to a new survey conducted by the Democratically affiliated Public Policy Polling for progressive group Americans United for Change.

Lundergan Grimes leads McConnell by a two-point margin (45 percent to 43 percent), which is within the poll’s margin of error (plus or minus 2.8 percent). Twelve percent of respondents remained undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky
KEYWORDS: kentucky; lundergangrimes; mattbevin; mitchmcconnell
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1 posted on 10/19/2013 12:26:14 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

McConnell should be defeated in the primary, but he has seriously smeared his opponent so badly that it’s likely he’s given the Democrat the victory.

If he can’t have it, then nobody can have it.


2 posted on 10/19/2013 12:30:54 PM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: nickcarraway

Apparently, pork sells in KY. The PPP Democrats must be polling mostly Democrats....unless the GOP voters of KY are actually proud of the pathetic job McConnell has done the last three decades.


3 posted on 10/19/2013 12:31:18 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: nickcarraway

Buh-bye Mitch. Don’t let the bridge hit you on your way out.


4 posted on 10/19/2013 12:32:39 PM PDT by MUDDOG
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To: txrefugee

I don’t know any Kentuckians, but I have to assume they will be happy with their 2 billion dollar present from McConnell. Everyone is against pork, except when it’s their pork.


5 posted on 10/19/2013 12:33:25 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: xzins

If his republican opponent loses in the primary he should change to independent and continue to run against this RINO. Better to lose the seat to a documented democrat than keep an undocumented one wearing a republican mask with the intention of redefining the word “republican”.


6 posted on 10/19/2013 12:34:51 PM PDT by tsowellfan (www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: nickcarraway
At 43% McConnell is in deep deep trouble as an incumbent. I for one cannot bring myself to say that I'm distressed. It is a bittersweet contemplation to think of McConnell losing that seat to a Democrat and I don't know whether the loss is worth the therapeutic effect on the rest of those scoundrels pretending to be Republicans in the United States Senate.

I expect McConnell will try to run as the adult who saved the country from Ted Cruz while at the same time trying to save his constituents from the pain of Obamacare. He no doubt will have a ton of earmarks, such as that which was slipped into the CR reopening the government, to bolster his numbers.

Nevertheless, an incumbent at 43% is in trouble.


7 posted on 10/19/2013 12:35:36 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nickcarraway

Maybe Matt Bevin will rise to the top. Heard him on Levin yesterday.

http://www.kentucky.com/2013/10/18/2882981/matt-bevin-wins-endorsement-from.html


8 posted on 10/19/2013 12:38:10 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 & 2012 weren't elections - they were coup d'etats.)
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To: nickcarraway
Mitch loves his pork.
9 posted on 10/19/2013 12:39:47 PM PDT by JPG (Yes We Can morphs into Make It Hurt.)
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To: nickcarraway

ppp is the worst


10 posted on 10/19/2013 12:41:58 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: nickcarraway

Here’s my question: If McConnell goes down, who becomes Minority Leader (or, hopefully, Majority Leader) in the Senate?


11 posted on 10/19/2013 12:44:09 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: tsowellfan

Maybe we could convince him to run in the democrat primary against Grimes.

He’d probably agree, but want to run in the republican one at the same time.

“Might as well reflect reality.” he’d be thinking.


12 posted on 10/19/2013 12:45:06 PM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: nickcarraway

As a Kentucky born Republican (Lexington), I am pleased that the McConnell’s of our era might be voted out of office, please!

The problem is that there is no one else to elect that could be reliable. Such is the political life we endure (as Conservatives). Too many are looking for handouts from the government and it will not change - goodies are the way of politicians, mostly for themselves and the elections but of course it buys votes. Past recovery for Americans, but looking good for those invading us. Just scream Constitutional rights and ;you will get your share...

So, do you really see any way out of this mess?


13 posted on 10/19/2013 12:47:05 PM PDT by Deagle (m)
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To: nickcarraway

I hope a couple of these “Jack***es get tossed.


14 posted on 10/19/2013 12:47:11 PM PDT by Fire137
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To: xzins

What’s to stop McConnel from pulling the Lieberman-Murkowski sleazeball maneuver and running as an Independent if he loses the primary? Getting these saboteurs out of the US Senate might be a fools errand. It might be better to have an HOR that doesn’t back down.


15 posted on 10/19/2013 12:47:12 PM PDT by grania
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To: nickcarraway

two words....MATT BEVIN


16 posted on 10/19/2013 12:48:55 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: nickcarraway

MATT BEVIN FOR SENATE


17 posted on 10/19/2013 12:49:27 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Aria

It will be very difficult for Bevin to overtake Senator McConnell.

His people are firmly entrenched in the state Republican apparatus. In fact, some folks think one of the biggest reasons that the Kentucky governorship has remained in the hands of Democrats so long (despite having GOP reps at nearly EVERY federal office) is because of McConnell’s fear of a potential challenger to his position.

Senator Paul’s win over McConnell’s chosen candidate was most likely a fluke; most state contestants won’t be able to tap into a donor/activist base like the Paul family had developed.

Until Mitch’s influence is removed from the state party, it’s doubtful that many conservative candidates will win elections in Kentucky.

IMO.


18 posted on 10/19/2013 12:52:52 PM PDT by Bratch
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To: Lancey Howard

John Cornyn if he gets re-elected, and senators respect seniority, which they are doing less and less these days


19 posted on 10/19/2013 12:53:40 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

So, it wouldn’t be McCain?


20 posted on 10/19/2013 12:54:21 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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21 posted on 10/19/2013 1:01:30 PM PDT by RedMDer (http://www.dontfundobamacare.com/)
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To: nathanbedford

It seems to me discussion at this point in the game confuses the process a bit. Discussing the Dem challenger as likely or automatically being a win is rather presumptuous at this point.

McConnell has had years of support from Kentucky and it came under the Republican Brand. Because McConnell is a lilly livered power hungry appeasing simp with gravitas and second-banana status points to the obvious to me - that state would not elect a Democrat Senator. I am probably wrong but the history here doesn’t show it.

Now, bring in McConnell’s primary challenger and see what happens. He loses and the challenger rises; it doesn’t automatically follow that Dem candidate wins. Not by a long shot, especially since that 2 or 3 billion in pork is already there and irrevocable in my mind.


22 posted on 10/19/2013 1:06:26 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Lancey Howard

No. Leadership seniority is as follows.

Mitch McConnell(KY)
John Cornyn (TX)
John Thune (SD)
John Barrasso (WY)
Roy Blunt (MO)

None of them should be the senate Republican leader.


23 posted on 10/19/2013 1:15:24 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: xzins

We can call it the Luger syndrome. Me-before-party. I lose, I will punish the party I represent.


24 posted on 10/19/2013 1:19:19 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama is proving that very bad ideas can be wrapped up in pretty words)
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To: nickcarraway

Switch McConnell may have to run as a DemocRAT.


25 posted on 10/19/2013 1:22:08 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Hold on to your sombrero! Here comes amnesty! The GOP is on a roll!)
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To: nathanbedford

That used to be the case, but we saw Harry Reid victorious despite a horrible rating at home. We saw Bill Nelson here in Florida rocket up from 39% in June 2012 to winning handily in November. We also saw Obama floating in the low-mid 40s a year or so out and cruise to reelection. Enough voters seem to be able to be tricked in the six months before election to forget they are PO’d at their elected official and end up casting another vote for them.


26 posted on 10/19/2013 1:22:14 PM PDT by ilgipper (Obama is proving that very bad ideas can be wrapped up in pretty words)
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To: Gaffer

I see it a little different.

While I agree this polling should be taken with a grain of salt, especially with how early it is and how much McConnell is likely to outspend Grimey in the end, he is a serious liability for the same reason Romney was.
The base won’t turn out for Mitch. Kentucky is a red state on the senatorial level. Rand Paul would have no trouble with his reelection. But Mitch is corrupt, and is disliked across all party affiliations.

There isn’t much doubt in my mind at all that if Matt Bevin won the primary, he’d cruise to a 5-6 point victory of the Democrats, and probably a larger margin upon reelection, because Grimes has high name ID, and I think the rats would lack such a challenger next time.

And just to emphasize, Matt Bevin is endorsed by the SCF. He’s a conservative, and an outsider with a lot of spirit. My senses tell me he’d be what Ron Johnson should have been.


27 posted on 10/19/2013 1:22:46 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Bratch

“Senator Paul’s win over McConnell’s chosen candidate”

Hold up. You mean incumbent Jim Bunning? The reason Bunning retired was because of McConnell. From what I can tell, Bunning was unpopular in the state (albeit not as unpopular as Mitch right now), and McConnell personally disliked him. He dried up the Kentucky apparatus funds for Bunning and forced him out.

In a weird way, you can thank Mitch that we have Rand Paul.


28 posted on 10/19/2013 1:25:11 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

All I want is that anyone that has the luck, determination - whatever to beat out one of these damned traitorous RINOs goes to Washington DC with a torch to burn down that mess of Country Club Powerati traditions and starts thinking about us out here in the land that Obama and his ilk know nothing about.


29 posted on 10/19/2013 1:26:14 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: ilgipper

Yes, the Reid issue occurred to me as well.

The precedent for party leaders being ousted by losing general elections and not retiring, is not much to look at. They’re just extremely hard to beat, no matter how low they poll. That being said, I do think Grimey could be a spoiler, which is why I back Matt Bevin. He’d win the seat hands down.


30 posted on 10/19/2013 1:27:48 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: italianquaker

They may be the worst politically but PPP finished first out of 28 national polls in predicting the 2012 election result.

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11


31 posted on 10/19/2013 1:30:09 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
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To: nickcarraway

That’s what happens, Mitch.


32 posted on 10/19/2013 1:30:49 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: nickcarraway

All broke up about this.

Why, this calls for broken glass Republicans to walk the precincts to Save Our Guy.

Oh wait....he doesn’t really like us.

Never mind.


33 posted on 10/19/2013 1:36:54 PM PDT by Regulator
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To: nickcarraway
We're a year away from the actual election. Between now and then there's going to be a little thing called a campaign that will determine who the eventual winner is.

Grimes may be polling ok now, but anyone who's ever sat on the banks of the Ohio around Louisville and seen the massive tows of coal out on the river knows that a Democrat is going to have a very, very tough time winning a Senate seat.

Gubernatorial elections in KY allow Conservative Democrats to really isolate themselves from their Party and President. Democrats running for Senate don't really have this kind of cover. Grimes had to be bullied and threatened to run against McConnell for just this reason (after Judd ran screaming away in terror) ... she wants to be the next Governor, had an excellent chance of being it, but knows that when McConnell is done with her, her negatives will be incredibly high that she probably won't have a shot.

Grimes, as part of this, is also trying to run to the right of McConnell on coal and guns. Which is about her only option. But being a youngin' she doesn't have the kind of political street cred Joe Manchin built up over YEARS in WV to fully inoculate herself from Obama's coal policies and the big gun control push.

So I'd take any suggestion that Bevin is a better candidate because he'll have a better shot at beating Grimes than McConnell will with a well-deserved grain of salt. But it also goes without saying that Bevin's much more of a palatable Conservative candidate than McConnell is. Plenty of reason to support Bevin based on ideology, rather than electability.
34 posted on 10/19/2013 1:45:44 PM PDT by tanknetter
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To: Nero Germanicus

This is one poll i wouldnt worry about


35 posted on 10/19/2013 1:47:39 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: Bratch
In fact, some folks think one of the biggest reasons that the Kentucky governorship has remained in the hands of Democrats

More rationale to ditch the 17th amendment. With a Conservative legislature, mcabominable would be gone.

36 posted on 10/19/2013 1:49:59 PM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: italianquaker

Yeah, me either.


37 posted on 10/19/2013 1:51:29 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
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To: Viennacon

I guess I don’t understand what the definition of “seniority” is, since McCain has been a senator since 1987 and Cornyn since 2002.


38 posted on 10/19/2013 2:00:44 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: nickcarraway

Basically, having a Dim in this spot ain’t much worse than having this slime bag in office. One and the same.


39 posted on 10/19/2013 2:02:29 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (I am proud to be a Christian and follower of my Lord Jesus Christ. Time is short for U to know Him!)
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To: Lancey Howard

Yeah, I’m not talking about age seniority (otherwise Thad Cochran would be some kind of king), but leadership seniority or rank. McLame for reasons unbeknownst to me has never been part of the leadership to my knowledge, though someone with more knowledge might correct me.


40 posted on 10/19/2013 2:05:26 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

Hatch, Cochran, and Grassley have all served in the senate longer than McConnell. Most Republican senators have served longer than Barrasso and Blunt. I guess “seniority” is one of those mysterious things that’s made up as they go along.


41 posted on 10/19/2013 2:05:37 PM PDT by Lancey Howard
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To: Lancey Howard

You’re absolutely correct, but I am actually glad those guys are not in the leadership. In the end, you really accrue leadership seniority by arm twisting and deal making.

I don’t think Reid is the oldest on the rat side.


42 posted on 10/19/2013 2:09:50 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Lancey Howard

“Seniority” as used here is misleading. The leadership team is elected by the party caucus in the Senate, regardless of their length of service.

This is a chain-of-command list.


43 posted on 10/19/2013 2:14:38 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: xzins

Sure hope he loses, and maybe then he’ll learn something from the first “kick of the mule”.


44 posted on 10/19/2013 2:25:11 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: C210N
yeah!

45 posted on 10/19/2013 2:32:08 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (who'll take tomorrow,$pend it all today;who can take your income & tax it all away..0'Blowfly can :-)
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To: zencycler

Exactly. At this point Rs and Ds (with the exception of Cruz) are just one party....It really no longer matters which side wins, it’s all the same.


46 posted on 10/19/2013 2:35:01 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: RetiredArmy

You’re joking right? Are you listening to yourself? It’s not Democrats doing our party in. We’re killing ourselves.


47 posted on 10/19/2013 2:39:10 PM PDT by paul544
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To: nickcarraway

Early news flash: the Kentucky doughboy is retiring. For the next year and a half, he’ll be busily feathering his retirement nest. Oh, he’ll go through the motions and make sure he has a nice, well-funded PAC for his “re-election.” But he’ll decide to retire in I’d say the spring.

Heck, he’s probably measured the curtains in his new K street office already.


48 posted on 10/19/2013 2:41:04 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Power disintegrates when people withdraw their obedience and support)
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To: nickcarraway

Grimes probably will get 45% of the vote.


49 posted on 10/19/2013 3:03:42 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: nickcarraway

The pollsters just act like Matt Bevin doesn’t exist. I believe Bevin can beat McConnell in the primary and Grimes in the general. I do tend to agree that Grimes would knock off McConnell mostly because Kentuckians are fed up with him. But I don’t think Grimes can beat Bevin. The media and pollsters are trying to give the voters the impression that McConnell’s primary win is a done deal. I don’t think so.


50 posted on 10/19/2013 3:03:56 PM PDT by lakecumberlandvet (Appeasement never works.)
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