You are wrong. McDonnell won the state recently with over 60% of the vote. The GOP picked up and held the majority of House seats in Virginia. The problem in 2012 was Romney and a state GOP that managed to depress turnout and interest by making sure only Ron Paul and Romney were on the Virginia primary ballot. Sure NOVA is a problem but its not nearly as big of a problem when you actually have money to run ads and you really work to define the Democrat candidate. That is something that wasn’t done by Team Romney.
Cuccinelli has ran a solid campaign but he has been trying to re-run the McDonnell campaign against McAuliffe and McAuliffe is no mild mannered Creigh Deeds. We can win in VA but we have to work for it and that is something conservatives and GOP seem to have a problem with. They want things delivered on a platter with polls and media trimmings. We won big in the midterms of 2010 and we didn’t have the media on our side. If anything everyone was against us.
We won a seat in MA. The way we did it is everyone pitched in and helped win that seat. I had fundraising letters hitting me from nearly every conservative organization. Brown raised 12 million in under 2 weeks. I’ve never seen such a mobilization since then. Why not? If we can do it for one race in an off election why not a Governors race in Virginia? Virginia used to be a blue state with full Democrat control of the legislature not long ago. So these things do not always move one direction.
No, I am not wrong. McDonnell's victory was due in large part to an historic low Dem turnout coupled with unhappiness with Obama that was reflected in Christie winning in NJ and Brown in MA. McDonnell, Bolling, and Cuccinelli all won big.
The GOP picked up and held the majority of House seats in Virginia
The House of Delegates was the only bright spot. A 20-20 Senate restrained what could be done even though Bolling held the deciding vote, which he self-limited.
The problem in 2012 was Romney and a state GOP that managed to depress turnout and interest by making sure only Ron Paul and Romney were on the Virginia primary ballot.
The Rep vote in VA was not depressed. We had a massive GOTV effort led not only by the GOP but also We are Virginia. In 2008 the Reps had 1,725,005 compared to 1,822,522 in 2012--an almost 100,000 vote increase compared to just a 12,000 vote increase for Obama. Obama still won by 150,000 in 2012. The 2012 vote for the Reps was the highest in its history.
Sure NOVA is a problem but its not nearly as big of a problem when you actually have money to run ads and you really work to define the Democrat candidate. That is something that wasn’t done by Team Romney.
It had nothing to do with money. It has to do with demographics and the changing nature of NoVA. Here in Fairfax County, where I have lived since 1979, the electoral balance has shifted. It started in 2004 when Kerry won Fairfax County, the first time that was done since 1964. Obama won Fairfax by 109,000 in 2012 and by 110,000 in 2008. The Reps increased their vote total in 2012 by 7,000 but still lost. 30% of the residents of Fairfax County are foreign-born compared to 15% in 1990. These have electoral implications along with the growth of the federal government.
Cuccinelli has ran a solid campaign but he has been trying to re-run the McDonnell campaign against McAuliffe and McAuliffe is no mild mannered Creigh Deeds.
McDonnell's scandal has hurt Cuccinelli along with his own acceptance of gifts, which he voluntarily disclosed. Ken is one of the best campaigners and grassroots politicians, but he is dealing with a new political reality. Also, EW Jackson on the ticket has been a drag. I was a delegate at the convention and it was a contentious fight/ Also, Bill Bolling has been a sore loser along with many of his supporters. When you have someone like Boyd Marcus endorsing McAwful, you know you have a problem within the GOP.
We can win in VA but we have to work for it and that is something conservatives and GOP seem to have a problem with. They want things delivered on a platter with polls and media trimmings. We won big in the midterms of 2010 and we didn’t have the media on our side. If anything everyone was against us.
You can't compare 2010 to today. Kaine was elected easily in 2012 getting even more votes than Obama. The only way Cuccinelli wins is to have a low Dem turnout and big GOP turnout. It is going to be tough. Here in NoVA, the Dems are energized. Cuccinelli is described as a right wing radical. Statewide Cuccinelli is trailing by 20% with women. Hillary and Bill have hit the campaign trail to support McAwful. And the government shutdown has helped stoke the fires of many federal employees.
And then there is the impact of folks like Cantor and Goodlatte supporting amnesty for the Dreamers that have turned a lot of conservatives off. Cuccinelli is being hurt by the GOP in-fighting.
We won a seat in MA. The way we did it is everyone pitched in and helped win that seat. I had fundraising letters hitting me from nearly every conservative organization. Brown raised 12 million in under 2 weeks. I’ve never seen such a mobilization since then. Why not? If we can do it for one race in an off election why not a Governors race in Virginia? Virginia used to be a blue state with full Democrat control of the legislature not long ago. So these things do not always move one direction.
The move now is to a solid blue state within the next decade. The demographics of the state have changed. Just as CA has moved to a solid blue state, so will VA. It is inevitable. NoVA will continue to dominate more and more statewide elections. We are being outnumbered. One of the reasons Cuccinelli ran for AG in 2009 is that he barely retained his NoVA state senate seat by a few hundred votes. Fairfax County, Arlington County, and Alexandria give the Dems a huge cushion. When you add the cities like Norfolk, Richmond, Hampton, and Roanoke where the Dems also ring up big numbers, it is getting harder and harder to win a statewide election. We have entered the era of tribal politics and the GOP is losing.