Third parties don't win but can be spoilers.
If Bush I had won 1992, then Clinton might have been elected in 1996 and been president during 9/11. If there was an incumbent bump in 2004, Gore would’ve been elected. Then the economy crash would have put McCain in in 2008. And Obama might have beat him in 2012. And we’d be right back to where we are today, except with McCainCare instead of Obamacare.