Could be. Poor visibility and Smyrna airport’s runways are similar in orientation to BNA. Wouldn’t be hard to confuse the two at that time of day (night), especially if the pilot wasn’t familiar with the local flying area.
Nashville has a 24 hour tower -
http://www.airnav.com/airport/KBNA
So either the Cessna’s ELT did not go off, or the tower was not monitoring the 121.5 frequency.
The NTSB report will be interesting.
Just heard a report on the early morning news and they said the guy’s plane was registered to a flying club in Ontario, Canada, though his name hasn’t been released yet. They said he’d been flying since 1989 but didn’t say if he’d been to this area often or not.
He may have been to TN enough to feel comfortable about where he was but the fog was thick enough to make him miss his mark. He may well have thought he was landing at Smyrna and that’s why he didn’t radio in first.