Because at the beginning, using consultants recommended by the national GOP, Cuccinelli moderated his "tone", criticized the shutdown and Ted Cruz, and was passive in the face of attacks. It's only after he jettisoned the advice of the consultants and went on the offensive that he went from double-digits down to competitive. If he hadn't listened to the moderates in the first place (and had a little USEFUL help from the GOP), he would have won...