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Why Most Postmortems of Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race Are Wrong
Roll Call Rothenblog ^ | 11/11/13 | Stu Rothenberg

Posted on 11/13/2013 5:52:03 AM PST by 1010RD

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Good analysis of Cuccinelli's loss. If we want to win we have to know the numbers and operate within them. That's the only path to victory.
1 posted on 11/13/2013 5:52:03 AM PST by 1010RD
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To: neverdem; SoConPubbie

Of interest.


2 posted on 11/13/2013 5:53:03 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

Any postmortem will be flawed which ignores the documented presence of large and intimidating Black thugs outside polling places.


3 posted on 11/13/2013 5:54:16 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: 1010RD

And of course, there’s the usual voter fraud that puts the Democrat over the top.

Notice how there was just enough votes for Mcauliffe to avoid the mandatory recount. How convenient.


4 posted on 11/13/2013 5:57:03 AM PST by txrefugee
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To: Jack Hammer

That’s excuse making. We need to win, despite the thuggery of the other side.


5 posted on 11/13/2013 5:58:15 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: txrefugee

If that’s their SOP, then we need to operate within those parameters. If we were talking strategy/tactics of a military campaign we’d simply account for the enemies tricks and beat them harder.


6 posted on 11/13/2013 5:59:08 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Jack Hammer
In summary..

Virginia has gone blue.

7 posted on 11/13/2013 6:02:31 AM PST by Tula Git (There IS a coup in America and it's on track and almost complete.)
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To: Tula Git

It has not. Reread the article. Cuccinelli needed a better campaign than Romney.


8 posted on 11/13/2013 6:06:00 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Jack Hammer

The takeaway on the Virginia election is - McAuliffe won on a plurality. Like Bill Clinton in 1992, it took a “spoiler” to tip the election his way.

But McAuliffe is no Bill Clinton, and he will not make much of a mark as governor.

Still, it is a great springboard for a Cabinet position under Herself, Madame Benghazi, the Cold & Joyless.


9 posted on 11/13/2013 6:07:38 AM PST by alloysteel (Men may not always be capable of evil, but they are always capable of incompetence.)
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To: 1010RD

My take away is that the 3rd party killed the Republicans, again.

Though I heard that the 3rd party voters second choice leaned Democrat.


10 posted on 11/13/2013 6:08:12 AM PST by cicero2k
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To: 1010RD

BTTT


11 posted on 11/13/2013 6:09:58 AM PST by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: Tula Git
"Virginia has gone blue."

Pretty much sums it up, and unfortunately demographics is destiny.

12 posted on 11/13/2013 6:12:08 AM PST by buckalfa (Tilting at Windmills)
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To: 1010RD
What happened was that we failed to punch back the Progressive/Liberal bullies hard enough or not at all. Mr Nice Guy is not winning at all and the Bullies are successfully smearing the nice guys as Mr Evil every time.

It's time to punch back fast and call them out as Demonizers and Anti-Americans. And this includes the Lamestream Press.

13 posted on 11/13/2013 6:12:16 AM PST by sr4402
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To: 1010RD
It has not. Reread the article. Cuccinelli needed a better campaign than Romney.

Here in Northern Virginia, Cuccinelli was almost invisible on mass media because he was swamped 5:1 or more by Democrat advertising.

Also we are normally solicited by mail and telephone to contribute to the (R) candidates - if that occurred in this election I didn't see it.

Without money, it's next to impossible to win any statewide election in VA.

14 posted on 11/13/2013 6:12:48 AM PST by JackOfVA
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To: Tula Git

I live in Virginia and what happened was McAwfull flooded the airwaves with attack ads starting in the summer. There was no response. It was very disheartening. The low info types were brainwashed for months, to make it worse it was a cartoon smear campaign that was engineered for the low IQ types. The non response even made Cuch look “guilty”, even to me - it was ridiculous to not respond.


15 posted on 11/13/2013 6:19:46 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 1010RD
Romney lost in Virginia with 47% of the vote: See Link

That's less than Cuccinelli got in his run for governor.

16 posted on 11/13/2013 6:26:00 AM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: 1010RD
Cuccinelli needed a better campaign than Romney.

What you are saying might make sense if Romney had actually won in Virginia. Too bad he didn't though.

17 posted on 11/13/2013 6:27:57 AM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: JackOfVA

I have the same observations. They didn’t try to get the message out and when they did, it was too late to get them over the top. The libretardian didn’t help, but he wasn’t the reason Cucc lost.


18 posted on 11/13/2013 6:28:37 AM PST by newnhdad (Our new motto: USA, it was fun while it lasted.)
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To: 1010RD

If it’s true that pubs stayed home in decisive numbers for this election, they were the sore loser, Bolling crowd, I surmise.
In the future, Bolling = toast


19 posted on 11/13/2013 6:29:52 AM PST by matginzac
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To: vbmoneyspender

Correction - should have said the spread between Cuccinelli and McAuliff was less than that between Romney and Obama.


20 posted on 11/13/2013 6:30:01 AM PST by vbmoneyspender
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To: 1010RD

I think a lot of republicans were really mad that the VA GOP gave them a choice between Romney and Ron Paul in the presidential primary. I recall many folks saying that was the last straw for them.

FReegards


21 posted on 11/13/2013 6:34:53 AM PST by Ransomed
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To: 1010RD

The rats poured 20 million into terry’s coronation... voter intimidation, voter fraud, stealing votes, buying votes and a republican party aligned with terry and the rats... and their absolute abandonment of Cuch... this is what cost Cuch a Victory.


22 posted on 11/13/2013 6:37:22 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS! BETTER DEAD THAN RED!)
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To: 1010RD

These “wealthy” Virginians for McAwful are the U.S. government employees surrounding D.C.


23 posted on 11/13/2013 6:37:41 AM PST by Theodore R. (The grand pooh-bahs are flirting with Christie, but it's Jebbie's turn!" to LOSE!)
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To: JackOfVA
Lack of money to counter Obama/Romney strategy of identifying Kooch as evil early.

The govt. shutdown did affect NoVa, and Kooch.

Third party probably didn't help, but I did hear mixed results. Knowing now that the fake libertarian was bought and paid by liberals tells me his intention (if not result) was to hurt Kucinelli.

24 posted on 11/13/2013 6:38:30 AM PST by chiller (NBCNews et al is in the tank and should be embarrassed)
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To: JackOfVA

My take hasn’t changed. The GOPe made little effort to GOTV of their country club GOPer set. That’s why KC lost. KC wasn’t their guy and they didn’t have much desire to carrying him over the finish line.

What I find interesting is that the VA gov race was much more important to the Dems than the GOP. That’s why they won.


25 posted on 11/13/2013 6:39:01 AM PST by lodi90
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To: lodi90

The GOP basically admits they’d rather have a Democrat win than a Tea Partier.


26 posted on 11/13/2013 6:40:38 AM PST by dfwgator (Fire Muschamp.)
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To: 1010RD

OK, so the voters demography turn out seemed to favor Republicans.

Yet the article barely mentioned if the votes Cuccinelli supposedly lost went to the libertarian candidate. Is there a demography break-down of what the 3rd candidate attracted?


27 posted on 11/13/2013 6:43:43 AM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: Jack Hammer

Black thugs outside white polling places? Seriously?


28 posted on 11/13/2013 6:47:52 AM PST by Mr. Lucky
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To: Sir Napsalot; All

Another thing I should point out. This article relied heavily (if not solely) on the exit poll numbers.

Even if (bold) we assume the exit poll numbers are correct, this does not account for the ‘unseen’ votes Democrats almost always get.

To base your next campaign strategy on the faulty analysis is risky.


29 posted on 11/13/2013 7:05:35 AM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: 1010RD

As far as I could discern, Cucinelli lost because he was so busy appealing to the base that he failed to sell his ideas to the center. The ads I saw were terrible. Frankly, I put this loss at the feet of the DC consulting class, which is RINO to the core, IOW, it was a classic RINO backstabbing, as they did to any number of TEA Party candidates. The GOPe will not suffer challenge, because their status is more important to them than are the ideas the Party supposedly exists to advance.


30 posted on 11/13/2013 7:12:46 AM PST by Carry_Okie ("Single payer" is Medicaid for all; they'll pull the sheet over your head when you're done.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

Even if (bold) we assume the exit poll numbers are correct, this does not account for the ‘unseen’ votes Democrats almost always get.


I don’t think you have to fall back on anything nefarious here.

The bottom line is the Dems made this race a priority and the RNC/RGA did not. In a close race that is enough to win. The Dems did what they frequently do. Pull a lousy candidate over the finish line and into the winners circle. Until the GOP has a similar mindset they will continue to lose many winnable contests.


31 posted on 11/13/2013 7:14:27 AM PST by lodi90
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To: JackOfVA

I’ve read the GOP was very very stingy on the funds for him.


32 posted on 11/13/2013 7:21:59 AM PST by esoxmagnum ( Some hide in bunkers when there is trouble, others run towards the trouble.)
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To: cicero2k

yes... third party = Dem win


33 posted on 11/13/2013 8:07:01 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: SomeCallMeTim
The exit polling indicated that the Libertarian vote would not have gone to Cuccinelli.
34 posted on 11/13/2013 8:16:20 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: 1010RD

The GOP was the reason, they did nothing to counter the former clintoon goon...


35 posted on 11/13/2013 8:18:28 AM PST by GraceG
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To: riverdawg

Yea... I read the same kind of crap when Perot gave Clinton the win over Bush Sr. I don’t believe it for a second.


36 posted on 11/13/2013 8:19:09 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: GraceG
The GOP was the reason, they did nothing to counter the former clintoon goon...

For those of us in Virginia, any pretense that the GOP would play ball with Conservatives has been wiped away. It WAS that bad. It will only get worse..

37 posted on 11/13/2013 8:20:23 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Carry_Okie
“As far as I could discern, Cucinelli lost because he was so busy appealing to the base that he failed to sell his ideas to the center. The ads I saw were terrible. Frankly, I put this loss at the feet of the DC consulting class, which is RINO to the core, IOW, it was a classic RINO backstabbing, as they did to any number of TEA Party candidates. The GOPe will not suffer challenge, because their status is more important to them than are the ideas the Party supposedly exists to advance.”

I agree with your first two sentences, but fail to see how they mesh with the rest of what you wrote. Virginia is still a center-right state, as it has been for 25 years, but any Republican must pick up most of the independents and moderates in the center to win a state-wide election.

Fortunately, the Virginia legislature is still mostly conservative and will be able to limit the damage that McAuliffe can do in four years.

38 posted on 11/13/2013 8:21:34 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: 1010RD

While there were many factors that came into play, fundamentally Ken lost because of Ken.


39 posted on 11/13/2013 8:22:05 AM PST by EternalVigilance (tomhoefling@gmail.com)
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To: riverdawg
Libertarians are an odd bunch. The ones I know will not vote for anyone who runs a campaign stressing conservative social values over a limited-government platform. It's a deal-breaker with them.
40 posted on 11/13/2013 8:27:17 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: riverdawg

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf

Liberal Democrats did NOT vote for Sarvis...
Moderate REPUBLICANS, did....

Strange numbers in this poll. 13% of people who claimed to be “Conservative”, voted for McCauliffe??

I think, the ONLY WAY that happens is... voter fraud.


41 posted on 11/13/2013 8:31:28 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: SomeCallMeTim

Or, bad questions from the pollsters and/or respondents who don’t define political labels very well.


42 posted on 11/13/2013 8:37:08 AM PST by EternalVigilance (tomhoefling@gmail.com)
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To: EternalVigilance
“While there were many factors that came into play, fundamentally Ken lost because of Ken.”

That's the bottom line. He was a badly flawed candidate. If you can't beat an odious creep like McAuliffe, you have other important issues besides campaign funding and the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot.

43 posted on 11/13/2013 8:37:12 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: SomeCallMeTim

“Strange numbers in this poll. 13% of people who claimed to be ‘Conservative’, voted for McCauliffe??”

I agree that’s a strange statistic.


44 posted on 11/13/2013 8:39:55 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: riverdawg

The opinions of anyone that does not live here is worthless. If you were subjected to the onslaught of unanswered negative campaigning you would know it was a one sided battle. Jesus himself would have lost to McA$$wipe under these circumstances. As bad as the GOP didn’t want it the DEMON Party REALLY WANTED THIS ONE.


45 posted on 11/13/2013 8:40:10 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: EternalVigilance

Bingo!


46 posted on 11/13/2013 8:41:55 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: GraceG

Perhaps, but where was the TEA Party money? I don’t think that tells the whole story. If the TEA Party candidates or conservatives in general want to play ball, they need to learn how. If you want the milk you must play nice with mommy.


47 posted on 11/13/2013 8:43:03 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: central_va

“he opinions of anyone that does not live here is worthless.”

I am a native Virginian, and travel to the Old Dominion six or seven times a year to visit friends and family (including our daughter) who live there. I follow Virginia politics very closely, and have an understanding of the culture, demographics, and political geography of the state. I have lived in Central Virginia, on the Peninsula, and (twice) in Northern Virginia. If you don’t value my opinions, that’s fine with me; don’t read them.


48 posted on 11/13/2013 8:45:56 AM PST by riverdawg
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To: riverdawg

You know.. if you look at these cross-tabs, the numbers make NO SENSE! Cuccinelli wins in almost all of them.. yet, he somehow LOST the overall??

Look at the support/oppose Obamacare numbers...

Look at the Important Issues numbers??

WTF is going on??


49 posted on 11/13/2013 8:52:27 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: central_va
The opinions of anyone that does not live here is worthless

I think, you'd be more accurate to say: "The opinions of anyone who does not live here are worth less".

Living in the state where and election is held greatly improves the understanding of any analyst. But, election experts (Not me) can learn much from reviewing actual results.

50 posted on 11/13/2013 8:58:26 AM PST by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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