Government Shutdown Did Not Hurt Ken Cuccinelli in Virginia 2013 Campaign

The Virginia Free Citizen ^ | November 13, 2013 | Jonathon Moseley

[Moseley]

The Republican Party’s loss of the Virginia Governor’s race has sparked extensive analysis searching for “lessons learned” while heading into the crucial upcoming 2014 Congressional elections. Conventional wisdom argues that the government shutdown drama hurt Ken Cuccinelli and his running mates, although later the flawed ObamaCare roll-out helped Virginia Republicans regain some lost ground.

Facts Do Not Support Shutdown Hurt Cuccinelli

But the facts don’t support the theory that the government shutdown and debt ceiling battle hurt Ken Cuccinelli. Virginians who voted in the November 6 elections about equally blamed both President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress, according to exit polling by CNN. . Of those who actually voted, not just answering telephone opinion polls, 48% blamed Republicans in Congress and 45% blamed Barack Obama. That’s only a 3% difference, with an undisclosed margin of error typically about 3% for this kind of poll. Moreover, CNN didn’t provide a choice for those who blame Democrats in Congress.

Yet of those who blamed Obama for the shutdown, 87% voted for Ken Cuccinelli for Governor of Virginia. Of those who blamed Congressional Republicans, 88% voted for Terry McAuliffe. In other words, the shutdown drama was a political inkblot test.

So who your candidate was – your political party – determined how you viewed the shutdown and debt ceiling drama. Those who supported the Republican blamed Obama for the shutdown. Those who supported the Democrat blamed Republicans in Congress.

But if the shutdown were to blame, Cuccinelli’s approval would have dropped sharply after the shutdown began on September 30. But that didn’t happen. Cuccinelli was already struggling in the polls for months before that. Robert Sarvis, put up as a dirty trick by an Obama donor on the Libertarian line, was drawing 10% to 11%, until Ron Paul denounced him.

[Moseley]

Then, Virginians’ views of ObamaCare would have worsened after the shutdown. Yet that didn’t happen, either. The voters on November 6 opposed ObamaCare by only 53% to 46%. That modest 7% difference is in line with opposition for years. According to Gallup , opposition to Obama Care nationally was a net 8% in August — 49% opposed to 41% approval. It was 50% opposed over 45% approving in late October. So we see no evidence that disapproval of ObamaCare suddenly rose among Virginia’s voters… at least not yet.

Instead, Ken Cuccinelli’s late rally appears to have come by winning back voters previously supporting Faux Libertarian Sarvis, rather than winning over voters who were leaning toward McAuliffe. Cuccinelli had explained that this often happens in Virginia, that a large protest vote to a third party candidate comes home to its natural party by election day. It is unlikely that voters upset about the shutdown and debt ceiling would have leaned libertarian, calling for smaller government and reduced spending. ObamaCare problems hurt Democrats, but that damage is still in their future.

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[Road Warrior ‘04]

The GOPe doesn’t have the stomach to win! Plain and simple!

[Leonine]

Here are some lessons from history: Gerald Ford, Daddy Bush (not Prescott), Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney. It is impossible for a “moderate” Republican to win the WH.

[mrsmith]

The exit poll he references:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf

Interesting stuff, to me:
40% of voters make over $100k and voted 49% for the crony indicating a large turnout of government muckety mucks (if true).

11% were ‘not worried about the economy next year’ and voted 82 to 12 for the sleezer.

Most importantly 28% were ‘non white’ and voted 11 to 1 for the bagman.

[HokieMom]

George Allen once said the only way the GOP candidates can win is when both wings of the party flap together. It’s obvious the RINO wing let the conservative wing lose by taking it’s marbles and going home. Shame. We need everyone pitching in in order to be successful in beating liberals and their dangerous policies.

[Venturer]

The GOPe dumped on him. That is what killed him.

I wouldn’t send them 10 cents.