“It is a sea change. The lifting of sanctions and the recognition of Iran’s nuclear program (peaceful or otherwise) will set off a chain of events in the region and the world. There will be other countries pursuing nuclear programs in response to Iran’s. They will pursue them now because the US appears to be the “weak horse” who will not stop Iran’s inevitable pursuit of a nuclear weapon. Containment is the new policy”
Sanctions didn’t prevent a much less developed North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. Why should we believe they will be effective in preventing Iran from attaining them? I think being able to inspect their nuclear sites will be a more effective way of keeping them from getting weapons than sanctions. Verification is the keystone of arms limitation. There can be no credible means of preventing nuclear weapons without it. Ronald Reagan himself used to quote the old Russian saying, “Trust but verify.” when speaking of the INF agreement with the Soviets in 1987.
They won't, but there is no doubt that sanctions have hurt the Iranian economy and put the regime under greater pressure. The "Green Revolution" was an indication of the vulnerability of the regime. People are unhappy. There has been a huge brain drain from Iran for over a decade. The fertility rate in Iran is 1.86, which is below replacement levels.
Why weaken the sanctions and provide Iran with $9 billion dollars by unfreezing their assets? Does anyone believe that Russia and China, parties to this agreement, would do anything to harm Iran?
I think being able to inspect their nuclear sites will be a more effective way of keeping them from getting weapons than sanctions. Verification is the keystone of arms limitation. There can be no credible means of preventing nuclear weapons without it.
We are using the same template for Iran that we used for the PRK. We had an extensive inspections regime with a supposedly strong verification protocol. Clinton and Albright negotiated this with the PRK and used aid to buy their agreement. As it turned out, the PRK negotiated in bad faith. They were secretly developing the bomb and we didn't find out about it for years, i.e., when the Bush administration took office. The PRK continues to use extortion to extract aid from the West.
How effective does anyone think an international verification system will be in a society like Iran? What kind of access will we really have? I lived in Iran for two years during the fall of the Shah and the rise of Khomeini. Anyone who trusts the mullahs and the Supreme Leader to adhere to an agreement is either insane or more cynically, believes that they can fool people with this phony agreement thus kicking down the road any real action against the Iranian regime.
The only way we will stop Iran from a nuclear program is regime change. Obama just legitimized the current regime and gave it breathing room by relaxing sanctions and by providing them more time to develop a nuclear weapon free from any threat of a military strike by the US or Israel for that matter. The real reason for this agreement, which was set in motion over a year ago, was to forestall an Israeli attack against Iran. Obama really wants a containment strategy rather than a military solution. He continues to prop up the current regime knowing full well that Iran will eventually have a nuclear weapon.