Posted on 12/07/2013 6:32:28 AM PST by Kaslin
Initial Reaction
Some of the skew in last month's job report related to the government shutdown was taken back today, as expected. The labor force stats and participation rate were exceptions, and details reveal much weakness.
Ignoring the decline and the rise in employment over the past two months, the huge discrepancy between the household survey and the establishment survey persists.
In essence, this was a bad report, with people dropping out of the labor force like mad.
Revisions
This was the fifth straight month of revisions to the establishment survey but the revisions were relatively minor.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000 to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 8,000 higher than previously reported.
Explaining the Unemployment Rate
Employment rose more than the labor force, so the unemployment rate fell as further explained in my "initial reaction" above.
October BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance
Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate
November 2013 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2013 Employment Report.
The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.
Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
Employment History Since January 2009
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Change from Previous Month by Job Type
Hours and Wages
Average weekly hours of all private employees rose 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees rose 0.1 to 33.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory private workers rose $0.03 to $20.28. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.03 to $20.09.
Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.
For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?
BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box
The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.
The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.
The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.
Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.
Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013
Birth-Death Notes
Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.
For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.
Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment
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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 7.0%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 13.2%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Labor Force Factors
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%.
Grossly Distorted Statistics
Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.
Digging beneath the surface, the snap-back from the government shutdown was nowhere near as strong as it should have been in the household survey. More on the the discrepancy between the two reports shortly.
If the unemployment numbers are to be believed, why are the rats pushing to continue unemployment compensation?
Liars figure to make the figures lie.
Tag Line Repair
I can explain the jobs report in one word.
Lies.
Hiring hundreds of thousands of people for the holidays is a nice convenient way to pump up the numbers. Let’s see what happens to these numbers in January when all of these people are laid off. We all know the numbers are being “fixed” for political reasons but the real economic disaster is waiting to engulf us all.
In June 2013 I was laid off of a full time job with a decent salary, benefits, 40 hours a week and overtime. I was eligible for unemployment but instead I took a minimum wage job with no benefits and only 20 hours a week. As soon as I found out that there was essentially zero chance of ever becoming full time at this place I quit to concentrate on looking for something better. The state said I was no longer eligible to collect because I quit my job. So they treated a crappy part time job with no benefits, low hours and no chance of advancement as if it was a full time job. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that it was also how they reported it to the feds and to pad their own employment statistics. I once had to go to the unemployment office to bring in some paperwork and I mentioned to the examiner that all I could find was part time work. She replied that it was all anyone could find. So I know from experience that they are lying and exaggerating on these employment reports. I would also advise anyone who does lose their job that it is better to sit home and collect a check while trying to find full time work than it is to be motivated and take part time work because if you do you will be punished for it. The government prefers dependence over ambition.
UNDERemployment is the problem. If you work ONE hour during the entire reference week you are co sidered ‘employed.’
It is indeed
Well, it's finally been reported that the jobless figures reported leading up to the election were fabricated as part of the 0bama regime propaganda in order to help him. Now even conservative news sources seem to have very short memories. Why would ANYONE put ANY credence in anything they say?
Well, it's finally been reported that the jobless figures reported leading up to the election were fabricated as part of the 0bama regime propaganda in order to help him. Now even conservative news sources seem to have very short memories. Why would ANYONE put ANY credence in anything they say?
I suspect that the deceitful weasels who compile labor statistics would count this as 3 people working.
.
“So I know from experience that they are lying and exaggerating on these employment reports. I would also advise anyone who does lose their job that it is better to sit home and collect a check while trying to find full time work than it is to be motivated and take part time work because if you do you will be punished for it. The government prefers dependence over ambition.”
The numbers are absolutely BS, thrown out there to prevent “Occupy Wall Street” from becoming “Occupy Washington DC” (populated by patriots rather than unemployed yuppies alone). I think neither party has an answer for a situation in which American workers simply have no role in a world economy. I remember when the economic collapse was accelerated to get Obama elected, and at the time they coined the term “fun-employment” (whereby unemployed workers were kicking back and enjoying a short break before heading back to work). It was nonsense because many of those jobs were never coming back; people who waited out their unemployment checks were forced into a horrible job market when the payments stopped.
I can’t believe an incumbent for president will ever get elected again (unless the masters of the lie push for them as strongly as they did for Obama).
“In essence, this was a bad report, with people dropping out of the labor force like mad.”
This is NOT a bad report!!! It is an all out falsehood, also known a a lie...
“I would also advise anyone who does lose their job that it is better to sit home and collect a check while trying to find full time work than it is to be motivated and take part time work because if you do you will be punished for it.”
It is certainly less risky. In nay case, anyone becoming unemployed should review their states’ unemployment rules. That includes never quitting a job without understanding that quitting is considered voluntary unemployment.
What they are working for is you working fulltime for them .... for free.
Think about it.
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