The key is 2014 primaries and then the general. I believe the numbers are 19 Democrat
and 14 GOP incumbents on the line. The question becomes which of the races are
potential for a pick up or loss.
Correction to my numbers above. There are 33 seats up this time as two seats are
and two are up for special elections (both from class 3). So it is 21 Dems and 14 GOP.
There are eight democrat freshman, five retirements and two weak southerners.
I think we have to potential to pick up MT, SD, WV, CO, NH, LA, AR, NC, IA, AK and perhaps a few more.
The only weak republicans are in ME and KY. If Collins loses, there will be little difference since she’s a democrat. If McConnell’s the nominee, he’ll likely lose so we need to nominate Bevin so we keep that seat.
And we can replace Graham, Cochran, Cornyn, Alexander and Roberts too.