You make some good points….but I would quibble with you around the margins on a few things.
While a passed amnesty bill would tamp down some turn out, out in the world outside of FR and so on, the concern about Obama Care is probably 10X what it is about amnesty….and the reality of Obama Care is now 1000X what it was in 2010.
As for the Ryan Murray bill, I have no disagreement with yout at all….but that will not be an issue in 2014 to speak of.
You really can't compare 2010 with 2014. I participated in the huge Tea Party Sept 12, 2009 March on Washington. The issue was not just Obamacare, but Big Government writ large. The historic 2010 midterms that allowed the GOP to regain control of the House have been a disappointment. The GOPe has done little to slow down the growth of government and the size of the debt. And now the GOPe is demonizing the Tea Party along with the Dems.
This will not bode well for 2014. Why support GOP control over Congress when the GOP has proven to be so feckless with its control over the House? The GOPe is far more comfortable in kicking the can down the road and avoiding confrontation.
Where has the GOP been when it comes to allowing the President to violate the Constitution whether it is changing the law on Obamacare or using Executive orders to implement a "backdoor amnesty" for the Dreamers or allowing the EPA to target the coal industry? These are impeachable offenses, but the GOP would rather ignore them or try to pass legislation after the fact to rubber stamp what Obama has done. Cantor's impending GOP version of the Dream Act is one such example as well as the GOP wanting to pass legislation to fix Obamacare.
As for the Ryan Murray bill, I have no disagreement with yout at all….but that will not be an issue in 2014 to speak of.
It will be used by the Dems to divide the GOP. The more that comes out about what is in the bill will make it more of an issue, especially for those Reps that voted for it. The cutting of the COLA increases for certain veteran pensions will be an issue even though both parties now favor a fix, which will be probably be done. It shows how easy it is to change these promised cuts down the road. Ryan owns it along with the rest of the GOP House leadership. I guess you have to pass the bill before you find out what is in it.
The Dem strategy for 2014 will be to accentuate the positive on Obamacare pointing out its benefits, admit that it has flaws that need to be fixed just like other major programs that were rolled out like SS, Medicare, and the Prescription Drug Program, and to blame Reps for not being responsible partners to implement the fixes. They will remind the public that Obamacare will not be repealed as long as Obama is in the WH. And they will say that the Reps are tilting at windmills with their repeal rhetoric. It will be mend it, don't end it.
The longer Obamacare is in place, the deeper the roots will be in the economy and the more difficult it will be to replace it. The Dems will move ahead willing to take short term political losses with the expectation that in the long term, Obamacare will make their vision of Big Government and the expanded welfare state a permanent reality.
Many of us here said that the reelection of Obama in 2012 would ensure that Obamacare would be fully implemented and impossible to reverse and that as Obama stated himself, would lead to the single payer system. That is where we headed and that will be the real fix.