That’s a good point. There are gray areas here which might affect the numbers. However, when you see sensational claims like “10 times more likely” you still have to balance that with how many at least claim this was not a problem.
For example, I believe homosexuals should not go on camping trips with boy/girl scouts because of the potential for pedophilia but we cannot ignore that a) straights may also be pedophiles and b) gays may not be inclined to be pedophiles. By banning gays, you *improve* the odds that the scouts won’t be molested but you aren’t eliminating the danger.
You then have to ask yourself what is considered an acceptable risk. If 98% of straights wouldn’t molest scouts and 90% of gays wouldn’t, does it make a policy of banning gay scoutmasters justifiable? Does it make any more sense than banning blacks from shopping malls because a larger percent of them shoplift?