I recall a similar prediction by the associate of presidential science advisor John Holdren, Amory Lovins, who was invited by Holdren to be “University Professor” at Berkeley some time during the late 1970s. Lovins was, as have been most of Marxist Holdren’s associates, as poor a soothsayer as Holdren’s mentor and co-author, Paul Ehrlich, whose “Population Bomb” is a laughable testimonial to the arrogance and scientific irrelevance of Stanford and Berkeley resource prognosticators. They aren’t fools, but are Marxists who believe the earth is plagued by too many people whose consumption of resources may reduce the lifestyles of the Theresa Kerry professor (Heinz), Holdren, now at Harvard, or Dr. Doom Ehrlich, emeritus at Stanford.
The average solar energy flux during days in North America uncluttered by fog, smog, rain, or snow is probably below 500 watts/square meter. Let’s assume a net conversion efficiency of 10%, which is generous considering storage losses. 50 watts for about six hours each day, or 12 Watts average over 24 hours means that about 500 square meters of collector surface must be dedicated to each electric automobile, assuming that it must carry energy during the 16 hours the sun is not providing input. Just to power the 200,000 cars crossing the bridge near my home requires roughly 100 million square meters of collector surface, or a closely spaced field of tracking collectors 10,000 meters, or about 6 miles on each side.
Solar automobiles are utopian nonsense. With improvements in battery technology, probably including fuel cells, there will certainly be more electric cars on the road. The safest and most environmentally benign source of electricity for their engines comes from nuclear powered generators, with no contribution to the usual greenhouse gases, foolish as that requirement is as understood by most. Muclear power generation does release steam into the atmosphere, and water vapor absorbs more solar energy than any other gas, but our justices, governmental agencies, and tax dependent universities are helping with wealth redistribution by designating taxable entities for subjects lacking the scientific or engineering acumen to question the reasoning of our royal class. Solar flux density will certainly change over millions or billions of years, but for our practical purposes, it’s use for generating electricity in quantity a pipedream. If the solar flux increases we are unlikely to need automobiles because we will have been cooked long before meaningful flux increases. For heating swimming pools and preheating bathing water in warm climates solar heating is certainly useful, but its primary application these days is to justify stealing money from taxpayers to benefit investment bankers - Solyndra is just one of hundreds of examples.
Thanks for running the numbers. People don't seem to understand that cars are parked at work during the day in limited areas, not at home.