The market definitely seems bubbly at this time. the whole economy is being run on bullshiite though and washington D.C. has a never ending supply of it so I have given up trying to guess what's going to happen next. I think it will behave exactly as they want it to and we will all continue believing that that isn't the case at all.
I do think that the gold market is heavily manipulated as well and by people who don't want to see gold competing with the stock market or their fiat currencies so I am somewhat skeptical of an iminent gold bull market even though it seems logical. I think I like cash right now.
I would expect another financial crisis of some kind right around election time however.
I made my first ever purchases in gold mining stocks in the past few weeks. The stocks are down 70% and are so out of favor that my contrarian nature was curious. Then I looked at alternatives in the stock market and it was a no brainer for me.
I still have most of my money in the market, but have moved a good portion to gold mining stocks and will do so further if the stock market becomes even more overvalued or the gold miners fall more.
Those in DC and the Fed can only mask inflation for so long. And not too long from now, we will have a big round number coming down the road at us: $20 Trillion. So even if we do not have some EM collapse, this number will once again shine the spotlight on our monetary irresponsibility.
If you had told me 5 or 10 years ago, I would ever be investing in miners, I would have called you crazy. But the valuations of this sector are simply so compelling, and at this point in history, it is comforting to hold these stocks while the govt is printing money at full speed.
Worst case scenario is I hold these stocks for a 3% divvy or they actually go down. However, I do not see that being the case over time (3-5 years), as sectors which are so out of favor typically outperform going forward. That’s what makes investing fun.