Won’t be a bust cycle, just an adjustment. At least this go around. Don’t think it will slow down here for at least two or three years and no true bust unless there is some really off the wall world wide economic crisis and demand goes thru the basement.
Been thru a lot of them since the mid 50’s and I think this time it really is different. OPEC? Wish I knew what they had planned as they are less and less relevant here.
So have I been through a bunch of busts. The thing that could make this one different is the relentless and steep decline of shale. Offsetting that is the ubiquitous worldwide distribution of shale. If we can do it so can others. The barriers to entry are not that high. Shale fracs are mostly just glorified slick water treatments. What shell and Exxon are fixing to do in Siberia will be game changing.
The good news is I’ll have relatively inexpensive oil for my toys until I don’t need it and the hydrocarbon era will go on a bit longer still.