Replies

RE: “Really, losing House seats in GA and TX? Which districts, pray tell, do you think the RATs will pick up?”

I've written extensively on this subject in previous months.

Please note I have made my 2014 predictions based on the theory that Democrats will be very successful at turning out their core constituency of non-whites and poor white women.

By the way, the Democrats began to implement their 2014 turn out strategy in Texas and Georgia just weeks after the 2012 election.

I have also made my prediction on the fact that the GOP leadership will continue to publicly assault and demoralize Conservative voters, which will suppress Conservative turn out in 2014 even more than it was suppressed in 2012.

In Georgia, 31% of the population is Black.

In 2012, even with a Black presidential candidate, just 13% of voters were Black.

That will change in 2014, no matter what you think you know about voting in Georgia.

The most vulnerable candidate I see is Jack Kingston in House District 1.

Kingston's District covers 17 counties.

In 16 of those counties, Kingston's majority exceeded the total number of white voters.

That means HUGE numbers of Black voters did not go to the polls in those counties.

That will not happen in 2014.

In Chatham County, the largest county in Kingston's district, 50% of the residents are non-white.

Kingston will not win Chatham if Blacks turn out.

If poor white women turn out, Kingston will lose Chatham by a substantial margin.

Glynn County is the second largest county in that District.

36% of residents are non-white, and many whites are lower middle class.

I predict Kingston will lose Glynn County, too.

RE: “Texas”

I will have to refresh my memory on county names and exact numbers.

But one fact definitely stands out:

40% of Texans are Hispanic.

In 2012, just 10% of voters were Hispanic.

Texas Hispanics are NOT Conservatives.

They vote 70% for the Democrat Party.

**Full Disclosure - the 40% number is misleading - it includes Green Cards and Illegals.

I will get back to you on my 2 seat loss in Texas.

And I still predict that Sam Nunn’s daughter will win.