As I point out again and again, in each post, my prediction is based on Democrats successfully turning out their base voters.
Democrats began working on turn out in Georgia and Texas a few weeks after the 2012 election.
If they fail, you are right.
If they succeed, I am right.
Which seats in Texas?
Randy Weber - District 14
If Blacks and Hispanics turn out in Brazoria and Jefferson County, Weber is toast.
He won just 53% of the vote in 2012.
Roger Williams - District 25
His Democratic opponent barely got 50% in Travis County, which is ludicrous, unless his District his gerrymandered through every white neighborhood in the county.
Blake Farenthold - District 27
Turn out in Nueces County - which is 62% Hispanic - was dramatically lower than the state average.
RE: “Nunn’s daughter is unlikely to seriously compete for the Senate seat.”
In a state wide poll about 10 days ago, Nunn led all four of the likely GOP candidates by small margins.
Can she lose?
Of course.
But she is a serious candidate.
Democrats “work on turnout” EVERYWHERE, ALL THE TIME. They will not suddenly produce untold waves of Mexican voters to create the huge swings necessary to elect NOBODY DEMOCRATS in those Texas districts especially in an election where they are set to do badly because OBAMA IS UNPOPULAR, that’s fanciful nonsense. If they were capable of such sorcery they would have done it by now, in every state. I shudder to think what kind of masochist you must be to twist your mind into believing this.
Rat turnout will be LESS than in was in 2012. This is CERTAIN even if through some herculean effort they get better turnout than they usually do in a midterm of a rat President, it will still be less than in Obama’s POTUS reelection which featured many people who normally don’t vote. According to all history unless Obama’s approval shoots up to close to 60% it is certain the democrats will suffer a net loss of House seats. It’s laughable to pretend Republicans are on the defensive in their own seats.
In 2012 Weber faced inexplicably popular rat ex-Rep. Nick Lampson in an open seat (maybe Ron Paul fatigue was a factor in that race? Don’t know). In 2014 he is an incumbent and will face one of 3 NOBODIES with limited resources. This race is not even on the rats radar screen. All election prediction people rate all of those Texas races you mention that pit incumbent Republicans in districts that gave Mitt Romney at least 57% against cash-strapped democrats with no name recognition as safe Republican. Even in the democrats wet dream fantasies of taking back the House in 2014 those seats you mentioned are NOT on their target list of seats they think they can win.
In 2000 I read rat strategists proclaim Texas would be a swing state by 2008, whoops. I’ll believe it when I see it. It sure as hell ain’t happening in Obama’s 6th year midterm with a feminazi nightmare heading up their statewide ticket.
So basically all this boils down to your unsubstantiated claims that democrats have mastered the art of turnout voodoo that is sure to work versus all other evidence. If you don’t mind I’m gonna go with “all other evidence”.
I agree Nunn’s dykey looking daughter is a “serious candidate” but with the Senate at stake she is unlikely to win no matter what her daddy’s famous name is doing for right now in the polls. The polls you mention BTW are from PPP, a democrat firm. PPP wants people to donate money to Nunn which they are less likely to do if they show her down by 10 points like she probably actually is.
Wait, so a 62% Hispanic county in TX had a much lower percentage of the population that voted in 2012 that did the state as a whole? Zoot alors! You’ve really discovered something there. *Of course* a far lower percentage of residents voted: in a 62% Hispanic district in TX, a far lower percentage of the population will be 18+ or U.S. citizens. But let’s say that the distopian future you predict occurs in 2014, and a “large brown horde” shows up to vote. You’re talking about an election between (i) a Republican incumbent who has raised over $500,000 and who connects enough with Hispanic voters that in 2010, back when the district was over 70% Hispanic, defeated a Hispanic Democrat incumbent who had served for two decades, and (ii) some random, unknown Anglo Democrat named Wesley who has raised $15,000 and will not get any support from state or national Democrats because they’re fighting for survival in Dem-held districts, all in a congressional district that gave Romney 60.5% in 2012. But go ahead and continue predicting that the world will end tomorrow, since you’ll be right someday and you’ll be able to point proudly to your 1 correct, 30,000 incorrect prediction record.
Cassandra was given the gift of prophecy by the gods; you seem to have been given the gift of willful misinterpretation of data in an attempt to argue that all is lost. So, no, you’re no Cassandra.