It just seems that, when it comes to the weekly report on new jobless claims, 9 times out of 10, the report was ‘unexpected’, ‘weaker than expected’, etc.
My theory is that the profession of being an ‘economist’ is infested with people who are ‘bullish’ on the economy....primarily because they themselves start investing in the stock market at a very young age, and their personal financial planning is tied to it. So, they are almost always ‘confident’, and seeing/hoping for the best.
As a relative layman, its gets a little tiring to see professional ‘economists’ setting expectations too high. I swear, for the last 5 years, every November we hear about what a ‘great Christmas season’ it will be...I chuckle, and predict what excuses will be used in January, when the results are in.
Another thing I have noticed. Every economics class I ever took was taught as part of the Political Science department. These guys aren’t necessarily mathematicians, and they seem to trend towards being quite liberal. And, quite frankly, it shows - the ‘expectations’ seem to be higher when the president has a ‘D’ by his name.
All of your points are false.