Cooling Kills: Governments Must Shift to Cold Preparation

Pajamas Media ^ | 02/16/2014 | TOM HARRIS AND DR. MADHAV KHANDEKAR

[SeekAndFind]

In the past few years we have seen a dramatic demonstration of the deadly effects of prolonged cold weather. From Chicago to China, Egypt to Argentina, India to the Antarctic, new low temperature and snowfall records have been set.

This has led to severe hardship for millions — and increased death rates.

The first half of this year’s Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter season was especially brutal. December 2013 and January 2014 were the third-coldest Decembers and Januaries in the past 30 years averaged over the contiguous 48 United States, with temperatures plummeting to −10°C in Atlanta and −26°C in Chicago. Residents of North East India struggled with unusually severe snow and −10°C temperatures without home heating. Snow and extreme cold also impacted the Kashmir Valley in India, where many elderly and very young people died of hypothermia. At the time of this writing, most of India is two to five degrees C colder than usual, a serious problem when 95% of all Indian homes lack central heating.

In mid-December, Cairo experienced its first snowfall in over a century ^[1], and Jerusalem was hit by a snowstorm called the “fiercest in 20 years.” On December 17, 59% of the contiguous United States was snow-covered, a level the National Weather Service claims has not been seen on that date in at least a decade.

Contrary to the claims of groups such as Ecology Ottawa — which last week held an event ^[2] titled “the Future of Snow and Skiing in a Warming World” — winter snow cover in the NH has gradually increased since 1967 ^[3].

Not just during this winter season has weather been unusually cold. March 2013 was the coldest month for Berlin in 100 years. In the same month, low temperature records were set in the United Kingdom, and UK Office for National Statistics ^[4] reported: “An estimated 31,100 excess winter deaths occurred in England and Wales in 2012/13 — a 29% increase compared with the previous winter.”

All-time low temperature records were also set in Antarctica in 2013. As demonstrated by the global warming research mission aboard the MV Akademik Schokalskiy — the Russian ship stuck in Antarctic ice for two weeks starting on Christmas Day, 2013 — southern sea ice is now more extensive than at any time in the modern-day record.

At the opposite pole, summer sea ice increased by almost 2.4 million square kilometers during 2013 over 2012, the largest year-to-year increase since satellite records began.

The 2011/12 winter was especially severe in Eastern Europe, where temperatures plunged below −40°C and hundreds of people died.

Overall, the NH has witnessed four severe winters since 2000: 2002/03, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2009/10. Most operational forecasters agree that much of this is unprecedented in recent history.

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this shouldn’t be happening. The IPCC asserted ^[5] in their Fourth Assessment Report (2007) that, as an impact of the carbon dioxide (CO₂)-induced global warming that activists say is still going on:

There is likely to be a decline in the frequency of cold air outbreaks (i.e., periods of extreme cold lasting from several days to over a week) in NH winter in most areas.

Always looking for environmental phenomena to blame on human activities, the White House now says the opposite of the IPCC: man-made global warming caused this winter’s extreme cold. IPCC forecasts indicate that it should have warmed 0.3°C in the past fifteen years. Instead, global warming stopped 17 years ago. Indeed, 134 climate experts from 18 countries wrote in their as-yet-unanswered November 24, 2012 open letter ^[6] to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon:

Global warming that has not occurred cannot have caused the extreme weather of the past few years.

Yet, in his January 8 online video ^[7], Dr. John Holdren — President Obama’s Science and Technology advisor — explained that as a consequence of recent global warming that he maintains is occurring, the Arctic is warming roughly twice as fast as the mid-latitudes. This means that the temperature difference between the Arctic and the contiguous U.S is shrinking, thereby weakening the circumpolar vortex, a swirling mass of cold air that hovers over the Arctic. The result is that the boundaries of the vortex become wavier, allowing increased excursions of cold Arctic air into more southerly regions.

Holdren acknowledged that “there will be continuing debate about exactly what is happening,” but concluded:

I believe the odds are that we can expect, as a result of global warming, to see more of this pattern of extreme cold in the mid-latitudes.

A quick look at meteorological history shows that Holdren’s leap in faith is unfounded. A weather phenomenon similar to what happened this winter also occurred during the 1962/1963 winter, when global cooling was underway. Miami experienced −12°C in December 1962, and most of Europe was exceptionally cold, with the average daily temperatures 4°C lower than usual at many weather stations.

Similarly, towards the end of the global cooling period that lasted from 1945 to the mid-‘70s, Time wrote (June 24, 1974):

Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds — the so-called circumpolar vortex — that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world.

Meteorology textbooks show that such cold weather outbreaks happen often due to distortions in the boundaries of the polar vortex — and have nothing to do with global warming, or cooling, however caused.

Holdren was right to assert that “no single weather episode can either prove or disprove global climate change.” So we will have to wait a few more years to see if the recent cooling will continue or not. However, 17 years with no global warming and recent very cold winters is a troubling trend, which if it continues will result in serious problems for humanity.

This will be especially true if the current obsession with global warming continues, leaving the public unprepared for cold weather events.

Of particularl concern are the warnings from solar scientists that over the next three decades, we are headed toward significant global cooling as the sun weakens into a grand minimum. The last time the sun was as weak as solar experts predict will occur starting after 2030, the Earth was in a particularly cold phase of the Little Ice Age that lasted from about 1350-1850, a period when there was great misery around the world.

Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov of Russia’s Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg warns ^[8]:

After the maximum of solar Cycle 24, from approximately 2014, we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055 plus or minus 11 years.

History shows that such cold times are far more dangerous than warm periods. That is why geologists call past warm epochs “optimums,” and cold times “dark ages.”

While not accepting that a 2°C rise in temperature is likely, the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change ^[9] (NIPCC) explains:

Multiple lines of evidence suggest a 2°C rise in temperature would not be harmful to the biosphere. The period termed the Holocene Climatic Optimum (c. 8,000 ybp) was 2–3°C warmer than today (Alley, 2000), and the planet attained similar temperatures for several million years during the Miocene and Pliocene (Zachos et al., 2001). Biodiversity is encouraged by warmer rather than colder temperatures (Idso and Idso, 2009), and higher temperatures and elevated CO2 greatly stimulate the growth of most plants (Idso and Idso, 2011).

The climate change debate should move away from unsubstantiated warming fears and focus instead on determining if the extreme cold of recent years is a precursor to significant global cooling. If it is, then reliable and inexpensive energy sources such as coal-fired electricity generation will become crucially important for our survival. The last thing we should be doing is closing down these stations in the questionable belief that we are helping to prevent global warming, a phenomenon that has already stopped all on its own.

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Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com

URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/cooling-kills-governments-must-shift-to-cold-preparation/

URLs in this post:

[1] Cairo experienced its first snowfall in over a century: http://2013hoaxblog.s3.amazonaws.com/sphinx02.jpg

[2] last week held an event: http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/60998

[3] has gradually increased since 1967: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/images/nhland_season1.png

[4] UK Office for National Statistics: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2012-13--provisional--and-2011-12--final-/stb-ewm-12-13.html

[5] asserted: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-10-1.html

[6] November 24, 2012 open letter: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/11/29/open-climate-letter-to-un-secretary-general-current-scientific-knowledge-does-not-substantiate-ban-ki-moon-assertions-on-weather-and-climate-say-125-scientists/

[7] January 8 online video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eDTzV6a9F4#t=15

[8] warns: http://www.thegwpf.org/russian-astrophysicist-predicts-global-cooling/

[9] Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change: http://www.nipccreport.com/

[HereInTheHeartland]

Climate change covers all of it!

[cripplecreek]

I can handle the cold if I don’t have to pay $4.20 for propane.

[Paine in the Neck]

Hot or cold, leave the government out of it. They only make things worse.

[Nifster]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Lordy save us from the ‘smart’ folks. Giving us breath taking information about the coldest weather in 30 years. Oh my. Oh my.

Read what the winter was like during Valley Forge when modern luxuries were not available.

‘Climate science’ is being used by the leftists to further their agenda.

[palmer]

Meteorology textbooks show that such cold weather outbreaks happen often due to distortions in the boundaries of the polar vortex — and have nothing to do with global warming, or cooling, however caused.

True and there is causation in the other direction. One way the earth as a whole cools is by transporting heat to the poles, especially in the polar winter. The reason is that more heat can be radiated to space on average if that pole isn't as cold. Therefore the waviness in the jet helps lead to global cooling. The sun may be involved since it is has been generally shown that low solar activity leads to more jet waviness.

One clarification: the polar vortex is in the stratosphere and is only partly related to the polar jet at the tropopause. When the polar jet is strong and stable it helps pump up the polar vortex. Then when the stratosphere suddenly warms the vortex is elongated or splits in two, sometimes three pieces. The causes of such warmings are somewhat of a mystery, although amplified waves in the polar jet do play a role. Solar magnetic activity can play a role as well, although not as a primary driving force. The main thing to remember is that the polar jet needs to be stable, not wavy to pump up the polar vortex.

One more quick point: the global warming climate models generally predict a less wavy jet over the long run, so people who say the opposite are basically ignorant.

[Nifster]

“To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”

That paragraph is from Newswek Magazine April 1975

[cripplecreek]

One way the earth as a whole cools is by transporting heat to the poles

Hot to cold is the natural state of the universe

[central_va]

I can handle the cold if I don’t have to pay $4.20 for propane.

Houses down here aren't built for Michigan temps so we use as much propane in VA as in MI. I paid $3.99/gal two weeks ago BECAUSE I RAN OUT, I started in NOV with 840 gallons ( $2.09/gal ) and to repeat I RAN OUT. Usually 840 gals (max allowed in a 1000 gal tank ) lasts almost all year for my house. GloBULL warming my a$$.

[cripplecreek]

I’m buying a couple of 100lb cylinders so I can trade them through a farmer who gets the farm use tax break.

I’m having a half tank delivered tomorrow and I’ll keep it but I’m going to run my water heater and stove off the cylinders. I’m also going to start using my small woodstove after installing it this spring.

[central_va]

Last couple of years I have been real lazy but in fact I have two well maintained chain saws and a new wood slitter that I have never used. I plan on using them all spring and summer. The enviro-kooks want play “gloBULL” warming? Well some trees are going to die....

[spokeshave]

Not to worry...King Canute Obama is on this like a lazer....

"This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow,and our planet began to heal.

Welcome King Barack "Canute" Obama the Great.....

...Obama issues an Executive Order to the Sun...

....to increase it's magnetic field....

and make a good crop of sunspots before elections in 2016....

(PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades.

The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age....and lasted 400 years.

Good luck surviving with no electricity and GE modified seeds.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news203746768.html#jCp

[goodnesswins]

Sheesh...now the global cooling will be something to freak bureaucrats out...IT IS CALLED WEATHER....The COLUMBIA RIVER between Oregon and Washington used to freeze. I may live to see it happen again!!

[backwoods-engineer]

They won't prepare. They'll still be screaming, "CARBON FOOTPRINT" when there are footprints in the snow in July in the central US. They'll still be screaming, "GLOBAL WARMING" when the food crops fail because it's not warm enough for them to mature.

We're heading for a civilization-level FAILURE.

[Nifster]

precisely

[ClearCase_guy]

"What's new?"
"I don't know, but I think we need government to fix it."

"Is the world warming up?"
"I don't know, but I think we need government to fix it."

Is the world cooling down?"
"I don't know, but I think we need government to fix it."

Hey, I have an idea -- why don't we just tell the government to back off?

[spokeshave]

Update here:

http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/20130911_OurCoolingClimateCapitolHill16thSeptember2013.pd

[central_va]

In the 1960’s the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River used to freeze over, sometimes completely. Maybe that will start happening again.

[spokeshave]

And just to put it in context...Norway is not known as a major wheat producer.....

Norway’s wheat production impacted by Climate Change Posted on October 5, 2013 by Guest Blogger

Guest essay by David Archibald

A correspondent in Oslo writes:

“The official view in Norway is in contrast to what the people experience because of cooling weather: Late spring gives flooding and avalanches when late snow-melting in the mountains. Water pipes freeze because of early and deep frost in the winter. Insect populations down 40% in 5 years because of cool and wet summers. This of cause is bad for pollination of fruit and berries. The grain harvest in Norway this summer is down 18% from average the last 5 years, despite increase in area and better seeds. But officially it is getting warmer.”

Some of those observations are anecdotal but some facts can be checked – Norwegian wheat production for example. The following figure shows Norwegian wheat production from 1960. Wheat production is off 48% from its peak:

More here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/norways-wheat-production-impacted-by-climate-change/

[Little Bill]

I bought a pellet stove in 2008 when propane prices started going crazy. I costs me the equivalent of a tank of propane to heat my house all winter plus the 130 gallons for cooking and hot water. About $1100 and it has been damned cold in East Central NH.