Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Australia’s housing bubble ready to burst, US investment guru claims
The Guardian (UK) ^ | 13 February 2014 | Martin Farrer

Posted on 02/16/2014 5:52:26 PM PST by Lorianne

House prices set to plummet by up to 50% as ‘demographic crisis’ and falling Chinese demand looms ___ If you are one of the many thousands of Australians at risk of being priced out of the property market, you had better wish that Harry Dent has got his sums right.

Dent, an American investment guru who uses demographics to forecast economic cycles, thinks the soaring housing market is ready to burst any day now, perhaps reducing values by as much as 50% in some places.

Dent, who was in Sydney this week to promote his book The Demographic Cliff, has a formidable record. He claims credit for predicting Japan’s deflationary decade and the US boom and bust of the past 20 years, and has now turned his numbers on Australia.

With housing valued at 10 times average incomes – the same level as California’s just before the subprime crash – Dent thinks Australia is heading for a fall which will be sparked by a sharp reversal of the current global economic recovery.

“I see a decline in the 30-50% range across Australia, although it may vary from city to city,” he says.

“The rule with bubbles is that they always go back to where the bubble started. So the US housing bubble started to grow in 2000 and now house prices have fallen back to that point – a 55% fall.”

(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Business/Economy
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 02/16/2014 5:52:26 PM PST by Lorianne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Lorianne
Property here in California is ALWAYS a good investment. But, one must learn just how far one's dollars can be stretched. GREED will always do one in. SO easy NOT to be greedy.

There are PLENTY of Aussies who knew what was going on in their housing market and weren't burned. The greedy fools who lost everything PROBABLY got what they asked for.

Most of them, I KNOW, rightly distrusted the Chinese. The aforementioned Chinese believe in only, ONLY, two things: luck and money. I know the Chinese. It's a sad, but true commentary on their culture.

2 posted on 02/16/2014 6:00:12 PM PST by cloudmountain
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cloudmountain

SO WHAT’S IN IT FOR US? A PLACE TO ESCAPE?


3 posted on 02/16/2014 6:18:28 PM PST by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: cloudmountain

Our housing problems are going to face another big hurdle. Just wait for the boomers to start checking out or downsizing.


4 posted on 02/16/2014 6:34:38 PM PST by umgud (2A can't survive dem majorities)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: DIRTYSECRET

Who would want to escape to a place where no one is allowed
to own a gun?


5 posted on 02/16/2014 6:58:54 PM PST by Arlis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: umgud

This is why both parties want immigration...it will bail the banks out from holding a bunch of worthless baby boomer homes 10 years from now if they can offer “tax payer backed” loans to our new American Citizens to get them on the debt train.


6 posted on 02/16/2014 7:54:12 PM PST by willyd (I for one welcome our NSA overlords)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: umgud
Our housing problems are going to face another big hurdle. Just wait for the boomers to start checking out or downsizing.

I'm a boomer with no hurdle.
Boomers like me lose the ones we love: my father, sister, husband and mother, in that order. Now I have my parent's house, all that my SISTER and I would have had to split and even more from my dear sweet husband.
I expected my parents to die before me. I have a house and money but I would rather (a zillion times over) still have a sister and husband.

Many boomers have similar situations. The housing issues do take care of themselves but not always in a happy way.

7 posted on 02/16/2014 9:05:35 PM PST by cloudmountain
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: DIRTYSECRET
SO WHAT’S IN IT FOR US? A PLACE TO ESCAPE?

There's NOTHING in it for you. Do you NEED there to be something in it for you?

You sound like FREDO from the Godfather. WHAT'S IN IT FOR ME?! GREAT movie, wasn't it?

8 posted on 02/16/2014 9:12:04 PM PST by cloudmountain
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Arlis
Who would want to escape to a place where no one is allowed to own a gun?

Not again. I really would love to understand why this myth is so widespread in America.

There are, literally, millions of firearms held legally in private hands in Australia. As long as you do not have a recent or serious criminal record, you can own guns - and quite a lot of people do.

We have more controls than some parts of the US do, certainly - you must be licenced and all guns must be registered, and owning a handgun or more powerful longarms requires more than a basic licence - but if you are a law abiding citizen or permanent resident, you can do it easily enough. It's a lot easier to get a gun licence than a drivers licence.

9 posted on 02/20/2014 1:59:56 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: naturalman1975

This is a shocking revelation.

We’ve seen so many movies of the confiscation and destruction of “all the guns” in Australia it’s hard to believe what you are saying.

Even recently a huge story about a family with a huge gun collection way out in nowhere where the Aussie gov. found them, took their collection - even of many harmless ancient non-working guns - and they are facing major jail time.

So you are an Aussie? Mate?


10 posted on 02/20/2014 5:39:52 PM PST by Arlis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Arlis
We’ve seen so many movies of the confiscation and destruction of “all the guns” in Australia it’s hard to believe what you are saying.

Well, it happens to be true.

What you may have seen is a film that shows a large number of firearms being destroyed in the late 1990s. The film is real - about 600,000 guns were destroyed. But the devil is in the details.

Following the Port Arthur Massacre of 1996, there were some changes to Australian gun laws - in simple terms there was an effort made to standardise them across the country, rather than every state having very different laws. And there were some additional restrictions.

At the same time, the government funded a voluntary buyback - where they would pay fair market value for any firearm handed in, tax free, no questions asked. Because Australia had restrictive laws on selling secondhand firearms - you had to be able to background check somebody in order to sell to them, and most people didn't have the means to do that - quite a lot of people had a lot of surplus firearms sitting around doing nothing. Suddenly they could get ready cash for those easily - so a lot of people did. And a lot of them actually used the money to buy more modern firearms. Most of the weapons bought up and destroyed in the buyback were still fully legal - and that's what is seen in the big piles of weapons.

Even recently a huge story about a family with a huge gun collection way out in nowhere where the Aussie gov. found them, took their collection - even of many harmless ancient non-working guns - and they are facing major jail time.

I don't know the story, but if they were 'way out in nowhere', there's a good chance they hadn't bothered to get the right licence, and the weapons weren't registered - and both of those things will get you into a lot of trouble. But if you are licenced, and you register your weapons, it's a different matter.

These are my two main firearms (or rather photos of the same types):

I own both completely legally. The handgun requires me to have a Category H licence, and the SLR, a Category C licence. This is more than the most basic A/B licence (which basically allows hunting rifles and shotguns) but neither were all that hard to get. You just have to provide a reason you need it (the most common reasons are farming/pest control, but there are others as well).

This is the website for my local gunshop. It's a pretty small shop.

This is the website for a somewhat bigger operation.

There are quite a lot of gunshops around - though not as many as there are in the US - that's probably the clearest indication that guns aren't banned. Shops openly selling them located in every decent sized town, and on the web.

And yes, I'm an Aussie, born and bred.

11 posted on 02/21/2014 12:43:07 AM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: naturalman1975

You are right - Americans need the full picture of what happened there.

BUT, registration is still the first step to confiscation - and there will be a huge fight here before that every happens nation-wide. There is registration now in some states.

Yes, the guys with the big collection out in the country had NOT registered their guns - thought it not necessary as they didn’t use most of them, and others were in common use in area.

Para Ordinance 1911? What year? Some had a history of jamming - I have personal experience with a friend’s that did. I’m a Sig guy.

http://www.sigsauer.com/CatalogProductDetails/1911-stx.aspx

Can you get semi-autos rifles? AR-15/AK-47/Ruger Mini-14 or 30?


12 posted on 02/21/2014 5:32:50 AM PST by Arlis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Arlis
You are right - Americans need the full picture of what happened there.

BUT, registration is still the first step to confiscation - and there will be a huge fight here before that every happens nation-wide. There is registration now in some states.

Yes, we do have universal registration, and that does make us more vulnerable to confiscation if that ever becomes a government's desire. It's not an ideal situation - just not as bad as it gets painted overseas. Our laws are, to a great extent, based on compromises between those who did want a near total ban back in the late 1990s (which included the Prime Minister, John Howard - a conservative in most ways, but city born and bred and who doesn't get guns at all) and those who managed to persuade them that there are actually legitimate reasons for law abiding citizens to own firearms. There's a lot of compromise involved, and it's not perfect. Just not as bad as it gets presented.

Yes, the guys with the big collection out in the country had NOT registered their guns - thought it not necessary as they didn’t use most of them, and others were in common use in area.

Yes, well, that's what would have got them in serious trouble. If you break the laws that are in place, they will come down on you like a tonne of bricks.

Para Ordinance 1911? What year? Some had a history of jamming - I have personal experience with a friend’s that did. I’m a Sig guy.

I'm not sure of the year. I bought it, more or less, because it was what was easily available at the time - importing guns from overseas is complicated for bureaucratic reasons and most gun shops only carry a small range of handguns. It's a Para Ordance P-18 chambered for 38 super (another one of our laws is that .38 is the largest calibre allowed for a basic handgun. I'd prefer something larger but the 38 will do the job it needs to do).

I've never noticed any jamming issues, but I only take it down to a range three or four times a years to make sure I can still shoot straight. For me, guns are a tool. I enjoy shooting, but it's not a major hobby and I don't have any other reason to do it all that often.

Can you get semi-autos rifles? AR-15/AK-47/Ruger Mini-14 or 30?

Yes - the rifle I put a picture up of is a semi-auto - An Australian Small Arms Factory Self Loading Rifle (SLR), based on the Belgian FN FAL, and also known as the L1A1. It's what I learned to use in the Navy, which is why I chose it - I'm comfortable with it. I hold it on a 'Category C Licence'.

AR-15s and AK-47s (and derivatives) require Category D Licences, which are extremely hard to get - unless you are a full time professional shooter. To get a Category C licence, I had to sit an interview with my local firearms officer to make sure I was a 'fit and proper person'. He was a Police Sergeant. To get a Category D licence, requires the personal approval of the state's Police Chief Commissioner - the most senior law enforcement officer in the state - it's an order of magnitude higher and harder.

Using terms, Americans tend to be familiar with, an A/B licence (the basic firearm licence for things like basic hunting rifles and shot guns) is 'Will Issue'. A C licence is 'May Issue', a D licence on that scale would be 'Only issued in extremely unusual circumstances.'

The laws are inconsistent too - an AR15 or AK47 is really no more 'dangerous' than my SLR, but the SLR is CatC and they are CatD, and the reasons for the difference really comes down to politics and image. Because the SLR was the standard military rifle here from the 1960s to the 1980s, it's popular with veterans and nobody wants to suggest veterans can't be trusted. The AR15 and AK47 are perceived differently. There's also the fact that there is a company making AR15s in Australia under licence, and that makes the gun law people edgy about making it a CatC weapon - an 'unofficial' control on people owning CatC and CatD is the import restrictions making that complicated - home grown CatC's would be a game changer in that regard.

I think Ruger Mini 14s are CatC (I know Ruger 10s are). The Mini-30 is, I think, CatD.

13 posted on 02/21/2014 2:44:32 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: naturalman1975

A mini-14 shoots the same round as an AR-15, and is a very similar semi-auto - as I’m sure you know - so I’m surprised it also wouldn’t be a CatD. A survey was done of our Army infantry, and 50% prefered it to an AR-15 for close-in combat. Not as accurate as an AR, but possibly more reliable, not so finicky about cleaning.....easier to swing around they said.

While my state Virginia is being taken over by Marxists from the North (DC suburbs), we have perhaps the best gun laws - for now - in the country. ANYONE can open carry any weapon anywhere except schools and federal buildings, courts. AND anyone can carry a weapon in their car’s console or glove compartment without a CCW permit. All concealed carry however, on person, requires a CCW that is anyone can get except felons or domestic abusers, mental cases, etc.

It will take the Marxists a while to change VA laws as conservatives will most likely continue to control our House of Delegate - the Senate is a tie with the winning vote going to our liberal Dem. Lt. Gov. The House will veto any attempts to take away our freedoms.

It was here that Patrick Henry gave his “Give me liberty or give me death” speech - AND MY GREAT X4 GRANDFATHER WAS NOT ONLY THERE TO HEAR IT (I have his sworn testimony in writing from 1832 in his Revolutionary War Pension application), but more of my family that lived near Patrick Henry signed up for the Minutemen than any other family in that county.


14 posted on 02/21/2014 5:28:15 PM PST by Arlis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson