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Will Putin Seize Crimea?
The Moscow Times ^ | February 24, 2014 | Josh Cohen

Posted on 02/24/2014 10:20:59 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

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1 posted on 02/24/2014 10:21:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Unlikely to be a seizure. More a very willing secession, since they are ethnic Russians.


2 posted on 02/24/2014 10:23:07 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

there should be two elements of Ukraine to settle this issue

The same applies to the US


3 posted on 02/24/2014 10:31:53 PM PST by LeoWindhorse
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yes.

It wont be tagged as him seizing the AO. Nope. It’ll be tagged, both by his and our media, as Russia coming to the aid of an oppressed minority.

The Ukraine won’t sit still for it. The legit portion of The Ukraine, anyway.

It will then turn into a full blown civil war much in the form of the Spanish civil war.

Poland has already, more or less, declared for the western Ukraine. I suspect Hungry to do the same soon.

The EU will interfere in their usual passive aggressive, cowardly and mealy mouthed manner as well.


4 posted on 02/24/2014 10:33:21 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Grimmy

Europe will write memos. It will not fight for the freedom of the Ukraine.


5 posted on 02/24/2014 10:40:30 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
On Feb. 19, 1954, the Secretary General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, gifted Crimea to Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with tsarist Russia.

To Khrushchev it wasn't just a gift....He was trying to win a power struggle at the time, and he needed to win over the Ukrainians he ruled over as Stalin's appointed boss.

6 posted on 02/24/2014 10:44:59 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Crimean main anti-Russian element are Muslim Turkish leftovers, making between 10 and 15% population. It is enough to make troubles.


7 posted on 02/24/2014 10:51:29 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: Jonty30
With a population of 45m, Ukraine doesn't need armed foreign intervention. It needs guns, ammo and food. The Crimea was a consolation prize - Russia's equivalent of reparations - for the deaths of millions of Ukrainians (including the Holodomor - its equivalent of the Holocaust) over the centuries while fighting against Russian absolutism. If Ukrainians feel strongly about the Crimea, they may end up having to fight for it. However, I think the likelihood of a Russian intervention is low, because Ukraine's large available population of fighting age males means a Ukraine determined to hold on to the Crimea could inflict hundreds of thousands of casualties - over time - on Russian forces, including tens of thousands of dead.
8 posted on 02/24/2014 10:52:39 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Kenyan bastard’s weakness and cowardice practically invites a Russian attack and has brought us to the verge of World War III.


9 posted on 02/24/2014 10:53:58 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Zhang Fei

>>(including the Holodomor - its equivalent of the Holocaust)<<

Not again...


10 posted on 02/24/2014 10:54:08 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: Jonty30

F the EU.


11 posted on 02/24/2014 10:55:27 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: cunning_fish
Not again...

That's correct - a strong, self-reliant Ukraine will never again have millions of its people deliberately starved to death by Russian overlords.

12 posted on 02/24/2014 10:56:45 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

>>>That’s correct - a strong, self-reliant Ukraine will never again have millions of its people deliberately starved<<<

Really hope for that, but I was mostly referring to Holodomor myth you have brought up.


13 posted on 02/24/2014 10:59:23 PM PST by cunning_fish
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To: Viennacon

Pretty much.....that part of the Ukraine would prefer
to remain Russian. If such a partition could be arranged
peacefully then so be it. Putin however is not particularly
subtle. Things could get ugly if they don’t go his way.


14 posted on 02/24/2014 11:08:58 PM PST by nvscanman
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hard to believe Russia would let Crimea go. They didn’t expel the Tatars en masse for nothing.


15 posted on 02/24/2014 11:11:11 PM PST by Argus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They have already hauled up the Russian tricolor and taken down the Ukrainian flag.

The new authorities in Kiev are more bent on seeking revenge than in working for national unity.

Moscow would not mind if Ukraine split up and for most Russians the NovoRossiya has always been part of the Motherland.


16 posted on 02/24/2014 11:13:56 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Same issues as Georgia.

Half pro Russian or transplanted Russian Nationals...Other half wants independence and there is also a religious aspect.

This is all far from over..and even when victory is declared by one side or the other, it’s still not over..


17 posted on 02/24/2014 11:17:33 PM PST by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
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To: Jonty30

“Europe will write memos. It will not fight for the freedom of the Ukraine.”

That’s, basically what I meant.

Add to it, though, that the EU will invent some way to blame the Russian atrocities on the US, while demanding that the US “do something!” to fix it.


18 posted on 02/24/2014 11:22:28 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Zhang Fei

Stalin’s famine affected Russia as well, especially the Kuban valley. If we are going to talk about Stalinist crimes, you should also look at what Stalin did to the Crimean Tatars. The crimes of a Georgian communist are no reason to force Russians and Tatars to be slaves to Ukraine. Ukraine should have self-determination and so should Crimea and eastern oblasts like Luhansk.


19 posted on 02/24/2014 11:29:13 PM PST by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: Viennacon

The West should abandon its obsession with keeping a disparate people together within borders set by foreign colonial powers, and not by the people themselves. Crimea and eastern Ukraine should have a fair vote, and if a supermajority (say 60%) want to secede, they should be allowed to do so.
US policy has been schizophrenic, promoting the breakup of Yugoslavia, while insisting that Bosnia and Herzegovina remain as one country. Then wanting Kosovo to split from Serbia while not letting its Serb parts remain in Serbia.
In each case, US sided with Muslims, who are not known for liking compromise or living peaceably with other religions.
Eritrea Muslims didn’t want to live under Ethiopian Christians, so that’s OK.
And somehow we let South Sudan free to fight among themselves.
Iraqis are still killing each other because we tried to make one nation out of three. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia (Somaliland) should be broken up into uncivilized parts and half-civilized parts. Libya and Syria, too. Maybe I’ll move to the Republic of Texas.


20 posted on 02/24/2014 11:36:21 PM PST by Rainier1789 (My Constitution has a 2nd and 10th Amendment)
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