Unlikely to be a seizure. More a very willing secession, since they are ethnic Russians.
Pretty much.....that part of the Ukraine would prefer
to remain Russian. If such a partition could be arranged
peacefully then so be it. Putin however is not particularly
subtle. Things could get ugly if they don’t go his way.
The West should abandon its obsession with keeping a disparate people together within borders set by foreign colonial powers, and not by the people themselves. Crimea and eastern Ukraine should have a fair vote, and if a supermajority (say 60%) want to secede, they should be allowed to do so.
US policy has been schizophrenic, promoting the breakup of Yugoslavia, while insisting that Bosnia and Herzegovina remain as one country. Then wanting Kosovo to split from Serbia while not letting its Serb parts remain in Serbia.
In each case, US sided with Muslims, who are not known for liking compromise or living peaceably with other religions.
Eritrea Muslims didn’t want to live under Ethiopian Christians, so that’s OK.
And somehow we let South Sudan free to fight among themselves.
Iraqis are still killing each other because we tried to make one nation out of three. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia (Somaliland) should be broken up into uncivilized parts and half-civilized parts. Libya and Syria, too. Maybe I’ll move to the Republic of Texas.
Well....there’s one interesting issue. It’s the eastern side of the country that would be mostly Russian in interest. ALL of the Russian natural gas lines....run through the western sector. So, there’s some serious thinking going on here. It’s best to go in....get corrupt with the new guys, and pretend things are ok with a friendly EU and a new gov’t...while building up the old corruption cycle. There’s too much at stake here to screw things up.
If Ukraine doesn’t just hand it over, there will be a separatist movement, like Ossetia, created by Russia to goad Ukraine into conflict. Then Russia can ride in as protectors as they did in Georgia. The question, will Ukraine spring the trap like Georgia did?
You answered my question. If the majority population of Crimea is Russian, and they think they should be part of Russia, it’s going to be difficult for Ukraine to hang on to it if they turn away from Russia.
Not impossible. But I doubt Ukraine is going to go to war with Russia to keep it.