Skip to comments.Dow Futures way down all of a sudden
Posted on 03/02/2014 3:52:03 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Dow futures down -127 at this time.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
I hear Russia banks raised their rates earlier today
S&P500 will probably drop to about 1800 just on profit taking; what happens after that is anybody’s guess. The market is in the stratosphere, but it generally has to go up until the last short finally gives in, and then it tanks—and it has to tank sometime in the next year or so, corporate earnings are not going to be sustainable in the present political environment. (NB: don’t invest on the basis of my harebrained speculation here :> )
I don’t think 120 points is panic time.
March 4th is Tuesday.
Of course 120 points is not panic time. Neither is 500 points. Nor is 1000 panic time. Panic time is when the people elect the person they elected President of the United states the SECOND TIME. We’ll see later why that was a reason for panic.
In the era of that person his shield has protected him from really bad market days. Some days it has almost been comical. Thinking it has to end sometime.
1000 points and I would be showing some concern. ;^)
Of course it is Ukraine. They didn’t drop suddenly , they just opened for trading. If the Dow is not off 100 points I’d be surprised. Remember that it takes over 160 Dow Points just to move 1%.
Interesting, tho that was "Data as of 6:57pm ET". As of this post the real time contract on barchart is
This stuff changes big time. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
America could survive Barack Hussein Obama, but it can not survive a population which would re-elect him.
Or, to paraphrase the wookie, for the first time in my entire life I am ashamed of my country. Perhaps terminally.
Market tanked on CHINA PMI last time...number released Friday night lower than last time.
corporate earnings are not going to be sustainable in the present political environment
Nothing harebrained about that at all. I think your comment makes perfect sense. The market was overheated and poised for a fall for numerous reasons, especially a toxic political environment that’s bad for business.
As Buffet has repeatedly said, be fearful when others are greedy.
The 'war', if such occurs in Ukraina and/or Crimea, is not apt to be a major mkt mover worldwide. To the practical observer, Putin can take over or control Ukraina, effectively, whenever he likes. The more interesting question is: will Ukraina partition itself into two nations with the dividing line being, of course, the Dniestr.
Remember: this is "central bank week" plus the ridiculous non-farm payroll burlesque comedy. The CBs of Canada and Australia won't do squat. The ECB, aka Dildoes United, if they offer any changes at all, will content themselves with cosmetic ones. The BLS will, as usual, pluck a "jobs" number out of its arse, then quietly revise the figures lower next week.
1800 is a possibility this week on the SP. Traders should consider a **light** position long the March SP puts, perhaps the 1830 strike, for a quick hit.
Crude and the products rate to stay well bid all week on the Russian/Ukrainan uncertainty. Natural gas will be bid early on this week, but likely will tail off toward week-end as the last major US cold wave starts to vanish.
Good trading to all, and FReegards!
1000 points and I would be showing some concern. ;^)
I would be shopping for rock solid dividend payers. :)
“Panic time is when the people elect the person they elected President of the United states the SECOND TIME. Well see later why that was a reason for panic.”
So totally agree.
These days, a 120-point move is nothing traumatic, especially after a weekend. Resetting to adjust to new situations which came up after the close Friday. And yes, it’s mostly about Ukraine.
Crude oil is up almost $2 (or 2%); gold is up 16 (1.1%).
Tokyo stocks off 2%; other Asian/Aussie stocks off 0.5 to 1.5%.
“Risk off” seems the order of the day, but no panic at this point.
“Panic time is when people elect ...the SECOND TIME.”
That is a truth that I don’t know we can fight.
“Panic time is when the people elect the person they elected President of the United states the SECOND TIME.”
What do you call it when they elect him for a THIRD time?
I think it’s going to be the imposter round III or his Chewbacca because the hildabeast is not electable material at this point in her disgusting existence.
I hate to say it I think you are so right
ukraine, iran, etc.
Wars and rumors of war.
right now its tense but not a fire zone. Any bullets start flying and add a zero after the 127.
Where will capital fly off to?
And keep an eye on Brazilian weather. 181 cities in Brazil are already rationing water, in some cases as little as 12 litres a day per household (!). Should the drought persist for another (say) month, both coffee and sugar prices will go absolutely mad. Traders should at least have a look at bullish vertical call spreads in both mkts, with sugar having the lower risk by far, but coffee at least holding out the possibility of spectacular gains (>1000% on capital) should the rains stay away.
Best to you,
“...it can not survive a population which would re-elect him.”
Dow futures down -138 at this posting.
Whatever it is it's now worse & getting worser. Trying to decide if I want to just go back to bed or hide under it.
LOL. Yeah... down 151 now but it’s 0.93% so I’m not quite ready to jump out of my window... :-)
Do I really need a sarc tag?
Wait a minute. She tripped last year and the market was up 30%! Time to buy on the Lawrence indicator!
Maybe Putin shut down that gas pipeline to Eastern Europe. John Kerry isn’t going to be happy about that.
yeah, holding steady for an hour or so.
On the one hand this morning is the worst it’s been in years, and on the other hand the past few years have been extraordinarily kind. Remembering ‘09 this is nottin’.
--and if he gets really ticked off he may threaten to agree to disagree...
Exactly. It’s been an incredible ride since March 2009. I was at a presentation two weeks ago with the chief economist for NASDAQ and the lead floor governor for NYSE. The economist was, naturally, pessimistic and the trader was, naturally, optimistic. The best thing from the presentation was the technical chart for S&P showing that we might be having a technical breakout after a double top peak (1999 and 2007). He said that the markets had gone up by 30% in a year four times since the 70’s. In the following year the average increase is 22%.
The other interesting thing was a presentation by Richard Fisher on monetary and fiscal policy. Harsh words about the fiscal side of the house.
Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a round-up of what traders are chatting about before the opening bell:
Good Morning! All about the Ukraine this AM, as Russias latest moves spark angst and a flight to safety. Futures in the USA are marked off 1%, and just off the lows of the overnight. As VIX futures are marked up 10% This mirrors weakness overseas, with the DAX off almost 3%, and the FTSE 2%, as banks have been hit by concerns over exposure to Russian and Ukrainian banks. Volume is quite heavy in Europe, with most markets trading 50% above their recent 20day averages. Russia off over 10% as the Rouble collapses to record lows Their Central Bank stepped in and raised 150bp, citing risks to financial stability. Polands market was initially hit for almost 4%. Ukraine itself not off all the bad, as their FX is higher as they await bailout teams, and their CDS is only up 1% overnight. In Asia, China bounced almost 1% despite their PMI hitting 7M lows, as one of the unintended consequences of the Yuan weakening is liquidity is spiking in their money markets. The Nikkei was hit for 1.2%, and futures are marked about 80bp lower as the Yen is spiking on haven flows. Sectors to focus on will be the weaker banks (Ukraine/Russia exposure) Gold Miners (up 4% as Gold is spiking) Casinos (Macau Numbers blowing out) and the Divvy Sectors like REITS with 10YY dropping hard.
10YY crashes under the 200dma Now yielding 2.6%, gearing up to test October Lows near 2.47%. We have Safe haven FX jumping including the Yen and Swiss Franc. The Euro is getting hit sharply, helping the DXY bounce despite the jumping Yen a headwind for commodities. That said, Russia is the worlds largest energy exporter, including both oil and gas so combined with the cold Northeast, we have both Brent and Natty up 2.5%. Gold is adding 2% on haven flows, now the highest since October. Wheat climbed the most in 17 months and corn rose to the highest since September as tensions escalated in Ukraine, a leading exporter of both grains.
Personal spending up +0.4% (exp +0.1%)
Perosnal income +0.3% (exp +0.2%)
PCE +1.1% (exp +1.1%)
DJIA down about 130 ten minutes in.
Down 169.76(1.04%) 10:18AM EST