I think Putin will posture about the future of Ukraine... But for now will settle for the Crimean peninsula. And he’ll get to keep it, without firing a single shot in anger.
Because that’s what he wanted.
We are being taken to school, gentlemen. Best we at least learn something.
He may. The real question is, how he would accomplish the anschluss. Before the invasion, he had a clear path to a legal acquisition of Crimea through economic pressure, a referendum and first independence, then on some new pretext, annexation. Note that given the Crimea's history as a longstanding Russian imperial acquisition outside of Ukraine, everyone outside of Crimea would just shrug it off.
Now he foreclosed on that option: no referendum can be legitimate after the invasion, even if he withdraws, even if some drooling idiot like Carter certifies the result. The Russian Federation has demonstrated an aggressive attitude and an aggressive capability to invade Crimea. Fair plebiscite is impossible. What will follow is the only thing the Sovs know: they will foment a loyal to them minority till such time that it wins an election in Crimea once. Then it is back to the USSR all the way.
RF has just put itself on course for another USSR and another Cold War on a geographically smaller stage. The question becomes: have the Sovs learned their lesson?