Skip to comments.History Suggests Ukraine Has Lost Crimea Forever (Latest "Frozen Conflict" Statelet Alert)
Posted on 03/04/2014 12:36:31 AM PST by goldstategop
Crimea is probably lost to Ukraine. Within the space of a few days, it has become the latest in a string of "frozen conflict" zones that Russia has used to strong-arm ex-Soviet neighbors ever since the Union collapsed.
The history of these unrecognized statelets suggests that authorities in Kiev are unlikely to regain control of Crimea for decades, if ever. There are few better ways of understanding events on the peninsula right now than to look at how these other "frozen" zones emerged
It is hard to imagine Putin or any other Russian leader ceding control of Crimea to Kiev again. At best, the de facto loss of Crimea will prove to be the price of Ukraines full independence.
With Crimea under his belt, the temptation for Putin to add Odessa and a few other regions of Eastern Ukraine, creating a contiguous Russian-controlled zone from Transnistria to Abkhazia, will be similarly great. I doubt Putin will be able to resist. I suspect, however, that he would prefer to do it by subterfuge, providing him with leverage over the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev, and avoiding the risks and costs of war. After all, he has a tried and tested model to use.
“The long-term strategy is to create a cordon-sanitare of Moscow friendly pseudo countries allied with the Kremlin who constitute a buffer against inevitable EU and NATO encroachment on Russia’s territorial space. For Moscow, friendly relations with the West take a back seat to preserving Russian influence in its own “near abroad.””
Interesting turn of phrase here. The EU and NATO encroachment and expanding towards Russia’s “territorial space” is called “inevitable”. Why is it “inevitable” that NATO should expand and encroach?
Is NATO truly wanting to expand right up to the Russian Border? Odd for a defensive alliance, as was attacking Libya and Syria.
And also, why exactly should Moscow prefer “friendly relations with the west” if that means giving up its influence in its near abroad? Who wants a friendship with someone who insists everything be centered around their plans and designs? That if you ever oppose them, you are now ruining the friendship?
If you really stop and look at all this there are some very odd things being said.
Russia regains Crimea is a good outcome
NATO has expanded to Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Membership is being offered to Georgia.
Russians see it as a Western alliance directed against them. They remember Napoleon and Hitler and they’re not inclined to allow any one to take up a presence on their borders. With the Baltic States, they had no choice as they were weak at the time NATO took them under its wings but they’re determined not let that happen in Ukraine.
If they can’t eliminate the potential threat, they can at least neutralize it. A cordon-sanitare would serve as an early warning system for Russia. Taking Crimea for them is a requirement and not an option and their takeover of it has ensured they won’t wake up one day with NATO just across the Kerch Straits.
Putin has calculated the strategic imperative of keeping the Crimea out of the West’s hands overrides all other considerations. The Russians are more or less going to stay for good and as for the rest they can bide their time for now.
First clear headed writing I’ve seen since the whole “invasion” panic started. Now if we can just get the politicians and reporters who are running around with their hair on fire to calm down, this thing’ll play out just the way it was always going to.
And please notice they didn’t do it with an Army smaller than any since World War II!
Disinformation about past american military presence (snipers)in Maidan is accelerating. Disinformation about current american troop presence in Lviv is curculating. The Ukrainian revolutionaries believe that NATO will bail them out. They are unaware of how they have been played by cynical power grabbers who will turn Ukraine into Kosovo for exchange of $$$$$$$$ Millions of dollars were spent to keep the Maidan project alive from Nov 21, 2013. Food, guns, ammunition, all kinds of support for the occupiers materialzed. 5 Billion US dollars went to the Ukraine destabilization project several years ago.
The Maidan Ukrainians don't know what's behind the door they have opened. The cynical calculation from the deep statists - the financiers and bureaucratic overlords is that the from chaos will come order - and that the overseers of Europe will take Ukraine for their next moslem proxy state.
The bankers and Bernanke brain-dead economists that have bled america dry are working their way to Moscow by proxy. The oil and gas concession to Europe is a big prize. As Yulia Tymoshenko said - today Ukraine, tomorrow Belarus. Then on to Moscow.
At some point, Russia will decide the time has come for it to control the land around Kaliningrad.
Disagree. Letting the USSR-lite regain ANY territory is not a good outcome for anyone.
Can we say NATO and Russia are "encroaching," or that NATO are Russia are seeking "influence" in their "near abroads?"
The fact that the Crimean population is predominantly of Russian heritage, speaks the language; and the fact that Crimea is an autonomous region and that their legislators and governor officially invited Russia to come in; all these things tell me that Crimea is now part of Russia.
If Ukraine fights, it will be with the full resources of a nation state of 50m people behind it, donations from emigres and potential material support from the West. Once mobilized, Ukraine could turn the Crimea into a real tar baby for both Putin and Russia. People who think ethnic groups sharing a similar language can't engage is vast blood-lettings need to take another look at the breakup of Yugoslavia, where nothing like the Holodomor (7m civilians deliberately starved to death to bend Ukraine to Russia's will) ever occurred.
And California is now part of Mexico, if you apply the same standards.
“For Moscow, friendly relations with the West take a back seat to preserving Russian influence in its own “near abroad.”
It’s about the Crimean ports. All the fine scenarios and analysis aside, Russia is securing their only warm-water port. This is not “near afar” stuff, but the linchpin supporting Russian global influence in the Middle East and Mediterranean.
If the US was in Putins shoes we'd be doing the same thing...even so Ukraine will remain a divided country always trying to figure out how to get along within itself
Chart shows dependency on Russia oil....
“...even so Ukraine will remain a divided country...”
Agreed. Russia will risk everything over the Crimea.
in a few years when the political clout of Hispanics takes over the CA state government and governors mansion, the same scenario may well take place. There are many militant Mexicans there already. The Mexican government would willingly supply the muscle - or at least try. Another Obama type in the WH would probably do nothing other than wring his/her hands.
Modernists want diversity not realizing what future consequences are possible.
I totally agree, and with great sadness. I lived in CA for 22 years. Impossible to live there any more. Old friend lives in a lovely “senior” building in Santa Monica with a view of the ocean. He walks to Starbucks every morning and more often than not is bumped off the sidewalk by “militant mexicans.” Another acquaintance lived in Malibu, where he thought his family would be safe. His teenage son was shot in the head. Fortunately survived.
So now a lot of CA people live in the NW. It’s nice here, but how I miss my ocean. Big sigh.
AS for the Crimea, I was hoping to go as a tourist one day the old summer palace of the Tsar is there, many other beautiful things to see. Ironic, isn’t it, that Putin went to such great lengths to show the world the beauty of the Black Sea shore, and now, a week or two later, he’s made it one of the last places on earth a sane person would visit.
It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world.