Do the Russians in Crimea really want to join Russia? One might think so on the surface, but there are some who speak Russian that want nothing to do with Russia. Russia has not always been the best of friends with all people in the region.
It is probably about 50/50. None of the Tartars or Ukrainians will want to be in a Russian Crimea. Most but not all of the ethnic Russians would be in favor I suppose. That leaves you about 50/50 in a fair vote but there won’t be a fair vote.
Then there is the logistic hassle. What if you live in Crimea but your kids go to school in Kiev? What a mess that would be if you suddenly lived in a foreign country. So in the end I think a lot of Russians would prefer to stay in Ukraine. That’s why the Russians are having this sham snap vote right now.
I think you raise some good points. Much appreciated.
I was aware of the Tartar issue. The Ukrainians are a given too. Agreed.
I am suspect of the vote.
You raised logistic concerns were good points too.