Posted on 03/06/2014 10:48:25 PM PST by ckilmer
It is a multi-generational truth that electricity consumption only increases. This is best seen in the US where, since 1949, electricity demand has marched upward in a nearly uninterrupted pattern with the country never experiencing two consecutive years of negative growth.
Even here in Australia with data going back to 1961, we have never experienced two consecutive years of negative growth either.
Figure 1 – US and Australia Electricity Consumption (Billion Kilowatt hours)
Electricity demand falls in USA in four of last five years
However, in the US, how is it that in four of the past five years to 2012, electricity demand has indeed fallen? In fact, the same unprecedented softening in electricity consumption is happening in many places around the world (Figure 2).
Figure 2 –Compound Annual Growth Rate for Electricity Demand for Selected Countries
Source: Bloomberg, national statistical departments. Long term is: Australia – 51 years; US – 63 years; Japan – 20 years; Germany, France, Italy and UK – 22 years.
Why has electricity demand fallen?
While the global financial crisis and subsequently weak economic environment are partially to blame for the decline, we believe there are three other contributing factors:
1. Rise of distributed generation
2. Increasing energy efficiency
3. Behavioural changes
Distributed generation is a term to describe the shift away from producing energy near a fuel source (which is typically far away from consumers) to producing near the consumer. The best example of this is solar panels on rooftops, where electricity is produced and consumed onsite.
No power bill from rooftop solar panels – getting consumers off the power grid
This can be extended to other forms of micro generation and energy storage, which collectively reduce energy lost from long distance transmission and harden the system against unplanned outages. Much of the micro-generation (rooftop solar panels, microturbines, fuel cells and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) units) is occurring behind the meter, meaning consumers are reducing their use of grid power. As explained by Edison International, it has seen the consumption share of industrial users in Southern California go from one-third of total electricity consumption to only 10 per cent as many installed super-efficient CHP units onsite.
Rooftop solar installations are now doing the same thing with residential and commercial electricity demand, as they swap local grid power with self generation and, in some cases, even put excess power back into the grid. Solar power and CHP units are both established technologies and within financial reach of much of the population, indicating this trend will continue.
LED light bulbs use up to 90 per cent less electricity
The most efficient watt is the one you don’t use because it uses no resources to produce it at all. This simple idea is embodied in energy efficient products and services, which is gaining significantly more attention. LED light bulbs use up to 90 per cent less electricity as a comparable incandescent light bulb. Insulation in your home immediately cuts energy bills. Recycling an aluminium can uses 95 per cent less energy than making it from virgin materials. Collectively, these efficiency measures are impacting consumption as the high cost of energy brings the issue sharply into focus for consumers and businesses. The price of energy is not going lower and, as a precious resource, it just makes sense for its use to continue to be carefully rationed.
Perhaps because conservation and the environment have become mainstream issues, utilities are telling us they are seeing behavioural differences between their younger and older customers. While an older customer would simply turn on the aircon when it is hot, younger customers are increasingly just opening a window. While their evidence seems to be more anecdotal than scientific, the Australian Bureau of Statistics noted in a recent study of social trends that four out of five people (80 per cent) who reduced their electricity usage reported this was due to efforts to conserve energy.
In contrast, saving money and lifestyle changes was given as a reason only about one in five times (20 per cent). Attitudes take a long time to form and to change but once entrenched are difficult to dislodge. We suspect a new generational trend is becoming entrenched that recognises our individual actions have ramifications for the collective.
Winners and losers in energy market
How energy is produced, transported and consumed is in constant flux due to a multitude of factors. These factors will result in winners and losers.
Just as falling electricity consumption is bad for the owner of a generator, the winners will be those companies that reduce a customer’s dependence on the grid.
It’s called a major recession.
Yup. Meat consumption will show a sharper drop.
fyi
I don’t suppose higher electricity prices have anything to do with it.
Use a home generator to increase electricity.1 KW in 2 KW out.
The yellow line and the blue line have come together to form...
GREEN!
I know several families who are now heating with wood during the winter & others who are supplementing with wood since electricity is too high, especially when they’re fighting to keep food on the table & a roof over their heads in this economy. I guess that’s why the EPA is going after wood stoves .....
I converted my 4 story row house to all CFL’s 20 years ago. My bills then were around $28, and immediately dropped to $18. That was over $100 a year savings in 1995. So I figure I have saved at least $3,000, plus the bulbs that don’t wear out for 5 to 8 years.
This has got to be one of the dumbest sentences I have ever read.
These kids today understand so much better than us spoiled old people. We don't realize how good we had it when we were young.
I suppose the large increase in homelessness has nothing to do with it. {{{snicker}}}
Bingo.
However, in the US, how is it that in four of the past five years to 2012, electricity demand has indeed fallen?>>>>>>>>>>>>>( article)>>>>>>>>>>
It’s called a major recession>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>( yours)>>>>>
And if the Obama socialist evolutionary trend is allowed to continue, we will look just like North Korea does at night
via satellite photos. A black hole in an otherwise prospering world.
The collective and careful rationing are mentioned in this propaganda piece. Not hard to figure out where these folks are coming from.
CFL’s last 5 to 8 years except you can’t fricken see.
Older people simply turn on the aircon while young people open a window? That is just a bunch of bullcrap. Old people die instead of using air conditioning, because it costs too much. Young people don’t turn on the “aircon” because it is already on, they never turn it off. And nobody gets up from a game of Call of Duty to open up a window.
The new EnergyStar Telescreens make a difference.
Tangent to this...
Spoke with an old friend days ago in the power-generation industry, i.e. those that design and make the plants. I asked are we setting ourselves up for brown-outs with taking all this coal off line? "Yep" was the answer. Those in the biz know, long term this is not good. If I understand this correct, yes we got lots of Natural Gas, but I am not sure they have the pipelines to handle the volume they will need if we get more of them with a -20 winter like we had here in the mid-west and on the east coast this year...
“...demand falling and what does it mean?
Higher prices to pay for built in costs of production.
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