Posted on 03/07/2014 10:31:28 PM PST by SatinDoll
Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?)
This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.
Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate - this is the biggest miss on record...
Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad...
*CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM
and non-seaonally-adjusted
*CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)
The excuse...
"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.
Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.
But, our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so - then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?
At least they didn't blame the weather?!!
It seems the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans - also did not help as imports surged...
*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS
All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing - not good for the credit unwind
And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM...
Confucius say:
"He who relies most on making & selling discretionary goods during boom times suffer most when sour economy & stagnant and declining real wages lead to gloom times."
Bernanke, Kuroda-san, Draghi, the PBoC, and the rest of central banker wankers BROKE THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Sit back & enjoy the fireworks to follow.
SO MANY people & entities paid way too much for mispriced assets over the last 5 years that it is positively EPIC.
And hundreds of massive, multinational corporations that invested TRILLIONS in China over the last 20 years in the form of plants, factories, R&D centers, and other caped begin to literally fret...
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Those who have been doing business with the Chinese are going to be really, really sorry.
I’m curious why China suddenly put the brakes on mailing goods, for many months it has taken weeks for goods to leave China.
We thought it had to do with lithium batteries, but it is way beyond that, order something from China, and it just sits, and sits, and sits, literally for weeks, before they let it go.
Little things are taking 45 and 55 days to get here.
Excellent — now keep their slave-labor garbage out of our country, or at least put on a tariff so heavy that the cost of buying them will be prohibitive. They’re wobbling. Let’s give them a little push.
Americans are broke for the most part and aren’t buying like they were and many around the world would say the same thing, so of course Chinese sales would be down.
I agree, but I would like to hear your reasons, if you don't mind. What do you think is going to happen?
Can you imagine Chinese Chicken taking 45 or 55 days to get here?
In the meantime everyone 'sign' this, please:
https://www.change.org/petitions/congress-keep-chinese-chicken-out-of-our-schools-and-supermarkets
Are you talking about ebay? I have ordered and received little $2-10 items that come direct from China or Hong Kong with no problem. Stuff like battery chargers, LED flashlight that was $3 and very good ran on 2 AA batteries, LCD thermometers etc minor computer parts/// etc
Good. Now instead of being down, let’s CRASH them.
Americans are broke for the most part....... So broke that WalMart is getting too expensive so they hit the dollar stores and their ilk
Live your life and their economy will do what it will do.
IMO we will be at war with China.
#1 They have polluted 60% of their drinking water.
#2 Been burning through their natural resources.
#3 Huge army of millions of men who have no wives due to all the abortions in China.
They must war and grab land and materials or die at this point IMO. But they have not learned to live clean yet and destroy everything in their path (again IMO).
Their are some tearing down old homes and building huge new ones in my neighborhood, and their also seems to be a dwindling middle class and far more poor.
California anyway has 90% of their births on welfare and a third of all the welfare in the country. I don’t see much promise in the near future for my state.
Because when the discretionary cash of Americans is no longer available to buy the kinds of things China manufactures, then those American businesses that have invested in hard assets, such as buildings and other facilities, will fail.
It is that simple.
I have very little discretionary cash. Literally, I scrape to come up with enough money to pay my utilities every month. So items manufactured in China are not being purchased by me. I’m not “feeding” this economic monster.
Read post #2.
I think they're hitting the couch!
Many are reaching into personal savings and credit cards.
Our Chinese retailers for flashlights are taking forever.
I just waited about 50 days for a flashlight, and my headlamp shipped on February 13, is still “”, Origin Post is Preparing Shipment””, on the flashlight forums many are complaining because the shipments are exceeding the 45 day Paypal limit for complaints.
Many times we have verified that it is Chinese customs delaying the shipments, not the retailers.
I can’t imagine why we would need to import chicken from China. If there is one thing we do well it is industrialized farming. Particularly chicken and other foul.
We can generally hatch, raise, harvest and ship and American chicken anywhere in the World for less than it can be raised in the local area.
It seems there is no process or product innovation we would not ‘share’ with our Asian friends for the benefit of saving a few pennies in production.
I have seen smog headlines recently, but even at that, it's still underplayed. To me it's surreal that we're having this "war on diesel", for example, when the air and water are cleaner than they have been in decades, even a century in urban areas.
Then I look at the MODIS satellite pictures of China, and it's like some kind of horror movie! Yet, it's ignored or glossed over. What is with that? Somebody tell me.
Thanks for posting this article which I was able to read just before going to bed...which I will do reassured that the long awaited “readjustment” in the S&P will come soon.
Barry’s popularity could be heading for a major swoon if the big bubbles pop around the world at the same time.
What it is would be power buying silence.
Don’t feel too bad about California where you reside. Other states are just going at it slower. My county will be just as bad in 20 years.
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