China and Russia aren’t as strong as people think; their respective economies have the illusion of strength, but if you look beneath the surface, you will see in the case of China a massive credit bubble (and credit bubbles don’t end well) and in Russia’s case a kleptocratic economy that is far too dependent on resources exports; Russia’s economy lacks diversity.
In the case of a caliphate, there simply isn’t one. The last caliphate sputtered to an end when the Ottoman Empire fell in 1923. Turkey, in theory, could be a major leader in the Islamic world, but with its fractious nature - not to mention an ongoing transnational Sunni/Shia religious war, akin to Europe’s Thirty Years’ War - the Turks would have far greater success in herding cats.
They have the potential to be a leading Islamic power, but it won’t be with Erdogan; he’s far too much his own worst enemy. And it won’t be Fetullah Gülen either. I don’t see that happening for another decade at least.
Japan's credit bubble burst when it caught up to the US in terms of per capita GDP. Given that China's number is 1/7 of the US, I'd say China has quite a while to go before that bubble bursts. Now, you could say that the ending of credit bubbles caused the Asian crisis of the 90's. However, the Asian economies kept growing rapidly after the crisis. Indonesia's pre-crisis GDP per capita was $1,083 in 1997, and $3,594 in 2012. Thailand's number was $2,481 in 1997, and $5,390 in 2012. South Korea's number was $11,583 in 1997, and $22,589 in 2012. Malaysia's number was $4,601 in 1997, and $10,345 in 2012. Compare that to the US number of $31,553 in 1997 and $51,704 in 2012. While US GDP per capita has grown, it has grown slower than any of the Asian countries that headlined the Asian Crisis, each of which has since almost (or more than) doubled its income number.
The country that really stands out in this time interval is China, which went from a number of $771 in 1997 to $6,071 in 2012. That's almost an eight-fold per capita output increase, and probably the reason that China went from a rounding error on the revenue statements of most foreign companies to one of their top 3 markets (#1 for KFC, #2 for Coach and Tiffany).
Japan's credit bubble burst when it caught up to the US in terms of per capita GDP. Given that China's number is 1/7 of the US, I'd say China has quite a while to go before that bubble bursts. Now, you could say that the ending of credit bubbles caused the Asian crisis of the 90's. However, the Asian economies kept growing rapidly after the crisis. Indonesia's pre-crisis GDP per capita was $1,083 in 1997, and $3,594 in 2012. Thailand's number was $2,481 in 1997, and $5,390 in 2012. South Korea's number was $11,583 in 1997, and $22,589 in 2012. Malaysia's number was $4,601 in 1997, and $10,345 in 2012. Compare that to the US number of $31,553 in 1997 and $51,704 in 2012. While US GDP per capita has grown, it has grown slower than any of the Asian countries that headlined the Asian Crisis, each of which has since almost (or more than) doubled its income number.
The country that really stands out in this time interval is China, which went from a number of $771 in 1997 to $6,071 in 2012. That's almost an eight-fold per capita output increase, and probably the reason that China went from a rounding error on the revenue statements of most foreign companies to one of their top 3 markets (#1 for KFC, #2 for Coach and Tiffany).