Posted on 03/14/2014 9:24:11 PM PDT by goldstategop
There will be a vote in Crimea on Sunday on whether to split from the Ukraine and join Russia. It is likely to pass. So there will not be a return to the status quo ante.
The best the United States and Western Europe can hope for would be an outcome in which Crimea is not formally detached from Ukraine, but has a very high degree of autonomy. This autonomy would include not just choices about domestic policies but about some aspects of foreign policy as well.
Ukraine would be a confederal state where at least one of the component parts would control some elements of foreign policy, rather than a federal state where only the central government has authority over international affairs. Crimea would formally remain a part of Ukraine. The scope of the issues that Crimean officials would be able to officially decide on their own — even if their Russian counterparts were looking over their shoulders — would have to be negotiated between Simferopol and Kiev, or at least accepted by Kiev.
The United States and the European Union should not oppose such negotiations, even though they will be hard for Kiev to swallow. The alternative would be the de jure, not just de facto, incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation. Which would demonstrate, yet again, the ineffectuality of American policy.
...
A confederal Ukraine of which Crimea was still de jure a part, is the only off-ramp available for the immediate crisis.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...
The Crimea has been Russian for over 300 years. It is home to Russia only warm water port. They are not going to let it go.
Estonia joined NATO on April the 2nd 2004
That doesn’t answer the question.
So let's look at the previous referendums that Crimea has had to get an idea of just how pro-Russian they really are.
Crimea held a referendum in January 1991 to effectively separate themselves from the collapsing USSR with 94% of the vote.
Crimea held another referendum declaring themselves an autonomous republic of Ukraine in December 1991 with 54% of the vote, officially separating themselves from the USSR and joining Ukraine.
The rest of Ukraine voted for independence with 90% of the vote.
It was the closest vote in the entire Ukraine, with a bare majority favoring joining Ukraine, but it WAS a majority. Keep in mind also that at this time most of the Tatars that were to return later had not arrived yet, and any legitimate referendum today would include their votes.
At the time it seemed like a good idea since no one wanted to hold the union state together.
What is notable if anything, the seismic fissures that broke it apart now threaten to break up Ukraine.
And I don’t think its something the politicians can stop now. Maybe the best way to prevent further strife is for restive members of the family to leave.
In the long run, that may be better for all concerned.
Well, not only did Crimea decide to separate themselves from the USSR but they also chose to join Ukraine with 54% of the vote.
Had the December 1991 referendum failed, they would have become an independent state upon the dissolution of the USSR, and it’s notable that they chose not to do so.
“If liberal California wanted to leave the Union, I would be all for it.”
Only if they take Massachusetts and New York with them.
And build a wall around them.
Whatever coloring or political description gets attached to this situation the fact of it is that Putin wants/needs all of Ukraine and he will get it. We will draw red lines and make stupid speeches but that won’t change a thing
There are no universal principles, besides the law that the strong rule and the weak submit.
Attempts to pretend otherwise have caused catastrophic harm to millions.
Meaningless.
NATO is a fiction, which Putin will expose if it suits him.
Then we are in for endless warfare.
It was part of theRUSSIAN EMPIRE. It was populated with Tatars ,not Russians.
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