Missing MH370: Investigators Conclude Plane Was Hijacked, AP Reports

Malaysia Star ^ | Saturday March 15, 2014

[Yosemitest]

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370 Based on profiling, pilots are unlikely suspects, says Israeli airline’s former security chief; he and other experts believe plane intact

[zipper]

One of the Israelis in the article says:

“Here, every blip on the screen is suspicious because that’s the way we live. That’s our daily program. I can’t imagine they pay as much attention, but if a blip runs wide or runs strange, I would expect them to notice.”

Someone on another thread posted a link to a theory that the missing 777 used SIA68 (Singapore Airlines flight 68) to cloak their own airplane until they could get across the Indian Ocean, away from primary radar.

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

I like this theory, generally speaking, without having plotted it out completely on the charts myself. I looked at FlightRadar24.com, plugged in a playback for 1720z on the 7th, and sure enough SIA68 is just approaching overhead Kuala Lumpur, at 502 knots and 30k. So according to this theory the plot of their radar track nearly coincided with SIA68's path sometime later, since MH370 turned west on a convergent path at the same time. MH370 was able to join up with them all the way across the Indian Ocean, to an undisclosed location.

I don't know if SIA68 was the host, the cloaking aircraft, since there are many other 777s in the same direction, and I don't agree that TCAS will work in a receive mode without giving away position, but otherwise I like this theory better that most others.

Incidentally a big airplane will paint on onboard weather radar at 25 miles, and emits only a very weak signal. They could have used this to help acquire a visual on another 777, after using a portable ADS-B receiver to find a suitable host airplane, much like flightradar24.com uses ADS-B data for their detailed displays.

[zipper]

"The past year has seen tremendous growth in the portable ADS-B receiver market. For less than $1,000 you can now have subscription-free in-flight weather, GPS, traffic and a backup attitude/heading display, all on your iPad."

http://ipadpilotnews.com/2013/04/portable-ads-b-receiver-buyers-guide/

[Yosemitest]

" Someone on another thread posted a link to a theory that the missing 777 used SIA68 (Singapore Airlines flight 68) to cloak their own airplane until they could get across the Indian Ocean, away from primary radar.

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68 "

That's a really good theory.

Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?Monday, March 17, 2014 - 12:01 AM EST
UPDATED: Monday, March 17, 2014 - 9:00 AM EST

But there's problems when you try to match it with the
the arc graph (click on it for more detailed info) that shows the estimated range of the aircraft with it's remaining fuel IF it was flying at its MAXIMUM SPEED or 7 hours 30 minutes of fuel.

Now, from the article:

this statement towards the end of his article.
" A satellite was able to pick up a ‘ping’ from the plane until 08:11 local time,
more than seven hours after it lost radar contact,
although it was unable to give a precise location.
Mr Razak went on to say that based on this new data, investigators ‘have determined the plane’s last communication with a satellite was in one of two possible corridors –
north from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through to northern Thailand,
and south from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean. "

My problem is ~ I don't know how accurate that Red Arc map is,
and I don't know whether to trust it or not.

I've been trying to match up the numbers on a "guess-ta-mated" flight path.

You can narrows down the search area if you take all the Satellite "Handshakes" into consideration for the search of runways/landing strips that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 could have landed on.

A look at Malaysia Airlines jet's mysterious course 04:03

The Way Point on the northwet side of her screen is "IGREX" on Jet Route "P628" where the heading changes to a more northerly direction 320 degrees to PORT BLAIR Navaid.

" ...roughly four hours after the jet dropped from civilian radar screens, these people said, the link operated in a kind of standby mode and sought to establish contact with a satellite or satellites.

That's a total airborne time of about 4 hours 40 minutes from takeoff.

The arc graph shows the estimated range of the aircraft with it's remaining fuel IF it was flying at its MAXIMUM SPEED or 7 hours 30 minutes of fuel.

Now, from the article:

this statement towards the end of his article.
" A satellite was able to pick up a ‘ping’ from the plane until 08:11 local time,
more than seven hours after it lost radar contact,
although it was unable to give a precise location.
Mr Razak went on to say that based on this new data, investigators ‘have determined the plane’s last communication with a satellite was in one of two possible corridors –
north from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through to northern Thailand,
and south from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean. "

That's 7 hours and 31 minutes after takeoff.

"... The plane departed for an overnight flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing at 12:40 a.m. on March 8.
Its communications with civilian air controllers were severed at about 1:20 a.m., and the jet went missing ... "

That leaves 2 Hours 50 minutes to travel from "IGREX" on Jet Route "P628 to an undefined point on that arc of 7 hours 30 minutes from takeoff.

Let's say that the pilot leans the engines out to get the most out of his fuel for distance with the remaining time for "IGREX" and gets 3 hours if time,
before he hits his 20 minutes safety margin on fuel and then starts to burn his 1 hour emergency fuel.
At maximum speed of Mach 0.89 (590 mph, 950 km/h, 512 knots) at a cruise altitude of 35,000 ft , that would allow him 1770 miles of distance (to the red arc), before hitting his reserves.

Let's assume that since he stayed on the Jet Routes, he continued to stay on the Jet Routes.

Now take that information and the arc ping map (important to view this map at this link for more details) along with the jet route map, and you can find possible links.

Now I run the numbers on the Jet Routes starting from "IGREX" on Jet Route "P628" and starting subtotaling for a target of 1770 Nautical Miles.
Take a look from SkyVector.com.

Jet Route P628 NW
IGREX 151 NM to Port Blair
Port Blair 272 NM to VATLA
VALTA 173 NM to URKOK
URKOK 172 NM to KAGUL
KAGUL 51 NM to DORIL
DORIL 99 NM to OPASA
OPASA 75 NM to IKINA
IKINA 28 NM to OPONI
OPONI 121 NM to ASOPO or JABALPUR
-----------
1,142 NM subtotal
---------------

Change route to W66 North to KHAJURAHO
ASOPO 97 NM to KKJ

Change route to W40 NNE via KANPUR to LUCKNOW
KJJ 72 NM to IGONA
IGONA 28 NM to LUCKNOW

Change route to M890 Northwest to SARSAWA
LUCKNOW 87 NM to JALABAD
JALABAD 65 NM to PUMOT
PUMOT 116 NM to SARAWA
--------------
1,607 NM Subtotal

SARAWA 27 NM to ONOGI
ONOGI 26 NM to CHANDIGARH (CHG)
CHG 73 NM to LAKET
LAKET 49 NM to SAMAR

Change Direction North to J220 to SIALKOT (SLT) Airport
SAMAR aprx 75 NM to SIALKOT Airport
------------------
1,857 NM

Now A different Route

From M890 at SARSAWA
--------------
1,607 NM Subtotal

Change route to W39 North to LEH
SARAWA 143 NM to LELAX
LELAX 101 NM to LEH
------------
1,851 NM Subtotal

Change route, direct to HOTAN approximately 030 heading
LEH approx 145 NM to HOTAN

Change Route, via SHACHE via KASHI
HOTAN apx 150 NM to SHACHE approx 310 heading
SHACHE 68 NM via A364 to KASHI

Change Route NNW via TADOT to BISHKEK MANAS
KASHI 100 NM to TADOT approximately 350 heading
TADOT 100 NM to BISHKEK MANAS Airport, Kyrgyzstan
--------------
2,414 NM Total (might be out of range)

==============================================

My Airport of Interest are:
UDHAMPUR (VIUX)
Runway [18 36] 9028.8 x 148 ft, Asphalt

Sialkot International Airport (IATA: SKT, ICAO: OPST)
Runway 22/04 11811 x 148 ASP

GILGIT (OPGT) Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Runway [07 25] 5385.6 x 98 ft, Asphalt
Runway 09 / 27 1003.2 x 49 ft / 306 x 15 m

Skardu Airport Pakistan (OPSD), IATA: KDU
Runway: 14/32 11944 Ft x 100 Ft ASP
Runway: 15/33 6501 Ft x 101 Ft ASP

======================

Reference radar targets, the most interesting targets I've seen is the B-52 and the Antonov An-225 Mriya.
When they get within about 10 NM of the radar, they give a double target, and sometimes a conflict alert, due to the tail return.

[zipper]

Excellent work. That's the kind of systematic approach that's needed to solve this mystery -- or at least to narrow the search region below a few thousand square miles!

My problem is ~ I don't know how accurate that Red Arc map is, and I don't know whether to trust it or not.

Unfortunately that arc could be even longer, since they are assuming maximum fuel consumption (max speed). And there are some further complicating factors -- the reports of wild gyrations in altitude, which would have also dramatically affected fuel consumption.

If it were me trying to get somewhere, and I had confidence that I could defeat the various primary radars in play, I wouldn't go at mach .89. I'd stretch the fuel consumption to increase my options; for contingency planning. That is, as long as I could still get to my destination almost entirely under darkness. I think the max-endurance range of mach numbers would be about mach .68 to mach .73, depending on the weight (long range cruise slows as fuel is burned off).

It would have been easy for this airplane to cloak itself visually. It was during the night, and they would have turned off their strobes and navigation lights with a couple of switch pushes on the external lighting panel. No other airplane would have likely seen them. They probably had a contrail, but nobody would have seen that either.

Question for you. How close to each other would two aircraft have to be to appear on the radar scope as one target? I suppose as you implied with the AN225 anecdote, it depends on the distance from the radar. How far away from the radar site would two 777's flying close trail have to be to appear as one target? I'm thinking of 200 feet spacing, both vertical and longitudinal. That would be a safe distance that even someone with no formation training could maintain, and even if they overshot speed-wise or bobbled with altitude that would be enough separation to avoid a collision. Would a typical controller notice a double image under those conditions right away?

I think the more recent news reports are making this scenario we are examining more likely, by the day.

[zipper]

They're talking about the SIA68 cloaking theory on Fox News now, one of two they mentioned.

The other one is smoke in the cockpit. The crew became incapacitated after isolating electrical systems, and flew on for hours until they crashed.

[Yosemitest]

Now you need a radar technician to answer those questions.
Much of what you want to know, depends on WHERE the radar is at in reference to azimuth, so here's a link to the basics.
Knock yourself out finding those answers.
All I know is, from a military controller's experience with war games and exercises, it CAN be done.

[Yosemitest]

Smoke in the cockpit, makes going in Oxygen through your mask ... very dangerous.

[Yosemitest]

Gen. McInerney said Allama [ Iqbal International ] Airport was the same distance from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 point of departure, Kuala Lumpuras, its original destination airport, Beijing, China.

Gen. McInerney also said that if Pakistan didn't speak up soon, they would be complicit.

Now I ask you, if you heard another large jet land at an International Airport that had on average 4 other arrivals all around the same time, would you suspect anything out of the ordinary ?
I just want to inform you that arrivals make a lot less noise than departures.
Also, from an air traffic controller's point of view, there ARE PROCEDURES for clearing a "RADIO OUT" or "NORDO" aircraft to land, and once the aircraft is safely down, it's up to the Airfield Base Operations Officer and the Fire Chief as to how to handle it.
They would probably have to fuel to refuel the 777 with little or no extra coordination.

Israel, are you listening?

[Atticus]

A couple of questions for those with more knowledge of the facts of this case and aviation generally than me. How do they know the co-pilot made the final transmission? Have they identified his voice and/or was it made from his microphone as opposed to the pilots? Has murder/suicide been ruled out, i.e. a scenario where one of the pilots kills/incapacitates the other, steers the plane on a certain direction, reprograms a course to “nowhere” and then offs himself? Why is that scenario any less plausible than the fire-in-the-cockpit theory, especially given the lack of a distress call?

[Yosemitest]

To protect the controllers, and to get "EVERY FACT POSSIBLE" for an incident/accident investigation, everything an air traffic controller does (in the United States and in the USAF) is recorded (radio, radar, and all documents are kept for a minimum time set by regulations.

"How do they know the co-pilot made the final transmission?
Have they identified his voice and/or was it made from his microphone as opposed to the pilots?"

I can guess that they played back the voice recordings from the control facility (center) in Malaysia, and his company supervisor identified his voice from the tapes.

"Has murder/suicide been ruled out,
i.e. a scenario where one of the pilots kills/incapacitates the other,
steers the plane on a certain direction,
reprograms a course to “nowhere”
and then offs himself? "

I can only guess that the answer is "yes" for most, but "no" for some.
The breaking up of a marriage and his wife taking his children is a powerful burden on his mind.
But I'd be watching her and the children, just in case that it's a "false flag" and she makes a sudden unannounced departure out of Malaysia.

The pilot was also upset about his favored political leader being sentenced to 5 years in prison,
and his motivation was to cost his government as much as possible.
Revenge tends to lean more toward doing damage to others and not to himself, because he would want to see the results of his actions (just my opinion).

"Why is that scenario any less plausible than the fire-in-the-cockpit theory, especially given the lack of a distress call?"

The "Fire-in-the-cockpit" theory, was addressed in Hannity's interviews, and the answer was inferred, and not directly announced.
A fire would not allow the extended flight time of several hours after the transponder was turned off, and would consume the aircraft and expedite its disintegration quickly in the air.
Fires in an aircraft flying at 540 knots rapidly spreads once the outer airflow starts to feed the fire.


Now, I HAVE A QUESTION FOR SOME NEWS REPORTER TO ASK AN "ACARS" EXPERT:

Reference the ACARS equipment on board the Boeing 777:
IF the ACARS box was removed from that aircraft and taken to another aircraft
and flown to another airport
and then powered up on a test bench or in another aircraft with it's antenna hooked up,
WOULD IT "PING" OR "HANDSHAKE" the Satellite with the same identity markings of the original Boeing 777 that it had been removed from ?

AND IF this was done, could it be done in such time as to "PING" OR "HANDSHAKE" the Satellite within the same hour time limit as the other pings or handshakes ?

Or is this impossible, even if you use battery power to keep the ACARS box active?
Or IS this some technical information that SHOULD BE KEPT SECRET ?

[zipper]

Smoke in the cockpit, makes going in Oxygen through your mask ... very dangerous.

The oxygen won't leak out of a properly fitted mask.

But the biggest issue is if you don't have 100 percent oxygen selected then the air that comes into the mask is all or part ambient air from the cockpit, contaminated with smoke.

[zipper]

Oh boy, I hope the Pakistanis are not in on this -- wouldn't be prudent, even with zero in charge..

I read that the Israelis are taking extra precautions (more than their usual extra precautions).

From a security standpoint, it's always prudent to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Ask any Israeli!

[Yosemitest]

Well, Pakistan is WHERE the nukes ARE.
And Pakistan is allied with Iran.

And the United States is so well respected by Pakistan ... NOT !

Have you not read Ezekiel 23 ?

[zipper]

Yes, I’m with you on that.

[Yosemitest]

I guess you read Comment #494.
Now with Gen. McInerney's comments on Hannity's Mar 21 show, take a look at this research I did, and all the links.
It took quite a bit of time to put it together.



Gen. McInerney on the phone with Uma Pemmaraju on America's News HQ at 12:06 Central Time, said he thought the Pakistan Air Force had helped MH370 get into Pakistani Air Space.

PAF Base Mushaf (formerly PAF Base Sargodha) (IATA: SGI, ICAO: OPSR) It has two runways measuring 10,000, and 7,700 feet respectively and a large hanger.

PAF Base Masroor (ICAO: OPMR) is the largest airbase operated by the Pakistan Air Force It is stated to have a single runways measuring 10,000 feet and a parallel taxiway that could be used for emergency landing and recovery of aircraft.
But look for yourself and see that it appears to have 2 long runways and several large hangers.

PAF Base Shahbaz (IATA: JAG, ICAO: OPJA) It is a military base operated by the Pakistan Air Force as well as a civilian airport.
It has a single runways measuring 10,000 feet and some large hangers.


PAF Base Rafiqui OPRQ It has a single 10,000 foot long runway and a parallel taxiway that could be used for emergency landing and recovery of aircraft.
I noticed one large hanger.


PAF Base Peshawar OPPS It has a a 8,900 foot long runway.Not to be confused with Peshawar Air Station.
It is … located immediately to the east of Peshawar International Airport, which is shared by civil aviation flights and military flights.
PAF Peshawar has an 8,900 foot long runway. It has one large hanger.
Peshawar Air Station was located in Badaber, a remote area about 4 miles (6.4 km) south of the city of Peshawar, Pakistan.
Peshawar Air Station is a former Central Intelligence Agency[1]-United States Air Force Security Service listening post, used by the 6937th Communications Group from 1958 until January 7, 1970, when the facility was formally closed.
Currently, the base is housed by Pakistan Air Force and is known as PAF Camp Badaber.

PAF Base M.M. Alam OPMI use to be PAF Base Mianwali and it has a 10,000 foot long runway. There is a parallel taxi way that could serve as an alternate runway in emergencies.
It also has a large hanger.

PAF Base Minhas OPMS has a 9,950 foot long runway.
But their is a parallel taxi way is marked as Runway 30R that could serve as an alternate runway in emergencies.
It has several large hangers, and a large camouflaged and extra long hanger south of Rwy 30 approach end and East of the exiting taxiway.

PAF Base Samungli OPQT has a single 12,010 foot long runway and a parallel taxiway marked as 13R/31L.
It has a large hanger and is also listed as Quetta Samungli Airport (UET).

PAF Base Nur Khan Airbase Chaklala renamed as Nur Khan Airbase and is part of Benazir Bhutto Islamabad International Airport OPRN
It's runaway is 10,809 x 150 feet and it has an intersecting taxiway that could be used for a runway (approximately 270/090 headings).
It has several large hangers and some have camouflaged roofs.

PAF Base Faisal OPSF Runway 08/26 approximately 8,000 ft (2438 m SkyVector World VFR) with several large hangers. some with camouflaged roofs.

Pakistan Air Force Academy is also know as OPRS - Risalpur Air Base.
It has two runways, Rwy 09R/27L is 9,085 X164 Ft of ASP, and Rwy 09L/27R is 5,840 X 164 Ft of ASP.
It also has a narrow parallel taxiway, and one large hanger.