Additionally, you won’t see as high a turnout for a non-black president among blacks, and the youth vote was in the initial stages of collapse in 2012 (down 6 points from 2008)
I see Hillary running in 2016 as a gift. She is not liked by many Dems, as evidenced by her losing to an unaccomplished Marxist in 2008. Blacks, especially, will stay home.