Crimea: all this virile cold war talk won't force Vladimir Putin to slink back

Guardian ^ | 03/25/2014 | Simon Jenkins

[goldstategop]

We know where this is likely to end. We will accept Russia's sovereignty over Crimea. Sanctions will be quietly dismantled, Moscow will reassure Kiev with a deal on neutrality. Nato will agree no further eastward expansion. The G7 will again become G8; and Crimea will join Tibet, Kosovo, East Timor, Chechnya, Georgia and other territorial interventions which history students will struggle to remember. But how do we get from here to there?...

Crimea must be a classic instance of a great power wrestling inside the shrunken straitjacket of imperial retreat, as Britain did, far more violently, half a century ago. As the Russian expert Susan Richards points out in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, Crimea is the most painful and potent symbol of Russia's lost glory. "It was backdrop for more great scenes of Russian culture than anywhere outside Moscow or St Petersburg," the resort and inspiration of Pushkin, Tolstoy, Chekhov and others. Its donation to Ukraine in 1954 was never likely to last.

Nato remains a bulwark against Russian revanchism, already dangerously close to Russia's border. Putin claims to understand it, and fiercely disavows any change to that state of affairs. As for Ukraine, we can chide Russia over respect for sovereign borders, if we have the cheek to do so. We can tell Russia to behave better towards small countries. But Putin will not return Crimea to Ukraine. Trying to make him do so is ridiculous. The real job is somehow to get out of this mess. I imagine Putin agrees.

[goldstategop]

The lead paragraph says it all. Crimea will stay Russian. The West will get used to it and accept it as a fact of life as it has learned to get along with every other disputed territory in contention on the planet. There will be a compromise over Ukraine, Russia will be allowed to rejoin the G-7 and life will go on. In a century, no one will remember or care about the quarrel over Crimea. Time has a way of healing grudges and resentments. And this is likely to be the last territorial border change we're going to see in Europe in the present century.

[Paladin2]

Putin is still restricted by Turkey.

[doc1019]

Vladimir has a set, be he right or wrong, he has a set ... unlike our dear leader. Where oh where is our leader? ... Oh, wait, we don’t have one. My bad.

[allendale]

Putin’s real crime is that he performed a nationalist act. Globalism is the ideal of the progressive Left. That is a prime factor in the decline of the West. Patriotism is passe.

[goldstategop]

Putin’s legacy is to restore Crimea to Russia. He wants to be remembered for that and Russians are profoundly grateful to him. And I think there will be a quiet compromise worked out between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the sanctions will be quietly dropped and every one will start doing business with Russia again. The West is not going to force Russia to do something no Russian leader would ever accept. But it beats a reversion to the Cold War, which is no one really wants.

[Mount Athos]

Not a chance.

There are all kinds of provinces all over Europe that would like to split off, whether to be independent or to unite with a different country.

The Flemish would like to split from Belgium. Catalan would like to split from Spain. Venice from Italy. There’s the Basque, Bosnia, there are dozens.
It might not seem in the realm of possibility now, but a whole lot can change in a century, and things can change very fast.

The USA bombed the hell out of Serbia to forcibly strip Kosovo from their soveriegn territory.

This seismic change in international law means we should expect the same to happen all over the world.

Crimea isn’t the last, it’s just the beginning. Actually Kosovo was the beginning.

[nickcarraway]

People aren't looking at this right. Putin taking Crimea (and possibly Ukraine) is the EASY part. Now he has to keep it. He's got a lot on his hands. Let's see how that works out for him.

By the way, what does Russia have to crow about. They are, "conquering," something that had already belonged to him.

Putin is excellent at bluffing with a weak hand, but at the end of the day, he still has a weak hand.

[Thunder90]

Ukraine will become a puppet of Russia again... And this time with a ruler that has an iron fist similar to what is in Belarus now. And the Berkut will come back.

[elhombrelibre]

Putin’s real legacy isn’t the hero worship he gets. It’s the cool $75 billion he’s stole from the Russian people. That’s what makes him an historic figure.

[elhombrelibre]

Putin's theft from the Russian people is his real crime, too. He may be an anti-globalist crusader to you, but he's a hugely corrupt politician in the way he governs Russia.

http://www.therichest.com/celebnetworth/politician/president/vladimir-putin-net-worth/

[Cold Heat]

Good grief...

More eternal optimists...

Ground up by the boots of eternal thugs.

[Netz]

The West and all her alliances are breaking up under the lack of US leadership and American inability to comprehend what is happening.
Russia is a strong and consistent supporter of her satellites, always there to bolster defenses while the US waffles and threatens economic sanctions all the time.
All bluster and no credible threat equals a “Paper Tiger”.

For the West, and especially countries like Israel, it's now a “everyman for himself” scenario. The saddest part is that it looks like President Obama STILL does not have a clue...

[Monmouth78]

Exactly. There are all kinds of ridiculous borders that won’t last for ever.